1228 replies to this topic

[Publius]

Quantum of Solace's opening weekend beat Casino Royale's by about $26.7 million. After four weeks in release, it's still ahead overall by about $22.4 million, a drop in its lead by less than $4.25 million.

Even if you assume it hemorrhages another net of $4.25 million in the next four weeks, and again in the four weeks after that (which would represent increasingly steep drops in percentage terms, given that it's already grossed ~80% of what will be its final amount), QoS would still lead CR by just under $14 million.

$167.4 + $14 = $181.4 million, or marginally above Casino Royale's inflation-adjusted take.

Looking at it another way, DAD grossed 81.9% of its total after four weeks, which if you extrapolate to QoS (based on its current estimate of $151.4 million) gives us a figure of $184.9 million.

On the other hand, CR had only grossed 77% of its total at the same point, which would translate to $196.6 million (which coincidentally matches DAD, Brosnan's most successful Bond film, in domestic ticket sales) for QoS.

I expect it to be closer to DAD, and maybe a little below, but it's good to know the ceiling (in terms of "legs"), which CR probably is.

Does anyone think piracy has affected the worldwide take?

Probably to a significant extent only in countries where the gross is relatively low anyway, like China and India, but even that was probably mitigated by them getting early release dates. I think yet another year of decline in movie attendance has hurt far more.

[bondrules]

New Bond Now Crosses $500M Worldwide

The breakdown for Quantum Of Solace, the second MGM/Sony actioner starring Daniel Craig and the 22nd film in the 46-year franchise, is domestic $151.4 and international $357.7. Playing in 74 markets, both foreign and North American numbers are on track to exceed the box office performance of Casino Royale.

http://www.deadlineh...500m-worldwide/

[blueman]

Box Office Mojo reports the official weekend estimate at US$6.6m (might be closer to 6.5m when the actuals are released tomorrow). Now what's important to note is that it is down another 65% from last week. When movies consistently drop at that alarming rate, they are fading fast. Added to this, the theatre drops also started with this current weekend, so QoS will be going into the Christmas holiday season with reduced theatres and a dwindling box-office.

Alarming, or typical? What films don't have such drops? I think you're reaching with that, QOS is still doing biz at a decent clip - not stunning doesn't equal alarming, just the norm (slightly better than the norm, I think it would spec out).

There's my reasoning for not thinking this movie will earn as much as the more optimistic members hope it will. (And although I'm not delighted with the film itself, that hasn't clouded my judgement).

Of course $500m+ worldwide is good BUT I am certain that both EON and SONY had higher anticipations, especially in the USA. Why else invest over $200m in it (which really wasn't evident on screen) and then there's all the promotional material, easily anothe $50m in the USA alone.

So it's "not successful" cuz you think EON and Sony had different expectations... link? Again, you're downgrading QOS's success on a supposition.

If I didn't see Bourne and didn't mind the fast-editing which made me wonder if I'm spatially challenged, I would have enjoyed Solace much more. Craig still shone out as Bond and remained the best thing in this movie.

Does anyone think piracy has affected the worldwide take? There is an exceptionally good copy (almost near-perfect) with an intermittent "For Your Consideration" subtitle which appears briefly every 20 minues or so that is circulating around. I know the Rapidshare police have their work cut out for them but as soon as links are removed, they are uploaded again.

Take out your over-reaction to the "alarming" drop, and the mind-reading of disappointed execs at EON and Sony, and QOS is STILL somehow managing to be successful in the states. $150m in 4 weeks is awesome no matter how one slices it. By the end of its run it'll be up there somewhere with recent Bond totals in the US, AND at top of the Bond chart for worldwide $$$ (modern era of course, nothing can touch the highs in the 60s).

Somehow, I'm not alarmed nor do I think EON/Sony execs are upset/peeved/etc., only very very happy. But that's me and my homer-vision goggles looking at BO for this rubbish-looking anti-Bond film. I guess since the 60s I never expect Bond to be at the top of the heap in the states when Hollywood has taken up that gauntlet and come up with quite a few homegrown heros to compete for those escapist entertainment dollars. Maybe a more Americanized Bond would make more money here? Gosh I'd hate to see that, keep Bond Bond and making the respectable $$$ stateside (while owning the world ). To my eyes that's the against-all-odds success of MGW and Babs post-DAD, that they could so successfully steer Bond away from being a generic superhero, and ground him firmly in his Fleming roots again. QOS is another benchmark in that regard as it's even further away from "Indy"-type films yet earning the $$$ it is. The series is in great shape right now IMO, both artistically and financially... been awhile since that could be said of it.

[Publius]

By the end of its run it'll be up there somewhere with recent Bond totals in the US,

Indeed, it looks likely to beat GE and TWINE in admissions and even money to beat CR. If it reaches $190 million, it'll pass FRWL for 7th place domestically. To give you an idea of how condensed the list is, 4th place is MR with about $200 million, while GE is currently 11th with $175 million. The average of the last five alone is a bit less than $185 million.

[mario007]

Definetly agree with you blueman. EON could have taken the easy route after DAD and instead of QOS we could have had DAD3. Even after taking the risk that was CR they had the balls to make QOS. They will keep pushing the envelope and I have full confidence they will give us a spectacular bond 23, with ian flemeng's bond and a little bit more traditional action/series elements for joe public.

I am sure some Brosnan supporters expected Danny and QOS to fall flat on its face ... so they can say 'i told you so'. CM007 I am looking at you (I am starting to think he might be sean brosnan). Fortunately, that did not happen and they are just peeved. I think hollywood executives would be more than happy to churn out bombs that make more than $150 million in a month ... and over $500 million world-wide ... some people need to get their heads examined! So what if this movie does not cross the $200 million mark in the US ... that is why there is bond 23 ...'james bond will return'

Edited by mario007, 07 December 2008 - 10:22 PM.

[blueman]

Side note: no new opener in the US topped QOS this weekend, and it came in ranked 5th at the BO, "Australia" edged it out for the "also-ran sweepstakes" - now there's a BO disappointment! Poor Hugh.

[HildebrandRarity]

Adjusted for inflation CR made about $182 million in the US. To compare the success you have to take the $182 million-figure.

Show me data to support your inflation-adjusted claim of $182 mil. Where is this number coming from?

It keeps going up and up. Yesterday it was supposedly $181 mil.

I'd like to know how the negative posters are arriving at that number given the fact that the US is experiencing deflation and that the US has been in a recession for a year officially.

[HildebrandRarity]

Dog Bond, I think there *may* have been an error made by Eon/Sony *if* they didn't hedge the currency risk back when the budget was set in the fall of 2007.

You know that there have been large currency moves which have made the UK and Euro and Swiss and Aussie and Latin American numbers come in lower than if the movie was released 4 months earlier.

Also, the US has not finished its run and there is still Japan to go.

I can see it hitting $600 million. If currencies were at the same level as 4 months ago, then the translated box office would be well north of $650.

Can you deny the fact that the depreciation of the Pound has cost Q0S $25 million US dollars in relation to CR from the UK alone? No you can't because the currency move is a FACT.

[mario007]

Could it be the one that cost over $200m to produce?

Since we are not dealing with hard facts ... I would argue that QOS cost the same as CR; $150 million and the other $50 or so came from companies who used the movie to advertise their products ... see the front page ... it calls bond a walking billboard ... interestingly enough ... I did not notice as many product placements in QOS as I did with CR ... maybe that is why MF edited the movie so fast because he was embarressed of all the product placements!

Edited by mario007, 08 December 2008 - 02:40 AM.

[blueman]

Weird that $151m in 4 weeks isn't thought of as good BO for a Bond film, but oh well.

[Publius]

Show me data to support your inflation-adjusted claim of $182 mil. Where is this number coming from?

They're probably using the Box Office Mojo estimate for the year's average ticket price. BOM in turn gets their finalized yearly average from the MPAA. Currently they estimate $7.08 for 2008. For comparison, they list $6.55 as the 2006 average, but I recall their early estimate being a few cents higher than that.

does anyone want to fathom a guess as to what is the LEAST most profitable James Bond film (theatrical receipts only) as of the moment?

TWINE, which had a net loss of about $14 million (in 1999 dollars). Still, it more than made everything back when it moved to the home video market.

Come on, the screws at SONY and EON wanted more and you know it....$150m more would have been awesome...

Duh. Breaking even in its theatrical run is a win, considering how much box office has been declining for years (no wonder the industry suits swear by inflation-distorted numbers) and how most films, especially Bond films, make their real money (and a perpetual source of it, as opposed to the finite revenue of box office) from the home video and other markets.

So, again, we all wish it had done better, it's not a raging phenomenon (although neither was CR, despite its unusually widespread positive reception), but it has been and will finish a moderate success, no different than its five immediate predecessors.

And there's still no reason for you to be, err, acting the way you are. I know you don't like the film and I do wish you did, but it really does border on trolling to continually stir the way you've been going about it. Although I don't think you've been expressing yourself in a constructive way, it would at least be on-topic in any of the numerous discussions we have elsewhere about the film itself.

[Publius]

You're calling me a troll because you don't like what I say.

No, I'm saying you're bordering on trolling because of how you're going about it. You're acting like a child. If MI6 is cool with that style of "discussion," let them have you. I don't care what your personal opinion is of this film (or any other Bond film, novel, etc.), I just can't stand the playground-caliber debates.

like people actually going to see the movie.

21 million people have already seen it.

Here's the biggest letdown of all. Box Office Mojo reported this tonight.

Quantum of Solace collapsed 65 percent in its fourth weekend to an estimated $6.6 million, grossing less than predecessor Casino Royale on that timeframe. It was the biggest post-Thanksgiving fall ever for a James Bond movie. The tally grew to $151.5 million in 24 days, which trails Die Another Day in terms of attendance.

*sound of violin playing*

BOM only has detailed info on the post-LTK Bond films... and every single one of them other than QoS was either released the weekend before Thanksgiving (GE, TWINE, DAD, and CR) or after Thanksgiving altogether (TND).

[Publius]

And you're acting like a grumpy old who wants to dictate how things are said. I wasn't aware you are that authority here. If you don't like how I say things, knacker off and go read something else.

I didn't dictate anything, just trying to do you a friendly favor on call you out on your unnecessarily incendiary posts. Take it easy.

[Qwerty]

Yes, let's please calm down in here. After all, it's only money and none of us are the ones actually receiving it.

[Kristian]

And you're acting like a grumpy old who wants to dictate how things are said. I wasn't aware you are that authority here. If you don't like how I say things, knacker off and go read something else.

I didn't dictate anything, just trying to do you a friendly favor on call you out on your unnecessarily incendiary posts. Take it easy.

OH, YEAH!!!! I LOVES ME A CATFIGHT!!!!

Welcome, DogBond. I don't agree with you, but it's nice to see another bitch on the site. Maybe this will take the heat off me...

Anyhow, as I said before, I just want QOS to make $170-175 million (US) and $600-610 million (INTERNATIONAL). Some forward progress instead of a backslide.

Edited by Kristian, 08 December 2008 - 05:53 AM.

[blueman]

Weird that $151m in 4 weeks isn't thought of as good BO for a Bond film, but oh well.

Depends on how you look at it. It made 44% of that amount in the first 3 days alone...

You say that like it's a bad thing.

What were CR's, DAD's, TWINE's, etc. like? I think I remember CR's not being as front-loaded, but if the final numbers are similar wouldn't that imply the same number of people saw both films, just more went to see QOS earlier? Are there potential Bond fans EON isn't reaching with QOS, or did CR ferret them all out and then they all lined up first weekend to see QOS?

[HildebrandRarity]

Show me data to support your inflation-adjusted claim of $182 mil. Where is this number coming from?

They're probably using the Box Office Mojo estimate for the year's average ticket price. BOM in turn gets their finalized yearly average from the MPAA. Currently they estimate $7.08 for 2008. For comparison, they list $6.55 as the 2006 average, but I recall their early estimate being a few cents higher than that.

The world's inflation bond markets (known as either Inflation Linkers or Real Return Bonds or TIPs) have collapsed in the last 4.5 months.

There is a discounting phenomenon occuring everywhere. On virtually every retail plane, from cars to higher end booze to clothing.

My link shows periods of US movie ticket price DECLINES during recessions like 1989, 1992, 1993.

So even though there is an estimate there on BOM, it is only an ESTIMATE.

There is also a very good chance that movie ticket prices have also declined during the past 4.5 months.

I'd love to see the data which shows the average ticket price when Iron-Man, Indy 4 and The Dark Knight came out and now. Currencies have fallen hard since then as well which means those movies International grosses are higher in US Dollars than they would be if they were released a month or two ago.

And, yes, Dog Bond, I know that currency and dollar movements have little to do with the sharp momentum loss of Q0S in the US/Canada...but the run has not finished yet. Q0S has been out just under a month and most Bond films remain out there for up to three months before they get pulled.

Let's pretend the movie gets pulled at the end of January, i.e. two-and-a-half months after release...That still means it can get to $175 - 180 million, which I think would be quite good given the job losses being experienced in America the last month.*

*US Non-farm Payrolls declined a massive 535,000 in November. That's the biggest job loss number in a given month in nearly 2 decades...which coincides with the link showing a period of declining movie ticket prices.

PS

Dog Bond, FYI:

UK Box Office to November 30, 08...QOS = 47.7 Million Pounds Stirling.

That number is after 1 month.

CR was 55.3 Million Pounds TOTAL run at 1.9812 exchange rate = US $109 M.

At current exchange rate of 1.4875, 55.3 Mil Pounds = US $82 M.

[HildebrandRarity]

In Germany, they report numbers more precisely by citing admissions.

What are German numbers for QoS vs more recent Bonds?

[Elvenstar]

Hmm I thought there are a lot of places of Qos bashing. I hope this isn't going to turn to another one...

[Harmsway]

Good post, GS.

[HildebrandRarity]

Quantum of Solace collapsed 65 percent in its fourth weekend to an estimated $6.6 million, grossing less than predecessor Casino Royale on that timeframe. It was the biggest post-Thanksgiving fall ever for a James Bond movie. The tally grew to $151.5 million in 24 days, which trails Die Another Day in terms of attendance.

*sound of violin playing*

Are the violins playing for Bolt, Madagascar 2 and Transporter 3 too...all of which ALSO declined about 63 to 66 percent this past weekend?



What does that say about anything, if at all?

[Jim]

Quantum of Solace collapsed 65 percent in its fourth weekend to an estimated $6.6 million, grossing less than predecessor Casino Royale on that timeframe. It was the biggest post-Thanksgiving fall ever for a James Bond movie. The tally grew to $151.5 million in 24 days, which trails Die Another Day in terms of attendance.

*sound of violin playing*

Are the violins playing for Bolt, Madagascar 2 and Transporter 3 too...all of which ALSO declined about 63 to 66 percent this past weekend?



What does that say about anything, if at all?

If at all.

I dunno, but doubtless someone's about to tell us.

Who put the anal in analyst?

[stromberg]

In Germany, they report numbers more precisely by citing admissions.

What are German numbers for QoS vs more recent Bonds?

Ths table might be of help:
http://www.insidekin...m/Y/DuellJB.htm
Compares BO day-by-day (admissions, not money) from GE to QoS. No need to understand German, the figures speak for themselves.

QoS certainly won't have the legs CR had, but on has to note that CR's legs were incredibly long. I've seen it running for more than 20 weeks in some places over here, and that wasn't in dollar theaters. Saw my last cinema screening of CR three weeks before the DVD was out. Besides, CR isn't the one to beat here, the benchmark is still GoldenEye.

QoS is still topping the charts over here, and it doesn't even have to struggle.


That said, can we please all calm down a little bit in this thread?

[jaguar007]

Is QoS declining a bit faster in the box office than originally expected? yes

Is QoS still a box office success? yes

It is also still the #1 action/adventure movie in the US. In QoS 4th weekend, newcomers like Transporter 3 and The Punisher have not come even close to 007.

nuff said

[Jim]

Is QoS declining a bit faster in the box office than originally expected? yes

Is QoS still a box office success? yes

It is also still the #1 action/adventure movie in the US. In QoS 4th weekend, newcomers like Transporter 3 and The Punisher have not come even close to 007.

nuff said

...ssssh. You'll spoil everyone's "fun".

[HildebrandRarity]

In Germany, they report numbers more precisely by citing admissions.

What are German numbers for QoS vs more recent Bonds?

Ths table might be of help:
http://www.insidekin...m/Y/DuellJB.htm
Compares BO day-by-day (admissions, not money) from GE to QoS. No need to understand German, the figures speak for themselves.

Besides, CR isn't the one to beat here, the benchmark is still GoldenEye.

QoS is still topping the charts over here, and it doesn't even have to struggle.

Thanks, Stromberg.

Looks like German admissions rank thus:

1GoldenEye
2Casino Royale
3TWINE
4DAD
5TND

I can't tell where Q0S will end up on that list.

[stromberg]

In Germany, they report numbers more precisely by citing admissions.

What are German numbers for QoS vs more recent Bonds?

Ths table might be of help:
http://www.insidekin...m/Y/DuellJB.htm
Compares BO day-by-day (admissions, not money) from GE to QoS. No need to understand German, the figures speak for themselves.

Besides, CR isn't the one to beat here, the benchmark is still GoldenEye.

QoS is still topping the charts over here, and it doesn't even have to struggle.

Thanks, Stromberg.

Looks like German admissions rank thus:

1GoldenEye
2Casino Royale
3TWINE
4DAD
5TND

I can't tell where Q0S will end up on that list.

My guess:
Will have beaten TND by the end of the week, no doubt.
Should be able to outgross DAD, but I don't see it as a given, yet.
Matching TWINE will be a tough struggle. 50/50.
Beating CR isn't imposssible, but not very likely.
No way it'll beat GE.

[HildebrandRarity]

Thanks, Stromberg.

Looks like German admissions rank thus:

1GoldenEye
2Casino Royale
3TWINE
4DAD
5TND

I can't tell where Q0S will end up on that list.

My guess:
Will have beaten TND by the end of the week, no doubt.
Should be able to outgross DAD, but I don't see it as a given, yet.
Matching TWINE will be a tough struggle. 50/50.
Beating CR isn't imposssible, but not very likely.
No way it'll beat GE.

Thanks again Stromberg...any idea about German admissions going back all the way to Dr No?

[stromberg]

Thanks again Stromberg...any idea about German admissions going back all the way to Dr No?

Exact figures exist only since the early 1980s, for the Bond movies before that, the numbers can be very different, depending on what source you have/believe/quote. Some say that TB had 8 Million, others say 12...

Starting 1981 with FYEO, the numbers are:

CR - 5,634,849
DAD - 4,940,201
TWINE - 5,070,892
TND - 4,467,892
GE - 5,497,597
LTK - 2,427,732
TLD - 3,106,367
AVTAK - 3,373,064
OP - 4,324,692
FYEO - 4,820,641

These are final numbers, the ones on the site I linked to are only until 10th week.
Also, the numbers until LTK are West Germany and West Berlin only.

[HildebrandRarity]

Starting 1981 with FYEO, the numbers are:

CR - 5,634,849
DAD - 4,940,201
TWINE - 5,070,892
TND - 4,467,892
GE - 5,497,597
LTK - 2,427,732
TLD - 3,106,367
AVTAK - 3,373,064
OP - 4,324,692
FYEO - 4,820,641

These are final numbers, the ones on the site I linked to are only until 10th week.
Also, the numbers until LTK are West Germany and West Berlin only.

Thanks again...These numbers are very helpfull and indicate that Bond was in decline all through the 1980s...and not only in the US. The numbers, however, contradict the other ones because it says CR has more admissions than GoldenEye. Perhaps there is a typo with the GoldenEye number here?