548 replies to this topic

[Hockey Mask]

I believe The Hobbit has fewer showtimes due to the length of the movie.  I saw The Hobbit this weekend and I thought it was pretty good.  Much better than the reviews were letting on.  It came across as a sort of LOTR Jr. In the end, The Hobbit will outperform Skyfall but Skyfall will still just hit $300 million in the US.

[Pussfeller]

How did you like the visuals? Did it look like a proper film?

[jamie00007]

I dont really get the 'fewer' showtimes thing. The Dark Knight Rises has the same running time and it made double. 

[Hockey Mask]

I went to a 24 fps showing.  I didn't have faith in the 48 fps and don't like 3D.  As far as the 2D version I saw it was tremendous and fits in nicely with the LOTR movies.  There was a scene witht the dwarvs in the beginning of the movie that involved dishes that looke below average but after that it was near perfect.  Gollum was fantastic.

[graric]

I dont really get the 'fewer' showtimes thing. The Dark Knight Rises has the same running time and it made double. 

 

The Dark Knight Rises was also coming out during a bigger film season, the summer season is considered the blockbuster season and most films tend to make most of their money in the first two weeks, Decemeber releases don't make nearly the same amount (The Hobbit as already broken the December opening week record) in their first few weeks...most of their money comes around the Christmas and New Year weeks (just look at how Avatar built up over time)

 

As for Word of Mouth not being positive, the reviewers might not be hyping the film that much, but Audiences appear to be enthusiastic (an A rating on Cinema Score places it on the same level as Skyfall...which would suggest the more mixed critical reception won't have too strong an effect on the Box Office.)

In anycase both Skyfall and The Hobbit should make 1 Billion at the Box Office at this point (although there is a chance that Skyfall may end up with slightly more)

Edited by graric, 17 December 2012 - 01:53 AM.

[Simon]

Well, it seems all my naysaying has been misguided.

 

If as they say, Skyfall will do $290m before it tops out, which takes it to $970m worldwide, I can now see the rest of the world doing at least another $20m which means China will take it over the $1bn mark.

 

It is quite incredible.

[x007AceOfSpades]

SKYFALL - The third highest grossing film of the year!

[Shrublands]

Well, it seems all my naysaying has been misguided.

 

If as they say, Skyfall will do $290m before it tops out, which takes it to $970m worldwide, I can now see the rest of the world doing at least another $20m which means China will take it over the $1bn mark.

 

It is quite incredible.

 

It's my belief it will do all that by the new year. ($290m+ in the U.S. and one billion word wide)

It won't top out in North America until it's passed $300m. (About $307m is my prediction) 

 

With China at the end of Jan, it will out gross TDKR. 

[Simon]

Really?

 

Ah yes.  I misread.  $290m Domestic by Xmas / New Year, not to the end of its life.

 

Ok, am sure you will be proved right.

[Shrublands]

Really?

 

Ah yes.  I misread.  $290m Domestic by Xmas / New Year, not to the end of its life.

 

Ok, am sure you will be proved right.

 

I think it will be very close, but I do think it can do it - just. (One billion by the new year)

I'm  looking forward to  the box office up dates on Monday December 31st with bated breath. Perhaps I should have said after the new year bank holiday on the 2nd of Jan, just to give myself a bit of elbow room 

[Hockey Mask]

 

I dont really get the 'fewer' showtimes thing. The Dark Knight Rises has the same running time and it made double. 

 

As for Word of Mouth not being positive, the reviewers might not be hyping the film that much, but Audiences appear to be enthusiastic (an A rating on Cinema Score places it on the same level as Skyfall...which would suggest the more mixed critical reception won't have too strong an effect on the Box Office.)

I am real interested to see what The Hobbit's run looks like.  For there to be such a big difference between reviewers and audience reactions I expect that there will be less drop off than expected over the next couple weeks.  Word of Mouth will win out overcritical reaction in the long run.

[Simon]

I think it will be very close, but I do think it can do it - just. (One billion by the new year)

I'm  looking forward to  the box office up dates on Monday December 31st with bated breath. Perhaps I should have said after the new year bank holiday on the 2nd of Jan, just to give myself a bit of elbow room 

 

 

2nd Jan it is sir.

 

Have a good Christmas ...

[volante]

 

I think it will be very close, but I do think it can do it - just. (One billion by the new year)

I'm  looking forward to  the box office up dates on Monday December 31st with bated breath. Perhaps I should have said after the new year bank holiday on the 2nd of Jan, just to give myself a bit of elbow room 

 

 

2nd Jan it is sir.

 

Have a good Christmas ...

 

Do I need to go see Skyfall again? I will if needed. With pleasure

[seawolfnyy]

US opening weekends:

 

Skyfall:   $88,364,714

 

The Hobbit:   $84,775,000

 

Note that The Hobbit opened in 500 MORE theaters than Skyfall. A possible indication that Skyfall will outgross The Hobbit?

[Hockey Mask]

The Hobbit had less showings because of running time--> Not sure how that balances out with 500 more theaters.  The Hobbit will (unfortunately) leave Skyfall in its dust when it is all said and done.  Well maybe not 'in its dust' but it will beat it by about $50 million.

[supernova]

Does anybody remember what the projected box office for Skyfall was at the beginning of its run? I can't recall, but think there was talk about the Producers looking for a U.S.$800 worldwide take.

 

Life of Pi has already taken U.S.$68 million box office in China -- so think that Skyfall -- with its Shanghai and Macau scenes will take over U.S.$80 million in China. I'm predicting a U.S.$1.1 billion total worldwide Box Office for Skyfall. Which would make it #6 on the all time best grossing movie list -- currently it is #18 on that list.

[seawolfnyy]

It may be too early to tell how well or poorly The Hobbit is going to end up doing.

[K1Bond007]

Does anybody remember what the projected box office for Skyfall was at the beginning of its run? I can't recall, but think there was talk about the Producers looking for a U.S.$800 worldwide take.

 

Life of Pi has already taken U.S.$68 million box office in China -- so think that Skyfall -- with its Shanghai and Macau scenes will take over U.S.$80 million in China. I'm predicting a U.S.$1.1 billion total worldwide Box Office for Skyfall. Which would make it #6 on the all time best grossing movie list -- currently it is #18 on that list.

 

MGM was saying over 800 million. BOM was saying over 900.

 

Not sure why you're comparing Skyfall to Life of Pi. Life of Pi may work better in China because of its regional background. Director, actors, themes. Who knows how Bond will do. Mission: Impossible did a little over 100 million, but Batman, Spider-Man, and the Expendables only did about 50 million. The latest Bourne (though not a hot commodity even here) did only 16 million. I think 50-60 seems about right. It definitely could do better than that, but who knows. There are a number of variables we don't even know. I just wouldn't compare it to Life of Pi.

[Chief of SIS]

The Hobbit had less showings because of running time--> Not sure how that balances out with 500 more theaters.  The Hobbit will (unfortunately) leave Skyfall in its dust when it is all said and done.  Well maybe not 'in its dust' but it will beat it by about $50 million.

 

Don't forget 'The Hobbit' makes 50% of its ticket sales from 3D. It under-performed this weekend. Unfortunate, but it will likely have legs through December.

[supernova]

 

Does anybody remember what the projected box office for Skyfall was at the beginning of its run? I can't recall, but think there was talk about the Producers looking for a U.S.$800 worldwide take.

 

Life of Pi has already taken U.S.$68 million box office in China -- so think that Skyfall -- with its Shanghai and Macau scenes will take over U.S.$80 million in China. I'm predicting a U.S.$1.1 billion total worldwide Box Office for Skyfall. Which would make it #6 on the all time best grossing movie list -- currently it is #18 on that list.

 

MGM was saying over 800 million. BOM was saying over 900.

 

Not sure why you're comparing Skyfall to Life of Pi. Life of Pi may work better in China because of its regional background. Director, actors, themes. Who knows how Bond will do. Mission: Impossible did a little over 100 million, but Batman, Spider-Man, and the Expendables only did about 50 million. The latest Bourne (though not a hot commodity even here) did only 16 million. I think 50-60 seems about right. It definitely could do better than that, but who knows. There are a number of variables we don't even know. I just wouldn't compare it to Life of Pi.

 

I realise that the Life of Pi and Skyfall are of different genres --  the reason I am using Life of Pi as a template is because the movie is a current box office achiever in China -- so gives some kind of idea of box office possibilities for non-Chinese films.

[Shrublands]

 

 

MGM was saying over 800 million. BOM was saying over 900.

 

 

 

That was the adjusted estimates after the results started to come in. Before, BOM said that Skyfall might not match CR and QoS.

MGM up'd their estimate to $800M for the conference call to investors once Skyfall was an international smash.

[supernova]

 

 

 

MGM was saying over 800 million. BOM was saying over 900.

 

 

 

That was the adjusted estimates after the results started to come in. Before, BOM said that Skyfall might not match CR and QoS.

MGM up'd their estimate to $800M for the conference call to investors once Skyfall was an international smash.

 

Wow. That's amazing. How nice to be blind-sided in such a positive way!

[Hockey Mask]

The questions are...

 

Can Bond 24 possibly live up to Skyfall's performance?

Has Skyfall blazed a new box office norm, at least for the near future?

[Double-0-Seven]

I'm happy to say my third viewing of Skyfall contributed $10 to Monday's performance yesterday.

[Sherlock]

Will DVD/Blu-Ray sales also equate into Skyfall's overall gross?

[Shrublands]

Will DVD/Blu-Ray sales also equate into Skyfall's overall gross?

 

Ordinarily, when you see a particular film's worldwide gross, it does not include DVD/Blu-ray sales.

[Sherlock]

Thanks.

[K1Bond007]

 

 

 

MGM was saying over 800 million. BOM was saying over 900.

 

 

 

That was the adjusted estimates after the results started to come in. Before, BOM said that Skyfall might not match CR and QoS.

MGM up'd their estimate to $800M for the conference call to investors once Skyfall was an international smash.

 

 

I don't remember BOM ever saying that. Skyfall was always tracking well. That said, Skyfall still beat even the wildest expectations. Nobody saw it doing near 300m US / 1billion world.

[Shrublands]

I don't remember BOM ever saying that. 

 

Franchise Forecast 2012.

 

...One disappointing movie can't kill his  (Bond's) mojo. This might not reach the same levels as Craig's other entries, but it is still guaranteed to be a late year hit.

 

http://www.boxoffice...id=3337&p=s.htm

[K1Bond007]

 

I don't remember BOM ever saying that. 

 

Franchise Forecast 2012.

 

...One disappointing movie can't kill his  (Bond's) mojo. This might not reach the same levels as Craig's other entries, but it is still guaranteed to be a late year hit.

 

http://www.boxoffice...id=3337&p=s.htm

 

 

It's from January. That's hardly something to hold them to. They never considered (or knew) 2012 was the 50th anniversary of James Bond, had any idea Bond would take part in a much reported Olympics stunt, feature a well-received theme song, or that the movie would be as well-received as it turned out to be.

 

And BOM based that and other predictions of theirs on its predecessors and its success/failure. Not a good indicator especially for James Bond. We all do it though so it was about in line with what everyone else was expecting. But BOM is usually pretty bad at predicting the popularity of a movie especially when said movie is a solo outing without a series to base it on. When it finally hit and they saw the numbers, their estimates changed. Hence that 900 million. Skyfall had staying power internationally though, I don't think they expected that.