1228 replies to this topic

[kneelbeforezod]

Although the film might retains its #4 spot or be at #5, that QoS box-office is terrible. AWFUL. Down almost another 60% from last week.

This stupid Bond film is now on life-support and might not even crawl pass what Casino Royale earned. That's what you get when you follow up a great Bond film with a load of crap.

"Awful"! "Terrible"! "load of crap"!

Aren't you getting a little carried away? The problem with using language like that is if the box office or the quality of the film was worse, you'd have nowhere else to go. What if the film's final gross was 20 million? What would you say then? "BLOOOODDY AWFULLL TERRIBLEE!!!!!!111111111 AAARRRGGHHHHH!!".

Is the series' future in jeopardy? No. Is Daniel Craig's future in jeopardy? No.

The funny thing is a lot of what you say is fair: the word of mouth isn't quite as good. A better film might have earned an extra hundred million maybe... but still, you need to get a little perspective.

[YOLT]

Ms. Dog Bond,

Do want a bet with me ? I say if QOS makes under 167m$ in US and under 600m$ Worldwide I am going to pay you 1.000 US Dollars? If the reverse is true will you pay the same amount to me

[YOLT]

Nope, because with the Christmas holidays it is still possible to eke out $170m in the USA by New Year, assuming theater counts still hold considerably and QoS isn't dropped 500 screens at a time each week from now on. But that is still way below what many hoped would have been the first $200m Bond movie.

Well years have showed if its Bond than international numbers are more important. In 10 years time China+India may equal to the US numbers of 007 films.

200m$ seems impossible but I can see it passing 180m$. Even 190m$.

Nope, because with the Christmas holidays it is still possible to eke out $170m in the USA by New Year, assuming theater counts still hold considerably and QoS isn't dropped 500 screens at a time each week from now on. But that is still way below what many hoped would have been the first $200m Bond movie.

Well years have showed if its Bond than international numbers are more important. In 10 years time China+India may equal to the US numbers of 007 films.

200m$ seems impossible but I can see it passing 180m$. Even 190m$.

Also to note, if you are looking for inflation adjusted grosses, than TB, GF and maybe YOLT have grossed more than 200m$.

[1q2w3e4r]

Box Office Mojo posted Friday's box office gross as $2.15m.

That is 73.4% down from last Friday's take of $8.2m.

Here's a visual

http://www.boxoffice...jamesbond22.htm

Someone please explain to me how this disaster is going to swing around and crawl up to $180m in the USA. Rarity, how does the US dollar differential of 2 years ago factor in to that near 75% plummet? Please edify us with your amazing spin doctoring to somehow cushion this blow to EON's balls. Even if you raise the bogey of last Friday being a holiday, still, a drop of over 70%? Quantum of Solace is fast approaching clinically dead.

Yawn. You sound like a broken record.

You didn't enjoy the film, that's a shame.

[CM007]

Ha Ha Ha Ha QOS is a Bomb....ha ha ha poor Danny boy....how could this be.....he was the second comng of Bond......ha ha ha ha......the Public have spoken....Ye think this is bad wait until Bond 23 when that sinks as fast as the Titanic........esp under MGM.....OH dear God.Poor Danny Boy..........watch this fella Jump Ship as fast as you can say..............?ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
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Edited by CM007, 06 December 2008 - 11:04 PM.

[MrKidd]

Hi - first time poster.
Dog Bond - you're going slightly OTT with your venomous slating of the BO. I agree that it is having a slightly disappointing North American run after its monumental weekend but its still $25mm ahead of where CR was at this point and tracking very similarly on a weekend to weekend basis, even on the weekend after Thanksgiving which is one of the worst BO days of the year. So - it WILL beat CR but it probably won't do $200mm. So - its definately a big hit and the International numbers are also ahead of CRs. Unfortunately, your argument is just wrong. I understand that you didn't like the film - I'm not a massive fan of it either, but I think your disappointment is clouding your judgment..

[Matt_13]

Hi - first time poster.
Dog Bond - you're going slightly OTT with your venomous slating of the BO. I agree that it is having a slightly disappointing North American run after its monumental weekend but its still $25mm ahead of where CR was at this point and tracking very similarly on a weekend to weekend basis, even on the weekend after Thanksgiving which is one of the worst BO days of the year. So - it WILL beat CR but it probably won't do $200mm. So - its definately a big hit and the International numbers are also ahead of CRs. Unfortunately, your argument is just wrong. I understand that you didn't like the film - I'm not a massive fan of it either, but I think your disappointment is clouding your judgment..

Welcome to CBn MrKidd And totally agreed.

[MrKidd]

How nice to be welcomed! Thank you Matt_13!

[DamnCoffee]

Welcome to CBn.

[MrKidd]

and again..

Sorry Dog Bond - that last post was to MMarkin. In reply to yours...ah, but CRs post TG weekend was only its 3rd weekend - its QoS 4th..and drop offs of 50% + are standard on a week by week basis. Look, ultimately, neither of us know the exact number - all I can tell you is that being the BO geek/nerd that I am - QoS numbers are surprisingly good. I say surprising as I didn't think it would do as well as it has been doing, either here or overseas..

[Bradley De La Cloche]

Ha Ha Ha Ha QOS is a Bomb....ha ha ha poor Danny boy....how could this be.....he was the second comng of Bond......ha ha ha ha......the Public have spoken....Ye think this is bad wait until Bond 23 when that sinks as fast as the Titanic........esp under MGM.....OH dear God.Poor Danny Boy..........watch this fella Jump Ship as fast as you can say..............?ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
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Do us a favour and bugger off back to CnB. There's a good chap.

[MrKidd]

But you're now not comparing like with like - because last week was TG weekend! You really are spinning the numbers in the wrong direction..for instance, did you know that Fridays numbers were actually up 164% from Thursdays compared to CRs on that same week which was only up 157%? If you didn't it doesn't matter as its meaningless - the only point that means anything is that its $25mm ahead of CR and making the same kind of money on its 4th weekend as CR - therefore the probability is that it will quite easily beat CRs BO. Its not rocket science. BUT - if you still want to argue - can we make a date for this time in 2 weeks? Seems like you won't be convinced with what I say anyway..

Edited by MrKidd, 07 December 2008 - 12:51 AM.

[mario007]

http://www.boxoffice...ondbournevs.htm

QOS is tracking closest to DAD at this point. DAD earned approx. 34 million from this point on to the end of its run (approx. 160-126). So QOS should end up around 181 million by the end of its run. Which I think is a very respectable number. what do you guys think? If bond 23 is a little bit more traditional (as Micky and Babs have hinted) it will easily break $200 million in the US when it is released.

Edited by mario007, 07 December 2008 - 02:03 AM.

[HildebrandRarity]

Nope, because with the Christmas holidays it is still possible to eke out $170m in the USA by New Year... But that is still way below what many hoped would have been the first $200m Bond movie.

What kind of pot are you smoking?

Where did the experts and the quantitatively oriented fans like me say this would be the first $200 mil Bond in the US.

Show me proof of your claim.

[HildebrandRarity]

Rarity, how does the US dollar differential of 2 years ago factor in to that near 75% plummet? Please edify us with your amazing spin doctoring to somehow cushion this blow to EON's balls.

Don't show your ignorance, my dear girl.

In post after post I compared international grosses (of CR v Q0S) to currency fluctuations.

Show me one post of mine in the last two months in which I talked about the US Dollar fluctuations affecting anything other than International grosses.

In fact I started a thread a day or two before the Odeon London premiere in which I higlighted the decline of the pound and told CBn members that Q0S would make LESS than CR in the UK in US Dollar terms.

Here: http://debrief.comma...showtopic=50575

Who in their right mind would use dollar fluctuations to justify US grosses or lack there of.

You're being intellectually deceitful, and therefore, a bit silly.

The path of CR and Q0S are not similar in that CR was released the weekend before TG whereas QOS was released two weekends before TG. Another HUGE differential is that Q0S totally CRUSHED CR's opening weekend numbers. Does that mean Q0S was WAY better just because it's box office was 70 mil vs CR's paltry 40 mil where it was beaten by Happy Feet? Of course not. It meant that the drop offs would be bigger for Q0S because it's opening was UNEXPECTEDLY HIGH BY ALL ACCOUNTS.

I know you like to around with the numbers and that you like to wind others on here up...but it simply won't work.

You'll be wrong when all the numbers are compiled by the middle of January.

But you won't be around to admit you were wrong. Losers rarely trumpet their losses.

[blueman]

Oh, I've seen projections of $200, $210 mil, but whatevs. I have a hard time seeing QOS's BO - in the US and worldwide - as anything but a raging success, wishful thinking or no. To glance at the other end of the spectrum: Craig was the guy who was gonna sink the franchise... just stop it dead in the water. And QOS was definitely gonna do that cuz it came with no curiosity factor like CR did (that movie sucked cuz of Craig, you know...).

I'm sure EON is thinking, half a billion (give or take) ain't too shabby.

[1q2w3e4r]

Yawn. You sound like a broken record.

You didn't enjoy the film, that's a shame.

And you have to be a joke if that's the best you can respond.

This is a thread about box-office, and the box-office isn't good. It's not my fault if some of the self-appointed "believers" don't like to hear the bad news and would rather wear their rose-coloured glasses hoping for a miracle. That's it one and all, get out your tamborines and start chanting "we shall overcome."

Here's the news. The theater drops started yesterday. Add a couple hundred more next week, then several hundred more the next.

Here's hoping Bond 23 doesn't suck as horribly as this one.

Perhaps then you should follow your own rhetoric? Stop posting your opinion that the film "sucked" and simply stick to box office numbers.

Fact is the box office is good, Sony, MGM, EON have all come out and said how thrilled they are with how its performing. It's not a "flop" and its making a stack of money.

Post genuine benchmarks that the box office "isn't good" not just your opinion that it isn't. The US market for Bond is such a small part that ultimately its the worldwide grosses that matter and how the films are benchmarked.

The final box office numbers don't concern me in the slightest, the film has proved successful enough than 23 will go ahead and continue down the path that CR and QOS have setup. All in all, great news as far as I'm concerned even if QOS doesn't make another dime.

[HildebrandRarity]

Nope, because with the Christmas holidays it is still possible to eke out $170m in the USA by New Year... But that is still way below what many hoped would have been the first $200m Bond movie.

What kind of pot are you smoking?

Where did the experts and the quantitatively oriented fans like me <snip>

Is it always about you? Since when are you an expert and a quantitatively oriented fan? And who cares if you are? It doesn't change the facts which have been presented.

What facts? The fact that says the box office "sucks"?

BTW, I am an expert in my field which is finance and global capital markets.

Also, look at what I wrote in the other thread BEFORE the London premiere:

As for the studio, I would imagine that it has hedged against the currency fluctuations, given the size of the stakes.

Hopefully they did.

Australian Dollar is also down 21 pecent. Canadian Dollar down 13 percent. [Of the $167 million US Domestic, Canada was ~ $23.5 million of Casino Royale.] Commonwealth currencies are down. Same with Latin American curriencies...and it only has happened just within the last couple of months.

EUR is down 7 percent and expected to go lower into year end.

So, if Quantum sells just as many tickets as CR, then expect the box office numbers in US Dollar terms to be lower from these jurisdictions.

I wouldn't go Banco on US $600 million yet.

If there is to be a bail out, then only ticket price inflation and higher ticket sales will do the trick.

[HildebrandRarity]

BTW, I am an expert in my field which is finance and global capital markets.

I'm not sure why this was relevant. Many experts with those credentials were reduced to sitting on their potties when their stock markets took nosedives several weeks ago.

Yes. But i'm one of the few who actually made money for my firm. I was one of the first to predict inter-meeting rate cuts by the Fed back in January and positioned my books in xxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxxxx and xxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxxx. (Edited)

I'm still standing while many others got wiped out and then fired.

It's nothing to be gleeful about. It's a sad state of affairs.

But I was the first on this forum (under the screen name 'ray t') to say DAD would go north of $425 million and I was one of the first to say CR would do $550 mil when all the Craig haters said it would tank and do only $250 mil world-wide.

I can dig up the posts from '02 and '06 if you like.

[HildebrandRarity]

Your essay on international currency differentials left out the USA. Adjust Casino Royale's take to inflation and its $167m gross becomes about $181m.

Is QoS threatening that? Even with increased ticket prices? Let's face it...it's a struggle to get there.

I left out the USA out of currency differentials mainly because it is it's own reporting currency.

Simple, isn't it?

And it's true that the momentum is waning but there are a fair amount of holidays coming up withing the month by the end of which Quantum will only have been out just a month and a half.

I think you should wait for the end of the run. CR's word of mouth *was* better. I'm not arguing that. So inflation adjusted I see Q0S just about 1 or 2 percent under CR.

BTW, usually we have inflation, right? Well, the world is 'deflating' currently.

In other words, "deflation" is replacing the term "inflation"...so i'm not sure if ticket prices are up in the US so significantly. We're (the USA) in the midst of a harsh recession which 'officially' started in December 2007.

And like you I predicted much better than $250m. I was surprised by the final result though...I thought somewhere around $400m would be great.

But don't you see, my dear, that the weak(er) US Dollar masked CR's non-US grosses to the upside...just like the stronger dollar is masking QOS's international (or non-US) grosses to the downside.

In my old CR predictions, I even cited the weakened US dollar as a positive factor for Casino's box office internationally.

PS

With respect to US ticket prices. I'd actually like to see the correct average ticket price for the US over the past month.

I mentioned 'deflation'. There are sales everywhere. Pre Christmas sales. This is unusual. Everyone is slashing their prices at the retail level because the average consumer is hurting.

Only Rolls Royce and Ferrari have numbers that are "up" in the automotive world. (Even then, we actually need to see the Ferrari order book to see what the speculative element is that is keeping their prices and sales - usually out to three years full - up.)

So, there's every reason to *think* that movie ticket prices are down from earlier in the year. I don't know if they *are* down, but it's a feeling I have that they *might* be down.

http://www.natoonlin...ticstickets.htm

The above shows historical ticket prices.

Note the last horrible recession...1988 to 1989, ticket prices went DOWN...and then in the early-mid 90s, ticket prices went DOWN every year from 1991 to 1994.

So, as you can see, ticket prices don't go UP only.

We're in the middle of an economic melt down right now, so it wouldn't surprise me if there is no ticket price "inflation" this year. It could be deflation.

And the only way to tell is to have real data instead of assumptions.

Hope that link helps.

[kneelbeforezod]

Ha Ha Ha Ha QOS is a Bomb....ha ha ha poor Danny boy....how could this be.....he was the second comng of Bond......ha ha ha ha......the Public have spoken....Ye think this is bad wait until Bond 23 when that sinks as fast as the Titanic........esp under MGM.....OH dear God.Poor Danny Boy..........watch this fella Jump Ship as fast as you can say..............?ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
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This guy is without a doubt the single worst member on this forum. Like the worst kind of 12 year old. Surely a post like that earns him a ban? Absolutely pathetic, can't believe his crap is tolerated.

[YOLT]

I wont be around for 4 or 5 days so my quick estimated are:

US:
152-153 (7 Dec)
161-162 (14 Dec)
166-167 (21 Dec)

Int:
362-363 (7 Dec)
378-379 (14 Dec)
389-390 (21 Dec)

Maybe a last twist in Noel may make the numbers up.

[blueman]

I'm just looking at the dwindling take and I'm not expecting anything much higher than $550m.

How is that sucking, or a failure? Or negative in any way? Sure $650m would be better, but over half a billion worldwide - in a worldwide economic depression - can only be counted as a success (again, regardless of higher predictions).

Seems you're downgrading QOS's BO success cuz??? Not really sure. Yes it's not the big critic-pleaser CR was, but it's still (adjusting for inflation/deflation) beating CR at the BO. HR's point is a fair one IMO, as CR's "adjusted" take of $181m still has some inflatedness to it. And for the sequel to a film like CR to be even near it at the BO is pretty darn amazing IMO.

Getting bored with all the "I love QOS but the public doesn't" takes when BO is still coming in on what is obviously a big big hit (the surge in the 3rd weekend speaks to a great deal of positive WOM here in the states IMO). I can see the front-loadedness, but that still doesn't detract from overall BO success IMO (record-breaking openings don't suck, lol).

[Bradley De La Cloche]

This guy is without a doubt the single worst member on this forum. Like the worst kind of 12 year old. Surely a post like that earns him a ban? Absolutely pathetic, can't believe his crap is tolerated.

I agree. Somebody needs to ban this guy NOW.

[HildebrandRarity]

Yes it's not the big critic-pleaser CR was, but it's still (adjusting for inflation/deflation) beating CR at the BO. HR's point is a fair one IMO, as CR's "adjusted" take of $181m still has some inflatedness to it.

Well, I like Dog Bond's enthusiasm and I think she is more than capable of being objective (unlike say the poster on this page who some want banned for childish behaviour), however, that $181 million "adjusted" number that Dog Bond gives out...where is it coming from?

In the link I provide in my previous post they only have 1950s to 2007 ticket prices and if we "adjusted" CR to 2007, that would be equivalent to $175.4 million.

But as I said the fact is that the US has "officially" been in a recession for an entire year. Further, that link shows that in recessions, ticket prices actually go down.

You only need to look at the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) to note that retail/consumer pricers are indeed going down from last year. I.e., the US is experiencing deflation, not inflation. [As an example, look at the price of world oil...it got as high as $147 per barrel in July and Friday it was trading at around $42 dollars a barrel. That's DEFLATION. If you drive a car, you'll understand what i'm talking about because pump fuel prices are down significantly in the last few months.]

Anyway, I think Dog Bond *might* be a little optimistic on that $181 million number she is using for her "adjusted for inflation" number.

I think she needs to show us real data and something comparable to the link I provided.

Can you do that Dog?

[CM007]

Ha Ha Ha Ha QOS is a Bomb....ha ha ha poor Danny boy....how could this be.....he was the second comng of Bond......ha ha ha ha......the Public have spoken....Ye think this is bad wait until Bond 23 when that sinks as fast as the Titanic........esp under MGM.....OH dear God.Poor Danny Boy..........watch this fella Jump Ship as fast as you can say..............?ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
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Do us a favour and bugger off back to CnB. There's a good chap.

Not a memeber there...where ever that is

[Publius]

The movie has failed in the sense that it is now struggling to beat its predecessor.

Well, TMWTGG did over 40% worse than LALD. LTK did over 20% worse than TLD. And TND did $20 million worse than GE. Drop-offs for Bond actors in their sophomore outings is par for the course.

(And personally, in at least two of those cases I think the sophomore outing was better than the debut.)

But Dog Bond has no interest in being objective. No interest in being logical. No interest in looking at the currency rate differentials between Dec 2006 and Dec 2008 to account for both Bond film's international grosses.

Indeed, QoS might have even stood a chance to take the #1 spot for non-US box office in 2008, but the difference is vast between what exchange rates are now and what they were when Indy 4 and TDK were doing most of their business.

Nope, because with the Christmas holidays it is still possible to eke out $170m in the USA by New Year, assuming theater counts still hold considerably and QoS isn't dropped 500 screens at a time each week from now on. But that is still way below what many hoped would have been the first $200m Bond movie.

$200 million was always a primarily psychological/marketing goal. And only three Bond films (GF, TB, and YOLT) even adjust to that. QoS will likely beat the adjusted grosses of GE and TWINE (about $170-175 million), and probably CR. That's no failure, even if it isn't a raging phenomenon. You know, there is a middle ground where "modest success" exists.

Ha Ha Ha Ha QOS is a Bomb....

And yet it's still doing better than any Brosnan Bond flick. Ouch.

Sorry Dog Bond - that last post was to MMarkin. In reply to yours...ah, but CRs post TG weekend was only its 3rd weekend - its QoS 4th..and drop offs of 50% + are standard on a week by week basis. Look, ultimately, neither of us know the exact number - all I can tell you is that being the BO geek/nerd that I am - QoS numbers are surprisingly good. I say surprising as I didn't think it would do as well as it has been doing, either here or overseas..

Thank you. Week to week comparisons (especially in percentage terms) don't work given that (1) QoS was released two weeks before Thanksgiving, while CR and DAD were released just one before, and (2) QoS was bound to be more front-loaded than the slow-starting CR. We can't forget that CR behaved highly unusually for a major blockbuster, opening relatively weakly but having a remarkable multiplier of over 4x, when the norm is about 3x.

Yes, I'm disappointed with how QoS has fared at the box office, but that's because I thought it would (and still think it deserves) to do extraordinary... yet it's "just" doing fairly well. Word-of-mouth is weaker than it was for CR (although again, CR was the outlier and QoS is performing normally), but it's still good, and certainly better than it was for Brosnan's last three Bond movies.

QoS WILL prove profitable, Bond 23 WILL be greenlit (with a considerable budget), and the producers WILL continue to have total creative control over the franchise.

[kneelbeforezod]

Yes, I'm disappointed with how QoS has fared at the box office, but that's because I thought it would (and still think it deserves) to do extraordinary... yet it's "just" doing fairly well. Word-of-mouth is weaker than it was for CR (although again, CR was the outlier and QoS is performing normally), but it's still good, and certainly better than it was for Brosnan's last three Bond movies.

QoS WILL prove profitable, Bond 23 WILL be greenlit (with a considerable budget), and the producers WILL continue to have total creative control over the franchise.

Perfectly summed up.

I was always hoping for a bit of a phenomenon with QOS, and I really thought 200 million was a possibility. The way that Batman Begins was so universally loved once everyone had seen it on dvd really fed into the success of The Dark Knight... and perhaps QOS's opening weekend was evidence of something similar. But even though QOS is jam-packed with stuff I like, overall I don't think it's a great film, and more importantly,it isn't a crowd pleaser really, which I think explains the good rather than great box office.

But the producers are still firmly on the right track: a Bond with fantastic charisma, real stunts, serious tone, hiring quality writers and directors with a serious vision (even if it sometimes doesn't quite come together)... things are looking great for Bond 23.

[Kristian]

At this point, I just want QOS to beat CR's gross of $168 million.

Just give me $170 million. That's all I ask at this point.

See below:

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

[Invincible1958]

At this point, I just want QOS to beat CR's gross of $168 million.

Just give me $170 million. That's all I ask at this point.

See below:

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

But even with $170 million CR is not beaten.
Adjusted for inflation CR made about $182 million in the US. To compare the success you have to take the $182 million-figure.