1228 replies to this topic

[kneelbeforezod]

The most important word of mouth is in... my parents! Both in their late 60s, Connery fans, didn't like the Brosnan era: they loved QOS. My dad didn't understand it but didn't care.

So everyone relax, my parents liked it, that's all the word of mouth you need

[madler007]

QoS in 9 days will do more in U.S. than Hellboy2 & Mama Mia combined did in 3 weeks.

[dinovelvet]

Bomb. Bummer.

Are you being serious or sarcastic?

Dunno. Time will tell.

Seriously, Loomis? Its well on track to beat DAD and CR, to be highest grossing (unadjusted) Bond film to date in the USA, take that to the bank. Anyone who says otherwise is just deliberately being pessimistic just for the hell of it, and is not in touch with reality. $200 million? Very possible indeed, and either way, it is far too early to definitively rule it out, as certain parties have already done

[Bonita]

QoS in 9 days will do more in U.S. than Hellboy2 & Mama Mia combined did in 3 weeks.

Hellboy II - budget $85 million / Domestic theatrical gross - $75.8 million
Mamma Mia! - budget $52 million / Domestic theatrical gross - $143.7 million

QoS - budget $200 million reported
(figures from boxofficemojo.com)

So the scale by which success is measured is a bit different.

That said, let's hope that it cracks $210 million domestic gross!

keep dancing...

[Publius]

The most important word of mouth is in... my parents! Both in their late 60s, Connery fans, didn't like the Brosnan era: they loved QOS. My dad didn't understand it but didn't care.

So everyone relax, my parents liked it, that's all the word of mouth you need

My grandparents had a similar reaction. Both born in Cuba during the 30s, they became fans of the (then new) Bond series shortly after arriving here circa 1961. They loved CR, and likewise were thrilled by QoS. Had no trouble following most of it, for what it's worth.

Anyway, regarding whether QoS is on track to reach $200 million... let's just say that even if it stops at exactly that amount, it will have made just under 34% of its total in its opening weekend, an unusually high percentage. By comparison, even DAD (which had much worse reviews) made 29% of its total in its opening weekend, and adjusted for inflation its opening weekend wasn't that much less than that of QoS.

Or, put another way, it's a safe bet that QoS will make $200 million domestically.

[jaguar007]

My 69 year old mother went to see it. She loved Connery but never cared much about any of the other Bonds. She really liked it, but she also really liked CR. She thinks CR is the best Bond movie and likes Craig better than Connery - something I never thought would happen.

As far as the box office decline compared to CR, it is a slightly different situation. CR did not have as big of an opening because much of the public did not know what to think of Craig (with all the bad press and all). The reviews and word of mouth were great so the box office decline of CR was less than the typical Hollywood movie. QoS opened much higher due to the success of CR but is dropping faster than CR because most of the people who saw CR in the 2nd or 3rd week of release went to see QoS its opening weekend.

[SecretAgentFan]

Well, hate to be the bearer of of not the greatest news, but Tuesday's b.o. dropped from Monday. Just a 1.9% drop according to Boxofficemojo. This is not great news.

But, the film is still pulling in $4 million a day. If that holds through Thurs. that's $16 million. It would be great to do over $30 for the weekend and another $40 over Thanksgiving. That brings it to striking distance of Casino's gross.

Keep dancing...

And why do film´s box office results drop during the week?

And why do you only point to the drop of QOS and not the other films?


Keep thinking...

[Jim]

I'm not sure what point is being sought to be proven here.

[Bonita]

Well, hate to be the bearer of of not the greatest news, but Tuesday's b.o. dropped from Monday. Just a 1.9% drop according to Boxofficemojo. This is not great news.

But, the film is still pulling in $4 million a day. If that holds through Thurs. that's $16 million. It would be great to do over $30 for the weekend and another $40 over Thanksgiving. That brings it to striking distance of Casino's gross.

Keep dancing...

And why do film´s box office results drop during the week?

And why do you only point to the drop of QOS and not the other films?


Keep thinking...

Let me try to explain: Monday is usually the worst day at the box office for a film. There are exceptions-particularly films that draw mainly teenage boys. But generally, Monday's are bad unless it is a holiday weekend. A good way to judge if a film that appeals to a slightly older audience and is getting good word of mouth is to look at a non-holiday Tuesday to see how much the Box Office jumped from Monday's low. I'll give Mamma Mia! as an example. The first Monday of release - July 21, the film did $4.09 mil. July 22, Tuesday, it did $4.43. Up 8.3%. This is not great, but solid. Next Tuesday, it's up 16.2% from Monday.In fact, EVERY TUESDAY, the film is up except Labor Day Tuesday and Columbus Day Tuesday. Why? The film got good word of mouth. In fact, even though it opened to less than half the weekend gross of Quantum, it made $4 mil a day its first week, just like Quantum is doing now.

But not all films perform better on Tuesdays than Mondays.

Let's look at a film that does not conform to my point - Iron Man. Hugely successful film. It does not show the Tuesday jump until very late in its run. But it does great business on the weekends. The fall offs for Sunday are around 30% compared to Saturday. Quantum drops 43% from Saturday to Sunday. The Dark Knight does the same thing (not show a Tuesday jump) until late in its run (and it's still playing). It takes six Sundays for it to show a 30% drop from Saturday. Opening weekend, it only dropped 8.5% from Saturday! But like Iron Man, The Dark Knight skews younger than Mamma Mia! But those films also skew younger than Bond.

Yet, Quantum had a big Sunday drop - more than the research firms predicted it would have. They are pretty good at understanding what the average numbers should be on a Sunday and making a solid weekend projection. When they are wrong, it is usually because something is over or under-performing. The next test for Quantum was what would its Tuesday jump be? Well, it was slightly negative. So let's say Quantum is following the Iron Man / Dark Knight mold - younger audience. Why wasn't Sunday better? Mamma Mia! ran nine weeks before it had a Sunday fall even close to Quantum's fall its opening Sunday.

Point is, no matter how I examine these numbers, Quantum is looking wobbly for the long-term. Now I want to be wrong. I love this film. I want it to break $250 mil just because I want Bond to be a blockbuster in the US, particularly a Bond like this one. I hope next weekend and Thanksgiving weekend are spectacular.

But even with its performance so far, records and all, I just want it to do better overall.

Now, if it ends up making $250 mil domestic, please feel free to mock me and have sport at all my anxiety!

Keep dancing...

[Elvenstar]

Agree with blueman's remark about the arthouse nature of Qos and it's reflection on BO. And the more I think about it the more I start to be indifferent to BO numbers in US and elsewhere.
I start thinking about Bond 23. If Qos is less a success than CR it can be a good thing for the next. Maybe the producers will go and make a more public friendly Bond film (hope it doesn't translate to "cheesy"). We will still have Qos.
But on the other hand BO success is vital for the possibility of Bond 23 (crisis and all that doom).
As 4 WOM of course I can't get all of the opinions but of all the boards and comments to reviews I read nearly 80% are negative. It's quite interesting that critics love Qos more than general public. So Qos is indeed not everyones cup of tea. And I quite like that honestly. Im very glad that we have this brave film.

[blueman]

Agree with blueman's remark about the arthouse nature of Qos and it's reflection on BO. And the more I think about it the more I start to be indifferent to BO numbers in US and elsewhere.
I start thinking about Bond 23. If Qos is less a success than CR it can be a good thing for the next. Maybe the producers will go and make a more public friendly Bond film (hope it doesn't translate to "cheesy"). We will still have Qos.
But on the other hand BO success is vital for the possibility of Bond 23 (crisis and all that doom).
As 4 WOM of course I can't get all of the opinions but of all the boards and comments to reviews I read nearly 80% are negative. It's quite interesting that critics love Qos more than general public. So Qos is indeed not everyones cup of tea. And I quite like that honestly. Im very glad that we have this brave film.

Fan polls here and at MI6 have most (75% to 80%) of Bond fans rating QOS at least 7/10. I think what your reading is an extremely vocal minority, most fans are middle of the road on QOS.

[Bond Bug]

AN APOLOGY

I now appreciate that the tone of my posts about Box Office were too negative. Saying it would struggle to get to 160m was an exaggeration. I accept my posts were inflammatory. I am sorry if my posts upset anyone.

Of course I want Quantum to be successful and I want more people to see it and enjoy it than every before. This is what I have said many times. On post 42 on this very thread, I predicted it would outgross Casino.

However, I don't want to get into a big argument about whether or not the movie is doing well at the box office. Of course it is doing well. It has smashed opening records and has become the biggest Bond ever in several territories.

That said, when you compare the international success of the movie and you look at North America, I maintain that it has not held up so well and even its opening has not been as impressive even the studio predicted for Sunday. I think the debate over time will move from IF this is an issue to WHY this is. Why is it that America has not embraced this movie as most of the rest of the world have?

[Loomis]

I'm not sure what point is being sought to be proven here.

Personally, I'm trying to prove that QUANTUM OF SOLACE is a flop. Not quite sure why, but some of us set great store by this sort of thing, you know.

[DamnCoffee]

Not sure if anyone has picked up on this but Quantum of Solace has made it's way into the IMDb chart for top grossing films (Worldwide)

163. Quantum of Solace (2008) $327,312,342

I'm sure there is more to come yet.

[mario007]

Previously at box office mojo I have seen exit polls (audiance gradings for the movie)... havn't see them for QOS so far ... if they exist it would put an end to WOM speculations ...

I think as bond fans, whether we are over the moon or not about QOS ... we want the film to succeed at the box office ... so the series can continue! Out of curiosity ... bondbug and bonita what do you think will be the US final take for QOS?

Edited by mario007, 20 November 2008 - 03:03 PM.

[Publius]

As far as the box office decline compared to CR, it is a slightly different situation. CR did not have as big of an opening because much of the public did not know what to think of Craig (with all the bad press and all). The reviews and word of mouth were great so the box office decline of CR was less than the typical Hollywood movie. QoS opened much higher due to the success of CR but is dropping faster than CR because most of the people who saw CR in the 2nd or 3rd week of release went to see QoS its opening weekend.

Exactly. CR was an outlier. QoS looks to be performing more normally for an action blockbuster.

As 4 WOM of course I can't get all of the opinions but of all the boards and comments to reviews I read nearly 80% are negative. It's quite interesting that critics love Qos more than general public.

Actually, its score on RottenTomatoes is highest among regular people, lower among critics, and substantially lower among "cream of the crop" critics.

On BoxOfficeMojo, it has a grade of B, lower only than CR and Goldfinger (both B+). In fact, almost every Bond film has a grade of B on BOM.

On IMDB, it's currently at 7.2/10. CR has the highest average rating at 8.0/10, with most Bond films below 7.0/10.

I think the WOM seems bad because everyone's comparing it to CR, which had unusually good WOM, and the negative voices are always the loudest, as anyone who remembers the run-up to CR can attest to.

[Bond Bug]

Out of curiosity ... bondbug and bonita what do you think will be the US final take for QOS?

Thank you for your question. At the moment I would say around 180m. I would guess it would drop around 55% next weekend. As more movies outgross it each weekend it becomes less significant as an attraction. IMO, the main thing it has going for it is the Bond brand, not word of mouth. Compare what will happen in the next weeks in USA to the many overseas markets where it held the number one position for more than one weekend.

[SecretAgentFan]

Well, hate to be the bearer of of not the greatest news, but Tuesday's b.o. dropped from Monday. Just a 1.9% drop according to Boxofficemojo. This is not great news.

But, the film is still pulling in $4 million a day. If that holds through Thurs. that's $16 million. It would be great to do over $30 for the weekend and another $40 over Thanksgiving. That brings it to striking distance of Casino's gross.

Keep dancing...

And why do film´s box office results drop during the week?

And why do you only point to the drop of QOS and not the other films?


Keep thinking...

Let me try to explain: Monday is usually the worst day at the box office for a film. There are exceptions-particularly films that draw mainly teenage boys. But generally, Monday's are bad unless it is a holiday weekend. A good way to judge if a film that appeals to a slightly older audience and is getting good word of mouth is to look at a non-holiday Tuesday to see how much the Box Office jumped from Monday's low. I'll give Mamma Mia! as an example. The first Monday of release - July 21, the film did $4.09 mil. July 22, Tuesday, it did $4.43. Up 8.3%. This is not great, but solid. Next Tuesday, it's up 16.2% from Monday.In fact, EVERY TUESDAY, the film is up except Labor Day Tuesday and Columbus Day Tuesday. Why? The film got good word of mouth. In fact, even though it opened to less than half the weekend gross of Quantum, it made $4 mil a day its first week, just like Quantum is doing now.

But not all films perform better on Tuesdays than Mondays.

Let's look at a film that does not conform to my point - Iron Man. Hugely successful film. It does not show the Tuesday jump until very late in its run. But it does great business on the weekends. The fall offs for Sunday are around 30% compared to Saturday. Quantum drops 43% from Saturday to Sunday. The Dark Knight does the same thing (not show a Tuesday jump) until late in its run (and it's still playing). It takes six Sundays for it to show a 30% drop from Saturday. Opening weekend, it only dropped 8.5% from Saturday! But like Iron Man, The Dark Knight skews younger than Mamma Mia! But those films also skew younger than Bond.

Yet, Quantum had a big Sunday drop - more than the research firms predicted it would have. They are pretty good at understanding what the average numbers should be on a Sunday and making a solid weekend projection. When they are wrong, it is usually because something is over or under-performing. The next test for Quantum was what would its Tuesday jump be? Well, it was slightly negative. So let's say Quantum is following the Iron Man / Dark Knight mold - younger audience. Why wasn't Sunday better? Mamma Mia! ran nine weeks before it had a Sunday fall even close to Quantum's fall its opening Sunday.

Point is, no matter how I examine these numbers, Quantum is looking wobbly for the long-term. Now I want to be wrong. I love this film. I want it to break $250 mil just because I want Bond to be a blockbuster in the US, particularly a Bond like this one. I hope next weekend and Thanksgiving weekend are spectacular.

But even with its performance so far, records and all, I just want it to do better overall.

Now, if it ends up making $250 mil domestic, please feel free to mock me and have sport at all my anxiety!

Keep dancing...

Yes, but... IRON MAN/DARK KNIGHT were released in the summer. And they had different target audiences than QOS.

That´s all I´m saying. You cannot compare these films without taking into account every factor. And it appears to me that you and some others (no offense) just compare the numbers and conclude that QOS is lacking - in order to prove that a lack of B.O. returns means that QOS is not accepted by the public as a worthy Bond film, meaning that it is a bad film and all the people who try to defend it here (me included) don´t want to look at the facts.

Which I honestly ask you to do.

I´m still dancing...

[Bonita]

Yes, but... IRON MAN/DARK KNIGHT were released in the summer. And they had different target audiences than QOS.

That´s all I´m saying. You cannot compare these films without taking into account every factor. And it appears to me that you and some others (no offense) just compare the numbers and conclude that QOS is lacking - in order to prove that a lack of B.O. returns means that QOS is not accepted by the public as a worthy Bond film, meaning that it is a bad film and all the people who try to defend it here (me included) don´t want to look at the facts.

Which I honestly ask you to do.

I´m still dancing...

I LOVE this film. Check out my review: http://debrief.comma...showtopic=51624

This is a forum to track box office. And I try to do that as coldly and ruthlessly as Bond would pursue that mission. I would love the film to make $250 mil US. But the numbers I see don't justify that hope right now. Nor does the word-of-mouth from my limited circle of knowledge. That said, I would very much like the film to break through. I want to grab those who are turned off by the editing and say, hey, this film has some really interesting things going on!

But a box office forum isn't the place I'm going to do that. Here, I analyze the numbers.

Keep dancing...

[quantumofsolace]

Yes, but... IRON MAN/DARK KNIGHT were released in the summer. And they had different target audiences than QOS.

That´s all I´m saying. You cannot compare these films without taking into account every factor. And it appears to me that you and some others (no offense) just compare the numbers and conclude that QOS is lacking - in order to prove that a lack of B.O. returns means that QOS is not accepted by the public as a worthy Bond film, meaning that it is a bad film and all the people who try to defend it here (me included) don´t want to look at the facts.

Which I honestly ask you to do.

I´m still dancing...

I LOVE this film. Check out my review: http://debrief.comma...showtopic=51624

This is a forum to track box office. And I try to do that as coldly and ruthlessly as Bond would pursue that mission. I would love the film to make $250 mil US. But the numbers I see don't justify that hope right now. Nor does the word-of-mouth from my limited circle of knowledge. That said, I would very much like the film to break through. I want to grab those who are turned off by the editing and say, hey, this film has some really interesting things going on!

But a box office forum isn't the place I'm going to do that. Here, I analyze the numbers.

Keep dancing...

I faced this when I said the film would have a huge drop off because of negative WOM. I suddenly became a QoS hater when I actually love the film.

[avl]

I faced this when I said the film would have a huge drop off because of negative WOM. I suddenly became a QoS hater when I actually love the film.

But only in the US, right? (Genuine question, number crunchers)

[quantumofsolace]

I faced this when I said the film would have a huge drop off because of negative WOM. I suddenly became a QoS hater when I actually love the film.

But only in the US, right? (Genuine question, number crunchers)

Mainly, but it will also drop much faster than CR elsewhere because it is not as well liked . It won't play for so long and the returns will diminish in a shorter space of time. Thankfully, CR was so well liked that a bumper opening box office was guaranteed, despite many bad reviews.

[Bonita]

I faced this when I said the film would have a huge drop off because of negative WOM. I suddenly became a QoS hater when I actually love the film.

But only in the US, right? (Genuine question, number crunchers)

My vague knowledge of box office is limited to the US. I hope it continues to huge amounts overseas. But US trends are easy to track.

Always open to alternate views! And if the film drops by only 40% this weekend, you will hear shouts of joy from me.

Keep dancing...

[Bond Bug]

I faced this when I said the film would have a huge drop off because of negative WOM. I suddenly became a QoS hater when I actually love the film.

But only in the US, right? (Genuine question, number crunchers)

My vague knowledge of box office is limited to the US. I hope it continues to huge amounts overseas. But US trends are easy to track.

Always open to alternate views! And if the film drops by only 40% this weekend, you will hear shouts of joy from me.

Keep dancing...

If the film drops 40% or less I will give you any item you wish from my Bond collection.

[mario007]

I think it would drop 50-55% because of the competition ... plus, most people in the US will wait for the thanksgiving day weekend to see it. A 60% drop would be devastating imo!

Edited by mario007, 20 November 2008 - 07:53 PM.

[Bond Bug]

This is the situation in North America

It opened to the 38th biggest weekend

For the first seven days it will be at around number 54

How does that sound when compared to the biggest ever opening in UK and smashed records in many other territories?

Edited by Bond Bug, 20 November 2008 - 09:04 PM.

[blueman]

Sounds like a whopping big opening in the states for a Bond film - THE biggest in fact.

keep dancing...

[Bonita]

<<<<Out of curiosity ... bondbug and bonita what do you think will be the US final take for QOS?>>>

Here's where I have a very hard time prognosticating...

Today's Wednesday numbers are great as a Wednesday in November. They are chilling to me seeing the drops. QoS dropped from $4.05 mil on Tuesday to $3.3 mil on Wednesday, down 18%.

Perspective: You have to get to the first week of January for Casino Royale to drop over 18 percent from a Tuesday to a Wednesday.

Yet, here's what I'm really interested in...

Bond Bug has offered me an item from his Bond collection if the grosses stay high. So as a personally favor, I just want to ask that each and every one of you reading this forum in the US and Canada, please, grab your family and friends, co-workers and acquaintances. Explain that there is a potentially important piece of Bond memorabilia up for grabs. All they have to do is go see QoS THIS WEEKEND. What could be better than just before the onslaught of family and the high-pressure launch of the holiday season, than seeing a Bond film? Nothing. And if all of us collectively can make this thing of beauty happen, I'll get to trudge over to Bond Bug's and pick out the treasure of my choice? Are we up for it?

I hope so...

Keep dancing...

[Bond Bug]

<<<<Out of curiosity ... bondbug and bonita what do you think will be the US final take for QOS?>>>

Here's where I have a very hard time prognosticating...

Today's Wednesday numbers are great as a Wednesday in November. They are chilling to me seeing the drops. QoS dropped from $4.05 mil on Tuesday to $3.3 mil on Wednesday, down 18%.

Perspective: You have to get to the first week of January for Casino Royale to drop over 18 percent from a Tuesday to a Wednesday.

Yet, here's what I'm really interested in...

Bond Bug has offered me an item from his Bond collection if the grosses stay high. So as a personally favor, I just want to ask that each and every one of you reading this forum in the US and Canada, please, grab your family and friends, co-workers and acquaintances. Explain that there is a potentially important piece of Bond memorabilia up for grabs. All they have to do is go see QoS THIS WEEKEND. What could be better than just before the onslaught of family and the high-pressure launch of the holiday season, than seeing a Bond film? Nothing. And if all of us collectively can make this thing of beauty happen, I'll get to trudge over to Bond Bug's and pick out the treasure of my choice? Are we up for it?

I hope so...

Keep dancing...

If you win, the thing that will really bug me is not losing an item but having to open up my boxes of Bond stuff stored at the back of a cupboard to let you know what I have. I haven't opened them for over a year since I moved and I'm getting ready to move again. Anyway, I wish you luck.

I am going to make it easier for you in front of all these witnesses! Now I think there is a fair chance I could lose, but you caught me in a good mood. If you agree, I will send you something if the movie drops by less than 50% USA this weekend compared to the opening weekend. This is to be based on final actual figures shown on Box Office Mojo.

If the figures are more than a 50% drop you lose nothing. If they are less you can choose what you would like. I would give headings for you to choose from and then list what I have in those headings. Box office Guru is predicting a 50% fall and it is also getting near to Thanksgiving - so I think you are in with a pretty good chance!

Good luck!

[dinovelvet]

<<<<Out of curiosity ... bondbug and bonita what do you think will be the US final take for QOS?>>>

Here's where I have a very hard time prognosticating...

Today's Wednesday numbers are great as a Wednesday in November. They are chilling to me seeing the drops. QoS dropped from $4.05 mil on Tuesday to $3.3 mil on Wednesday, down 18%.

Perspective: You have to get to the first week of January for Casino Royale to drop over 18 percent from a Tuesday to a Wednesday.

"Chilling"...? Bit dramatic there, I think. CR's first Monday and Tuesday were in Thanksgiving week, so its an unfair comparison. Many people just take the whole week off, or have an extremely light/reduced work schedule = movies do better during that Mon/Tue/Wed than any other average week. In addition, groups of friends and families tend to "save" movies for the Thanksgiving period when they can all see them together.
Its just basic box office wisdom; take any two films, and more often than not, whichever one opened bigger, tends to drop faster. CR had an EXTREMELY unusual path for a blockbuster, starting with "only" $40 million and ending up with $167. Think of QOS as the hare, and CR as the tortoise, but QOS will actually win...