1228 replies to this topic

[Tarl_Cabot]

It's a formula(I don't know the math) that's been pretty accurate over the years. Maybe it'll be off by 500K, give or take.

[Kristian]

How can they estimate this at 12:00pm on Sunday?

There are ways of determining ticket pre-sales and audience turnout for upcoming shows. Truth is, once the dust settles, that total could go up or down (most likely down).

[Tarl_Cabot]

$70M is pretty much a lock for the producers to get cracking on the next one for a 2010 release. Great news this is.

[sark]

How can they estimate this at 12:00pm on Sunday?

There are ways of determining ticket pre-sales and audience turnout for upcoming shows. Truth is, once the dust settles, that total could go up or down (most likely down).

It'll be interesting to see exactly how far off it is.

[Kristian]

How can they estimate this at 12:00pm on Sunday?

There are ways of determining ticket pre-sales and audience turnout for upcoming shows. Truth is, once the dust settles, that total could go up or down (most likely down).

It'll be interesting to see exactly how far off it is.

Exactly. Only very rarely does that estimate go up. I hope it doesn't drop too much. I want QOS to make more than THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM. I hope it has legs to make it to $200 million. I think it will, but that drop in attendance between Friday and Saturday is a bit worrying. It usually indicates some negative word of mouth going around (if past examples are anything to go by).

[Bonita]

I know only a little about the Box Office formula, so others more informed may be better at this.

First, the Friday numbers are boosted by the $2 mil the film supposedly did at midnight screenings on Thurs. Second, the real issue now is how fast the film drops next weekend and how much it makes over Turkey Day in the States. Casino did about $45 million over the Thanksgiving holiday period (just over its opening weekend).

So the question is - outside of our narrow world of Bond fans - will this movie get repeat viewings? Will it pull in people who don't go opening weekend? Casino was a film that many, many folks told me they hoped to see because they had heard such good things about it. I, for example, never saw any of the 80s or 90s Batman movies in the cinema after the first one. But I was there for The Dark Knight after seeing Batman Begins on DVD. I knew teens who saw Casino over and over. Will they go back for QoS?

Casino does $167M in the US.

Here are two Quantum scenarios:

1st weekend: $70M
2nd: $30M
Thankgiving: $20M
4th: $5M

That scenario is all-too-realistic and could condemn the film to a below Casino box office.

OR:
1st: $70M
2nd: $45M
Thanksgiving: $45M
4th: 15M

Here you are looking at a major hit, possible over $250M total.

The big tipping point is next weekend against Twilight.

Keep dancing...

[Wade]

HERE IT IS!

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – The latest James Bond film "Quantum of Solace," already a big hit overseas, set a new opening record for Bond movies in North America with estimated weekend sales of $70.4 million, distributor Columbia Pictures said on Sunday.

The record for a Bond opening was held by "Die Another Day," which earned $47.1 million across the United States and Canada during its first weekend in November 2002. That film was the last one starring Pierce Brosnan. "Quantum of Solace" and its 2006 predecessor "Casino Royale," which opened to $40.8 million, starred Daniel Craig.

Swiss-German filmmaker Marc Forster directed "Quantum of Solace," in which Bond travels the world battling a villain (French actor Mathieu Amalric) looking to control natural resources. Along the way, the vengeful hero earns the enmity of the British and U.S. spy agencies.

Industry pundits had forecast an opening in the $60 million range for "Quantum of Solace," even though top critics had largely panned the movie.

The film began its international showing two weeks ago, and has earned $251.6 million in 73 countries. A handful of major markets awaits the film, including Japan, Australia and Spain.

"It's totally extraordinary," Columbia Pictures distribution president Rory Bruer said of the film's early box office success. "Everybody is really loving the movie."

The film is billed as a 50/50 partnership with closely held Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc. Columbia, a unit of Sony Corp, oversaw production, marketing and distribution and funded most of the $200 million production budget. MGM has ancillary rights, such as DVD distribution.

[lafemmefantome]

Maybe the teenage boys will flock to Bond and the girls to Twilight? Who knows? But you're right. Next weekend will be interesting but Thanksgiving as well. Either way I'm pleased to see it's got off to a great start.

lafemme

[zencat]

This is a HUGE opening for a Bond film in the U.S. Amazing.

[Joe Bond]

MGM has ancillary rights, such as DVD distribution.

So does this mean the 20th Century Fox will be releasing the DVD, since MGM uses them to distribute their DVD's, and not Sony. This could be good news since there would be a better chance of a DTS track since the last big movie they distributed on DVD was Flyboy's which had a DTS track along with commentary track with some bonus features on a second disc but they may try and put a digital copy of the film on the bonus disc which may take up more space on a second disc.

I am glad QoS is doing so well and I think teenagers will go back since my brother, who is still in High School, and apparently on Friday some kids at his school saw the midnight screenings and a lot liked it so they told their friends and there was a buzz at the school that QoS was a really good movie and some said it was better than TDK at least thats what he told me and he saw QoS Friday and Saturday night so I feel since QoS has good replay value that there is really nothing for teenagers to see in the coming months and the fast action apeals to teenagers a lot. I have already scene it twice and I am planning to go again during Thanksgiving since my college is closed during the whole week of Thanksgiving and I might go again sometime in January when it goes to second run theatres.

[JackWade]

Didn't THE DARK KNIGHT make more during its opening weekend than the Sunday morning estimate?

[deth]

what's with people saying this should get the next film out by 2010?? Wilson already said it would likely be 2011...

[tdalton]

Great news. As others have said, it's great to see Bond getting back to blockbuster status in the U.S. It's also great to see that the new, more serious approach has been successful so far.

[Kristian]

IMDB.COM has listed the weekend boxoffice results. QUANTUM OF SOLACE is at #1 with $70.4 million. Mind you, we won't get the final tally until Monday or Tuesday...

http://www.imdb.com/chart/

[Professor Dent]

Excellent news!

MGM has ancillary rights, such as DVD distribution.

So does this mean the 20th Century Fox will be releasing the DVD, since MGM uses them to distribute their DVD's, and not Sony. This could be good news since there would be a better chance of a DTS track since the last big movie they distributed on DVD was Flyboy's which had a DTS track along with commentary track with some bonus features on a second disc but they may try and put a digital copy of the film on the bonus disc which may take up more space on a second disc.

Casino Royale seems to be the only exception to Fox distribution & no DTS track. Doesn't seem to hurt the audio on the Blu-ray, though. The PCM audio on the original release & the Dolby TrueHD on the Collector's Edition both sound pretty sweet.

[SecretAgent007]

I would think that it should do well over Thanksgiving weekend. A lot of college students will be home for the holiday and probably didn't go to see the film while as school. If memory serves, TND had a great second weekend which was over the Thanksgiving holiday. Even with it being the 3rd weekend for QoS it may pick up over this coming weekends totals or stay about the same.

[bondrules]

$400 MM (WW) before Thanksgiving.

[bondrules]

With a worldwide haul of $322m, the film is fast approaching the $594 million tally of Casino Royale.

Make that 475MM (WW) before thanksgiving.

[K1Bond007]

This is a HUGE opening for a Bond film in the U.S. Amazing.

So huge it actually jumped over Licence to Kill's entire run at the box office in a single weekend... even counting inflation.

Worldwide it's already surpassed '67 Casino Royale and A View to a Kill. That includes inflation too.

[kneelbeforezod]

I really hope this film has legs. I think this opening weekend haul is in many ways a sign of just how much people loved CR and Craig. I hope word of mouth doesn't lead to a big drop-off, as the film is not quite the crowd pleaser that CR was.

[bondrules]

This movie is going to go over 500MM (WW) before the month is over.

[dinovelvet]

So huge it actually jumped over Licence to Kill's entire run at the box office in a single weekend... even counting inflation. .

So I guess there IS a market for Bond going rogue in South America on a mission of vengeance?

[Kristian]

I really hope this film has legs. I think this opening weekend haul is in many ways a sign of just how much people loved CR and Craig. I hope word of mouth doesn't lead to a big drop-off, as the film is not quite the crowd pleaser that CR was.

Agreed. Let's try to do some math here:


Weekend
1 - $70.4 million
2 - $35.8
3 - $40.5
4 - $25.5

4-WEEK TOTAL: $172.2

I think there will be a about a 50% drop next week, and then an increase the following week because of Thanksgiving, and then a 30% drop for week 4. That should bring the total take for the first month to about $172.2. Add in the weekday takings, and that could go up to as $190 million. And that's with more weeks to go....

Either way, QOS will almost certainly break $200 million...

Edited by Kristian, 16 November 2008 - 11:00 PM.

[bondrules]

Box Office: Quantum of Solace is Biggest Bond Ever with $70.4M Opening & $700M Worldwide Possible!

Posted on Sunday, November 16th, 2008 at 2:36 pm by: Steve Mason

The audacious reboot of the James Bond franchise paid off big with 2006’s Casino Royale, and now Quantum of Solace (Sony) has hit the box office jackpot. Whereas Daniel Craig’s 007 debut opened with $40.8M, the new Bond, which picks up where Royale left off, has opened almost $30M higher with $70.4M in the US. That is a 72% increase. In fact, Quantum of Solace has opened about 50% better than the previous biggest Bond opening, Pierce Brosnan in Die Another Day in 2002, which started with $47.1M.

Sources are telling me that weekend audiences in the US for Quantum were 54% male and 46% female, and the franchise skewed a bit old with 58% of ticket-buyers over 25. The word-of-mouth will be very good for this excellent film, and for my money, the Casino Royale/Quantum of Solace films are the 2 best Bond films ever. As I wrote on Thursday, these 2 movies are to the Bond franchise, what Batman Begins and The Dark Knight are to the Batman franchise.

Quantum of Solace began opening in overseas territories on October 31, and now, including its meteoric domestic opening, the film banked $322M in 73 territories, and the film has yet to open in lucrative territories like Japan, Australia and Spain. In my estimation, the newest Bond will easily be the biggest 007 ever, becoming the first movie the the franchise to top $200M domestic. $700M worldwide would seem to be a reasonable target.

Meanwhile Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) received a hippo-sized boost from its $8.1M Friday, more than doubling its haul for a $16.9M Saturday. After adding a projected $11.1M Sunday, Mad 2 will have a new 10-day cume of $118M, ranking as the all-time 4th-best 10-day total for a non-Summer animated film opening on a non-holiday. Amazingly, Madagascar 2 has a better domestic total after 10 days than this Summer’s Dreamworks Animation smash Kung Fu Panda, which checked in with $117.2M at the same point in its release cycle. There is no question now that Mad 2 will finish as the all-time biggest grossing non-Shrek movie in the history of Dreamorks Animation, and $220M-$225M domestic is possible.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Quantum of Solace (Sony) - $70.4M, $20,400 PTA, $70.4M cume
2. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $36.1M, $8,888 PTA, $118M cume
3. Role Models (Universal) - $11.7M, $4,185 PTA, $38.1M cume
4. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $5.87M, $1,836 PTA, $84.3M cume
5. Changeling (Universal) — $4.24M, $2,240 PTA, $27.6M cume
6. Zack and Miri Make a pørno (Weinstein) — $3.2M, $1,448 PTA, $26.5M cume
7. Soul Men (MGM) - $2.42M, $1,186 PTA, $9.14M cume
8. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $2.4M, $1,186 PTA, $33.6M cume
9. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $1.79M, $894 PTA, $55.4M cume
10. The Haunting of Molly Hartley (Freestyle Releasing) - $1.64M, $1,039 PTA, $12.6M cume
11. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) - $1.53M, $951 PTA, $90.8M cume
12. Eagle Eye (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.53M, $1,267 PTA, $98.8M cume

http://www.slashfilm...ldwide-possible

[Qwerty]

Now on the CBn main page...

'Quantum of Solace' Sets Bond Box Office Record With $70.4 Million Debut

Daniel Craig's second 007 film shatters records and expectations in the US

[Aces High]

Well done America,an outstanding box office.While the movie was not the best was still better that a lot of stuff done this year.
I think the box office is down to the ice cool Daniel Craig.Now sort out the politics with Sony & MGM so we can have the next 007 in 2 years please..& get rid of MK12 & put the gunbarrel at the begining pleeeese.

[007Travis]

Great job! Glad to hear this.

[bondrules]

Someone here said that QoS was to become a cult film. Cult films are more in the way of films that don't do well at the Box Office, then become popular on DVD with only a few followers.

Even if some ppl actually hated QoS, the fact is that the film is a complete financial success, and IMHO, there will be more converts after the DVD is out.

We'll leave the doors open

[sharpshooter]

This is a massive box office, and a great show of support for James Bond and Daniel Craig.

[bondrules]

There were ppl here who said QoS was gonna fail in the US, that the word-of-mouth from the old continent in addition to the (few) negative reviews by some critics was gonna harm its opening weekend; that DC was gonna get canned....lots of funny stuff