548 replies to this topic

[Hockey Mask]

My 3 predictions...

 

1. One billion worldwide is a given. 

2. I'm betting it just makes 300 million in the US.

3. It will be trampled by The Hobbit.

[Royal Dalton]

It might make more than The Hobbit. But I think Les Misérables will trump both of them. That film's going to do huge business.

[SecretAgentFan]

Good joke!

[thecasinoroyale]

I agree SAF - 'The Hobbit' is going to do brilliant December business, but it won't match 'Skyfall' in terms of longevity, mass appeal and box office numbers.

[graric]

I agree SAF - 'The Hobbit' is going to do brilliant December business, but it won't match 'Skyfall' in terms of longevity, mass appeal and box office numbers.

 

Going by predicted numbers for The Hobbit, it would have to perform significantly below expectations in order to not match Skyfall.
Even not taking into account inflation Skyfall is yet to match the Box Office of any film in The Lord of the Rings trilogy...even taking into account a potential drop in audience in the last ten years The Hobbit will have the benefit of 3D prices boosting its final gross (something Skyfall and the LOTR films did not.)

The Hobbit is already predicted to be doing between 130 and 190 million this weekend in the US and around most box office analysts are predicting around 350- 400 million final domestic gross...so if The Hobbit makes anything less than 900 million that will considered a major financial disappointment.

While critically The Hobbit looks unlikely to match Skyfall it has appeared to be more positively received by fans that have seen the film (and it has a fan base of at least the size of Harry Potter)...Remember when Return of the King made 1 billion it was the second film to do so, now it is considered the bench mark of a blockbuster (The Hobbit is one of the few films almost guaranteed to come close to 1 billion, if not pass it.)

Skyfall may earn more than The Hobbit or The Hobbit may earn more than Skyfall, but The Hobbit will almost certainly match Skyfall (and is one of the few films that would be considered a box office failure if it didn't) 
 

[thecasinoroyale]

What you say is true, I just feel it's not going to have the impact that the 'LOTR' trilogy did - but no way is it not going to rack up the millions. I think 'Skyfall' actually has more appeal with the mass audiences, rather than the narrow fan-base of sitting through something as alien as 'The Hobbit' - but 3D will do well.

 

Then, 'Avatar' did also, but 'Skyfall' beat that in the UK?

 

Guess we'll have to wait and see, but I agree it's not going to be far from either getting out on top this year of big earners.

[Hockey Mask]

Hobbit will crush Skyfall...unfortunately.

[Shrublands]

Even not taking into account inflation Skyfall is yet to match the Box Office of any film in The Lord of the Rings trilogy

 

 

 

Umm... not really true...

 

Fellowship of the Ring = $871.5m

The Two Towers = $926m

Return of the King = $1,119.9m

 

Skyfall = $918.2m and counting.

 

That's more than 'Fellowship of the Ring' and about to pass 'The Two Towers'.

 

http://www.boxoffice.../alltime/world/

[Yellow Pinky]

The other issue that is a factor here is that The Hobbit will be taking over a lot of the screens that are currently showing SF, including IMAX screens and the larger capacity multiplex theater screens.  That's more seats in more theaters for a very high profile, highly anticipated release (The Hobbit).

[graric]

 

Even not taking into account inflation Skyfall is yet to match the Box Office of any film in The Lord of the Rings trilogy

 

 

 

Umm... not really true...

 

Fellowship of the Ring = $871.5m

The Two Towers = $926m

Return of the King = $1,119.9m

 

Skyfall = $918.2m and counting.

 

That's more than 'Fellowship of the Ring' and about to pass 'The Two Towers'.

 

http://www.boxoffice.../alltime/world/

 

 

You're right, sorry, I was getting Fellowships numbers confused with The Two Towers...Hopefully Skyfall will end up pass Return of the King

 

What you say is true, I just feel it's not going to have the impact that the 'LOTR' trilogy did - but no way is it not going to rack up the millions. I think 'Skyfall' actually has more appeal with the mass audiences, rather than the narrow fan-base of sitting through something as alien as 'The Hobbit' - but 3D will do well.

 

Then, 'Avatar' did also, but 'Skyfall' beat that in the UK?

 

Guess we'll have to wait and see, but I agree it's not going to be far from either getting out on top this year of big earners.

I think the key to passing Avatar in the UK is the very fact that Bond is British, and it was the 50th Anniversary (in the same year as a Jubilee and Olympics which all help give Bond a huge boost)...The Hobbit is also an iconic British property, so it should also do well in Britain (maybe not top Avatar, but substantial numbers.)

I think you are underestimating the popularity of The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings by referring to it as a 'narrow fan-base'/ the book has never been out of print in 75 years! It actually has the potential to be more popular with the general audience than Lord of the Rings (The story is more child-friendly and easier to follow...it will depend on how the story is split up of course as to how well the general audience receives it) 

[FOX MULDER]

 

Even not taking into account inflation Skyfall is yet to match the Box Office of any film in The Lord of the Rings trilogy

 

 

 

Umm... not really true...

 

Fellowship of the Ring = $871.5m

The Two Towers = $926m

Return of the King = $1,119.9m

 

Skyfall = $918.2m and counting.

 

That's more than 'Fellowship of the Ring' and about to pass 'The Two Towers'.

 

http://www.boxoffice.../alltime/world/

 

 

Fellowship of the Ring (2001) adjusted to today's money is: $1,138,942,177.9

 

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

 

By the same conversion Skyfall, in 2001, would be: $702,591,681.55

[FOX MULDER]

James Bond film series worldwide box office, adjusted to 1965 money (the year of the most successful Bond film, Thunderball):

 

Correct as of Monday 10 December, 2012

 

1. Thunderball - $141,200,000

2. Goldfinger - $126,914,516

3. Skyfall - $125,040,226

4. Live And Let Die - $114,790,540

5. You Only Live Twice - $105,251,497

6. The Spy Who Loved Me - $96,371,287

7. Casino Royale - $93,182,031

8. Moonraker - $91,245,867

9. Diamonds Are Forever - $90,222,222

10. Quantum of Solace - $86,567,769

11. From Russia With Love - $80,172,580

12. Die Another Day - $75,631,892

13. Goldeneye - $73,671,542

14. On Her Majesty's Secret Service - $70,381,471

15. The World Is Not Enough - $68,394,452

16. For Your Eyes Only - $67,678,217

17. Tomorrow Never Dies - $66,631,680

18. The Man With The Golden Gun - $62,361,054

19. Dr No - $61,319,006

20. Octopussy - $59,299,698

21. The Living Daylights - $53,017,605

22. A View To A Kill - $44,681,977

23. License to Kill - $39,671,459

[FOX MULDER]

In today's money, Skyfall needs to make another $28,795,648 in order to pass Goldfinger and become the 2nd most successful Bond film of all time.

 

It needs to do another $118,667,631 to pass Thunderball.

[Shrublands]

 

 

Even not taking into account inflation Skyfall is yet to match the Box Office of any film in The Lord of the Rings trilogy

 

 

 

Umm... not really true...

 

Fellowship of the Ring = $871.5m

The Two Towers = $926m

Return of the King = $1,119.9m

 

Skyfall = $918.2m and counting.

 

That's more than 'Fellowship of the Ring' and about to pass 'The Two Towers'.

 

http://www.boxoffice.../alltime/world/

 

 

Fellowship of the Ring (2001) adjusted to today's money is: $1,138,942,177.9

 

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

 

By the same conversion Skyfall, in 2001, would be: $702,591,681.55

 

 

But I was responding to a statement that read, "Even not taking into account inflation..."

[Simon]

I've been saying it for a while, it will reach one billion without China, with China it might even out gross TDKR.

Even with the Hobbit, it will pass $950m by next Monday.

In fact, (I'm feeling brave here) I think Skyfall will get to a billion before the end of the year.

 

 

And I raise with this: SKYFALL will be more successful than THE HOBBIT.

 

Ok fellas.

 

I salute your confidence and ability to stand up and be counted.

 

I of course would be very happy to see you are right, no question.  I am brand new to boxofficemojo but upon seeing the Skyfall figures, am now an avid reader.

 

Best of luck with yor statements.

[thecasinoroyale]

I can't call it - but feel 'Skyfall' will have the edge on 'The Hobbit'. From what I've read, it's a nice looking film but some find it a chore to sit through to get to the narrative moving foward, and consider this is part one of three, taken from just one book so it's going to be a long one and may not suit people for repeat viewings as 'Skyfall' could?

[SecretAgentFan]

THE HOBBIT definitely has the nerd base. But early reviews are mixed. Of course, everybody will want to see the film. The question is: how many times? Repeat business is huge for SKYFALL - but will THE HOBBIT manage that, too? The huge running time will also be a negative factor for that.

[Elvenstar]

yes the running time is what may hurt the Hobbit the most

especially with children

 

 Im a big LOTR fan & will see the movie about 4 times anyway

Im almost sure it will pass 1 bil

Edited by Elvenstar, 13 December 2012 - 07:12 AM.

[SecretAgentFan]

yes the running time is what may hurt the Hobbit the most

especially with children

 

 Im a big LOTR fan & will see the movie about 4 times anyway

Im almost sure it will pass 1 bil

 

The long running time, I guess, is not a problem with kids (only for the adults who have to accompany them to the bathroom again and again).

 

It´s more a problem for the scheduling within the theatres: you can´t get as many showings in a day. Hence, less box office returns. But if the film catches on they will show the film around the clock.

[FOX MULDER]

Update (adjusted to 2012 money):

 

1. Thunderball - $1,036,887,631

2. Goldfinger - $931,983,654

3. Skyfall - $921,014,319

 

Just less than $11 million more to go and Skyfall will officially overtake Goldfinger for the number 2 spot.

 

[as of 12/12/12]

[Matt_13]

That's silly. Absolutely incredible.

[Berni99]

From Box Office Mojo

 

$951,066,000

 

 

[Hockey Mask]

And about 900,000 tickets away from passing YOLT in the US.

[Double-0-Seven]

According to Box Office Mojo, the current worldwide total is $951,066,000. Less than $50 million away from the big $1 billion! It might even come close before China, and considering how well something like Life of Pi has been doing in China, I think we can expect Skyfall to do some solid numbers.

[TheLion]

Let's hope it makes to one billion. 

[Hockey Mask]

It will definately make it to 1 billion worldwide and 300 million in the States.

Edited by 00Hockey Mask, 16 December 2012 - 09:09 PM.

[thecasinoroyale]

Only Georgi Koskov can sum 'Skyfall's performance up...

 

"Superb, Mister Bond! Superb!"

[Iceskater101]

Eh I think the Hobbit could beat Skyfall, I mean just because the LOTR movies didn't make what Skyfall made doesn't mean that the Hobbit can't do it. I think it can.

[jamie00007]

Well The Hobbit's opening weekend was smaller than Skyfall (even with the added advantage of the 3D surcharge) and reviews and word of mouth about the film arent all that glowing, so it certainly has an uphill struggle just to come close to Skyfall.

[Iceskater101]

Yeah I want to see the Hobbit so I can see what we are dealing with.