1228 replies to this topic

[blueman]

Movie-going has spiked in the past during bad times, but not this bad time, the BO is down (even with a few odd quick-and-good performers, nothing seems to be lasting out there despite strong openings all over the place). Saying audiences haven't warmed to QOS like they did to CR is projection IMO, especially as the numbers are so very close and CR had the benefit of being released in a very up year for the economy. In fact the closer the numbers get to converging only bolsters MY pet theory: the exact same people went to QOS who went to see CR, just went earlier (ie first day ). So nyah!

Agreed - but QoS hasn't won new fans the way CR did. And come on, the whole buzz of QoS from critics to my wife and my best buddy (!) is not there this time round. I hate being the one who's dissing Bond - you've got me in a corner but I stand by my pet theory too!

I think QOS's success is more measured in how Forster reshaped a franchise to create a Bond closer to the source material than anything EON has put out since OHMSS (that it seems to be at least holding its own at the BO is a nice plus, lol). Its fans are out there - in here, even - but yeah, QOS won't be bringing in the kiddies like a TSWLM-type Bond film would. EON/Forster/Craig made the Bond film they did, and for the type of film they made it's a freakin' huge success IMHO. For me that's way more than enough, as I'd rather have a well-made Fleming thriller any day over an ott EON superhero crowd-pleaser. But that's just me.

[HildebrandRarity]

I was actually talking about all time Xmas day openings - previous champ was Ali with 10mm or so..if you're interested that is...many wouldn't!!

Well let's compare apples to apples as opposed to a movie released a long time ago.

Here is a number from today's "Box Office Guru":


Top 10 vs. 2006.......172,899,000 v 175,161,532 -1.3


It says that the box office of the top 10 from this passed weekend was down 1.3 percent from the box office of the top 10 from the same weekend of 2006, the year Casino Royale was released.

The data shows the Top 10 grossed about $2.2 Million LESS than the Top 10 for the same data point in '06.

Hope that helps.

[MrKidd]

I was actually talking about all time Xmas day openings - previous champ was Ali with 10mm or so..if you're interested that is...many wouldn't!!

Well let's compare apples to apples as opposed to a movie released a long time ago.

Here is a number from today's "Box Office Guru":


Top 10 vs. 2006.......172,899,000 v 175,161,532 -1.3


It says that the box office of the top 10 from this passed weekend was down 1.3 percent from the box office of the top 10 from the same weekend of 2006, the year Casino Royale was released.

The data shows the Top 10 grossed about $2.2 Million LESS than the Top 10 for the same data point in '06.

Hope that helps.

Ok - this is HONESTLY my last word on the matter...I don't buy the argument that QoS isn't doing as well due to an overall decrease in BO generally - that argument in my opinion is a red herring and a non-starter. If the movie is good enough and/or has the audience appeal - it will do the business regardless of any other factor - and that includes recessions, no matter how bad, which as I've said before have actually been good for BO. TDK was released this year and is the second highest grossing movie in history in North America (not inflation adjusted of course), Iron Man, Indiana Jones did 300mm, even Hancok did over 200mm. In my opinion if QoS was a better movie it would have hit the 200mm mark. So, in summary, QoS is a hit - a big one - in line with all the successful Bonds to date..BUT it coulda/shoulda/woulda done better if it was a better film and the non-fan base movie goers gave it better word of mouth.

The End, Finis, that's it.

Sir, the last word is now yours - I have had my say.

[Qwerty]

Now on the CBn main page...

'Quantum of Solace' Grabs $3.6 Million Over Christmas Weekend

Worldwide total stands at roughly $539.3 million

[blueman]

I was actually talking about all time Xmas day openings - previous champ was Ali with 10mm or so..if you're interested that is...many wouldn't!!

Well let's compare apples to apples as opposed to a movie released a long time ago.

Here is a number from today's "Box Office Guru":


Top 10 vs. 2006.......172,899,000 v 175,161,532 -1.3


It says that the box office of the top 10 from this passed weekend was down 1.3 percent from the box office of the top 10 from the same weekend of 2006, the year Casino Royale was released.

The data shows the Top 10 grossed about $2.2 Million LESS than the Top 10 for the same data point in '06.

Hope that helps.

Ok - this is HONESTLY my last word on the matter...I don't buy the argument that QoS isn't doing as well due to an overall decrease in BO generally - that argument in my opinion is a red herring and a non-starter. If the movie is good enough and/or has the audience appeal - it will do the business regardless of any other factor - and that includes recessions, no matter how bad, which as I've said before have actually been good for BO. TDK was released this year and is the second highest grossing movie in history in North America (not inflation adjusted of course), Iron Man, Indiana Jones did 300mm, even Hancok did over 200mm. In my opinion if QoS was a better movie it would have hit the 200mm mark. So, in summary, QoS is a hit - a big one - in line with all the successful Bonds to date..BUT it coulda/shoulda/woulda done better if it was a better film and the non-fan base movie goers gave it better word of mouth.

The End, Finis, that's it.

Sir, the last word is now yours - I have had my say.

All those films you cite were released pre-recession.... Has any film released post-recession grossed more than $200m? (quick answer: no I rest my case ).

[HildebrandRarity]

All those films you site were released pre-recession.... Has any film released post-recession grossed more than $200m? (quick answer: no I rest my case ).

No. Madagascar 2 is at $175 Million.

It is running out of steam and is BEHIND Madagascar's $194 Million from 2005.

If (*if*) there was to be a $200 Million dollar flick this Autumn/Winter, it was suppose to be Madagascar 2, and not Q0S, that was in the running to do so especially given that the first one was a mere $6 Million shy of hitting the target.

[Germanlady]

Can anybody tell me, how much those 540 Mill we have so far is in 2006 CR money? I think we will end up around 560 Mill with Japan (hopefully).

[HildebrandRarity]

Can anybody tell me, how much those 540 Mill we have so far is in 2006 CR money?

Do you mean adjusted for Currency/foreign exchange fluctuations?

From the UK alone, if you use CR's level for the value of the Pound (i.e. 1.9812), then you can add about $25 million more to Q0S's total of $540 which would bring Q0S to $565 Million in "2006 CR money".

Why?

CR did 55 Million Pounds in 2006 using 1.9812 to generate $109 Million.

QOS is 53 Million Pounds thus far with 1.4800 to give it ~ $79 Million.

The pound is down HUGE from 2006 which makes QOS's Dollar numbers look less. It's significant.

The UK is Bond's second biggest market after the US, so the value of the Pound has a material impact on it's global box office numbers when translated back to US $$s.

Does that help?

[YOLT]

Now on the CBn main page...

'Quantum of Solace' Grabs $3.6 Million Over Christmas Weekend

Worldwide total stands at roughly $539.3 million

Well did I got right ? It says that QOS gained 3.6 over the weekend (fri-sun) worlwide. It also mentions that QOS got 1.44 at US and 2.2 international.

Now is 2.2m$ just weekend numbers or the total week ? It seems 2.2 is just weekend numbers (3.6-1.4=2.2) If so what happened to the remaining 4 days ?

QOS gained about 1.5m$ in 4 days in US. If so I think international numbers for THE WHOLE WEEK can be 4-4.4m$ which the total will be: 541m$ not 539m$

Can anybody tell me, how much those 540 Mill we have so far is in 2006 CR money? I think we will end up around 560 Mill with Japan (hopefully).

No it will be higher There is still 10-15m$ from the world, except Japan. And CR made 18m$ in Japan. No single country had less admissions than CR did.

Also the Yen appreciated. If it were 10Yen=1US dollar. Than it would have been awsome:)

[SPOTTER]

If people on here are so interested in how financially successful a Bond film is then they should deal in worldwide admissions. That is the only thing that counts. A film's success is always based on how much it has taken in terms of money but as the years go on inflation kicks in and comparing movies in financial terms goes right out of the window. People need to start looking at admissions. This is something that is never mentioned and it's sad. The Dark Knight is by all accounts the 4th highest grossing film of all time. In terms of money it is but in worldwide admissions it is nowhere near. Comparing QOS to CR in terms of money is pointless to. At the end of the formers run you really need to look at how many people actually paid to see the film. I think that is a far more excitng figure to look at than judging a film on how many dollars it took.

The world is changing all the time but a lot of people still have a great love for the cinema but with the market for, tv, dvd's and piracy more people were obviously attending the cinema way back when. Hence the higher admissions.

It is a fair assumption that more people are interested in James Bond now than say ten or twenty years ago if we look at how the Craig era has been recieved so far. (in terms of tickets sold) It's safe to assume that in general more people will watch QOS than any of the Brosnans, Dalton's and later Moore's so there is no need to panick people. Craig will be back I'm sure. Bond will continue to entertain us with or without him so relax. take it easy. Have a happy new year and get counting those addmissions.

[HildebrandRarity]

If people on here are so interested in how financially successful a Bond film is then they should deal in worldwide admissions. That is the only thing that counts.

People need to start looking at admissions. This is something that is never mentioned and it's sad.

At the end of the formers run you really need to look at how many people actually paid to see the film.

...a lot of people still have a great love for the cinema but with the market for, tv, dvd's and piracy more people were obviously attending the cinema way back when. Hence the higher admissions.

It's safe to assume that in general more people will watch QOS than any of the Brosnans, Dalton's and later Moore's so there is no need to panick people.

O I agree. Some of us have mentioned admissions. Germany, in fact, is the only big Bond market that goes strictly by this metric.

Also, you're right that piracy has probably somewhat eaten into Q0S moreso than it did CR. [There are active posters here on CBn who've addmitedly watched Q0S on dvd without buying a ticket...imagine the non-Bond geeks out there?]

In addition, I don't think the admissions are that much more for Craig than Brosnan in the comparable/established territories. What has happened is that newer screens in Russia, China and India have given Craig an advantage over Brosnan Internationally.

It's very true that Craig has beaten Dalton, Lazenby (the least popular Bond/Bond film at release) and the 80s Moores. LALD and the late 70s Moores, I think, hold up well in terms of admissions.

There has really only been two down "periods" in Bond history: Lazenby and then the general falling trend through the 1980s. TMWTGG was just an outlier it would seem.

[Germanlady]

Can anybody tell me, how much those 540 Mill we have so far is in 2006 CR money?

Do you mean adjusted for Currency/foreign exchange fluctuations?

From the UK alone, if you use CR's level for the value of the Pound (i.e. 1.9812), then you can add about $25 million more to Q0S's total of $540 which would bring Q0S to $565 Million in "2006 CR money".

Why?

CR did 55 Million Pounds in 2006 using 1.9812 to generate $109 Million.

QOS is 53 Million Pounds thus far with 1.4800 to give it ~ $79 Million.

The pound is down HUGE from 2006 which makes QOS's Dollar numbers look less. It's significant.

The UK is Bond's second biggest market after the US, so the value of the Pound has a material impact on it's global box office numbers when translated back to US $$s.

Does that help?

Yes, thank you - so you say that only with the UK it would be at around 565? Add the worldwide difference and we have - I gues - a result well above CR. That won´t put more money in their pockets, but its good to know.

[blueman]

Well, overall the numbers are good for QoS. When a film opens up with a nearly $70 million dollar opening weekend in the U.S., you know there's pent-up demand for the product. The anticipation and excitement for the movie was there and it was reflected in the opening weekend grosses. Everything AFTER that weekend is simply word-of-mouth and referrals (or lack thereof). As well as QoS did, it still left a lot of money on the table. It should be closing in on $200 million U.S. dollars right now, and not struggling to match CR's US gross.

This movie should have done better. The stars were aligned for it. The advertising was there. The demand was there.

You forgot one: the recession was and still is there.

But the movie didn't resonate with people the way Casino Royale did...

Really? You talked to all those people personally? Or is that just your own humble opinion?

Forester's mandate was to build upon the foundation that CR set...

He did. You missed it.

The audiences seemed to be willing to go along with Craig on this film even though the film itself wasn't as good as previous entries.

You're right, it was better.

So, question for ya: are your opinions more or less valid than anyone else's? You present them as absolutes (the new film didn't resonate, Forster didn't build well on Campbell's foundation, QOS just wasn't as good), so that's why I'm asking. The one thing you're basing your opinions on, BO, has a pretty big mitigating factor you fail to mention, ie the recession.

But even allowing that Forster's film didn't punch all the buttons CR did: so? CR in comparison is very much a more audience-friendly film, both the story (falling in love) and the telling. QOS does indeed build upon that, and surprisingly so with content and tone. If it was the dud some paint it as, that $539m would be a lot less IMO. Pretty clear, QOS is no LTK, in fact it succeeds in telling a similarly dark Bond tale where the earlier film failed completely - isn't that a feather in Forster's and EON's caps? LTK: they went there and we can pat them on the head for that even if the film itself sucked bad and bombed at the BO; QOS: went to a similar well but got everything right - and it's reflected in the BO numbers. No QOS isn't a happy-happy joy-joy Bond film like TSWLM, but would that really satisfy? Haven't we had enough - decades' worth - retread Bond films by now? Isn't it about time EON stretched that envelop a bit? And with Craig in CR and now with QOS, seems they have, to the tune of over $1 billion (and counting).

Fleming wrote GF, yet he also wrote YOLT. Aren't we glad that EON has managed - finally - to get such a YOLTish film in the can, and well enough to earn the big BO bucks it's raking in? If there'd been no recession, QOS would likely be knocking on $200m's door about now, so any expectation EON/Sony had for it 6 months ago IS being met IMO. That it's in that neighborhood is a triumph, for the type of Bond film it is (ie singular, throwing out the LTK comparison as naff cuz the films are worlds apart in terms of quality, you have to go all the way back to OHMSS to make any sort of valid comparison IMO).

23 will likely be more standard-issue Bond, but not cuz QOS underperformed IMO. They finished the story arc begun in CR in two films (very wise IMO), now EON can let their Bond-horses run free.

Look at it this way: QOS did what OHMSS couldn't even do - put a very adult-themed Bond film into theatres, AND made a mint from it. Again, hard to see anything but a triumph for EON/Sony/Craig in that. JMHO (which I recognize as such ).

[blueman]

If people on here are so interested in how financially successful a Bond film is then they should deal in worldwide admissions. That is the only thing that counts. A film's success is always based on how much it has taken in terms of money but as the years go on inflation kicks in and comparing movies in financial terms goes right out of the window. People need to start looking at admissions. This is something that is never mentioned and it's sad. The Dark Knight is by all accounts the 4th highest grossing film of all time. In terms of money it is but in worldwide admissions it is nowhere near. Comparing QOS to CR in terms of money is pointless to. At the end of the formers run you really need to look at how many people actually paid to see the film. I think that is a far more excitng figure to look at than judging a film on how many dollars it took.

The world is changing all the time but a lot of people still have a great love for the cinema but with the market for, tv, dvd's and piracy more people were obviously attending the cinema way back when. Hence the higher admissions.

It is a fair assumption that more people are interested in James Bond now than say ten or twenty years ago if we look at how the Craig era has been recieved so far. (in terms of tickets sold) It's safe to assume that in general more people will watch QOS than any of the Brosnans, Dalton's and later Moore's so there is no need to panick people. Craig will be back I'm sure. Bond will continue to entertain us with or without him so relax. take it easy. Have a happy new year and get counting those addmissions.

This isn't official, a fan on another board came up with it by dividing ticket sales by the reported cost of a ticket for that year... although seems pretty accurate to me:

1. thunderball-138.4
2. goldfinger-132.9
3. frwl-92.8
4. yolt-92.2
5. lald-91.4
6. casino royale-90.4
7. moonraker-83.8
8. swlm-83.1
9. goldeneye-81
10. dr. no-79.5
*11. qos-76.0
12. dad-74.5
13. tnd-72.5
14. daf-70.3
15. fyeo-70.3
16. twine-64.6
17. octopussy-60.
18. ohmss-57.8
19. mwgg-52.2
20. nsna-50.8
21. living daylights-49
22. avtak-43
23. ltk-38

I believe the numbers are in millions sold after conversion to dollars, so make of that what you will. FWIW (QOS may climb a spot or two by the time it finishes its run, seems in pretty good shape ).

Pretty clear, Craig is the most successful Bond since Moore's glory days of the 70s (TMWTGG excepted, another darker and recession-year Bond , and well, like LTK it's not quite as good even if I like it best out of Moore's Bond films); and other than the "novelty spike ( )" of GE, Brosnan's greatest hits Bond films ranks about where one would expect, solidly in the middle.

[jamie00007]

You can use admissions to compare movies made close to one another, but comparing movies made decades apart by admissions is an excercise in futility, theres just so many variables.

For example, you've got the amount of screens. They used to open on a couple of hundred. Now they open on thousands. But then the old movies played for years and were constantly rereleased. Now they only have one shot and its for about two months. Youve also got big differences in population. And then theres things like DVDs, cable TV and downloading that the old movies werent competing with. So when comparing admission numbers wouldnt it be fairer to include the number of DVDs sold? Thats an admission of a sort. Then theres things like economies, emerging asian and middle eastern markets, all that sort of thing. Just too many variables.

Edited by jamie00007, 30 December 2008 - 04:50 AM.

[blueman]

Oh totally agree about the variables, but that's why any modern era film breaking into the top ten is significant IMO. The 60s Bonds are still worlds apart, but exciting to see a new Bond hit such (relative) heights.

[SPOTTER]

I have the worldwide addmissions here for every official James Bond film. These figures are about as accurate as you can get based on Box Office Mojo's adjust for inflation system.

1. THUNDERBALL 139.8 million tickets sold
2. GOLDFINGER 134.3
3. YOU ONLY LIVE TWICE 93.0
4. FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE 92.8
5. LIVE AND LET DIE 91.4
6. CASINO ROYALE 90.7
7. DR. NO 85.1
8. MOONRAKER 83.7
9. THE SPY WHO LOVED ME 83.1
10. GOLDENEYE 81.9
11. DIE ANOTHER DAY 74.3
12. TOMORROW NEVER DIES 73.9
13. THE WORLD IS NOT ENOUGH 71.2
14. DIAMONDS ARE FOREVER 70.3
15. FOR YOUR EYES ONLY 70.2
16. OCTOPUSSY 59.5
17. ON HER MAJESTY'S SECRET SERVICE 57.7
18. THE MAN WITH THE GOLDEN GUN 52.1
19. THE LIVING DAYLIGHTS 48.9
20. A VIEW TO A KILL 42.9
21. LICENCE TO KILL 39.3

QUANTUM OF SOLACE is currently at the 76 million mark with still a few months left to play in the cinema and is yet to open in Japan so things are looking okay. Although I don't think it will get the admissions CR took, it will probably get to the 80+ mark which is still pretty good.

[HildebrandRarity]

How many tickets did CR and the average Brosnan sell in Japan?

[HildebrandRarity]

Thanks for the numbers, SPOTTER!

These figures are about as accurate as you can get based on Box Office Mojo's adjust for inflation system.

The figures, however, would only use the average US ticket price, thus making it not a very 'proper' number for world-wide admissions.

Still, it's much better than nothing and your's and blueman's figures are much appreciated.

Thanks guys.

[YOLT]

I am going to show how the exchange rates affected the revenues. I wanted to compare QOS and Wanted which made similiar numbers in Turkey (Angelina Jolie The first numbers are in Turkish Lira as you see QOS is way ahead:

http://www.sinematur...=...2008&firma=

9 Quantum of Solace 07.11.2008 WB 2.896.578
10 Wanted 27.06.2008 UIP 2.423.364

I took these numbers from boxofficemojo. Because Wanted was release in June with lover exchange rates, it seemes it gained MORE than QOS

22 Wanted UIP $1,983,963 6/27
23 Quantum of Solace WB $1,918,541 11/7

http://www.boxoffice.../turkey/yearly/

Also to remind there is no single "foreign" film in the top 10 of the Turkish film chart this year QOS is at 9 at foreign films.

There is about a total of %20 difference just because of the rates.

Please consider these numbers "QOS HATERS".

[HildebrandRarity]

I am going to show how the exchange rates affected the revenues. I wanted to compare QOS and Wanted which made similiar numbers in Turkey (Angelina Jolie The first numbers are in Turkish Lira as you see QOS is way ahead:

http://www.sinematur...=...2008&firma=

9 Quantum of Solace 07.11.2008 WB 2.896.578
10 Wanted 27.06.2008 UIP 2.423.364

I took these numbers from boxofficemojo. Because Wanted was release in June with lover exchange rates, it seemes it gained MORE than QOS

22 Wanted UIP $1,983,963 6/27
23 Quantum of Solace WB $1,918,541 11/7

http://www.boxoffice.../turkey/yearly/There is about a total of %20 difference just because of the rates.

Please consider these numbers "QOS HATERS".

Yes. The big move took place between August and October. That's when all the currencies fell v the US Dollar.

If TDK, Indy Jones and Iron Man were released in October and November, their International numbers would be significantly lower than their reported numbers from Summer.

I wonder how the studio accountants go about figuring-out profits and losses.

[HildebrandRarity]

Enough people showed up opening weekend to earn nearly $70 million dollars, recession be damned.

Hey Gravity's Silhouette, do you recon that if people weren't getting Q0S dvds for Christmas that its box office wouldn't appear so front-loaded as it seems to be?

You have to look at facts.

The first fact is that in "US Domestic", Q0S is running AHEAD of CR after the same day count.

Even in the UK, Q0S is at 54.3 Million Pounds and dropped only 8 percent (!), the lowest drop in the top 20 movies for the weekend of the 26-28th:

http://www.boxoffice...2...k=52&p=.htm

In comparison, CR's total run in the UK was 55.3 Million Pounds.




The second fact is that Q0S dvds were being given out as Christmas presents, something which didn't occur with CR.

[YOLT]

You forgot one: the recession was and still is there.

What are youuuuuuuuu boy? Some kind of fact-checking machine?

Enough people showed up opening weekend to earn nearly $70 million dollars, recession be damned. That's your proof right there.

Really? You talked to all those people personally? Or is that just your own humble opinion?

Yes I did. Next question.

He did. You missed it.

I never miss. We wanted more of what we got in Casino Royale, but what we got was Tomorrow Never Dies Harder.

So, question for ya: are your opinions more or less valid than anyone else's? You present them as absolutes

And? So? I assume that people know I'm giving my opinion on the matter and that it's redundant to preface each comment with a disclaimer that merely states the obvious. It's not like I'm putting a gun to peoples heads and brainwashing them by forcing them to read my drivel.

Are my opinions more valid than anyone elses? Well, why is that question even being asked? It's not like I shot someone else's theories or opinions down. But yes, my assertions of fact, and opinions, are more valid than just about everyone else's on this board. I stand behind every comment I've ever made, including ones that were bone-headedly wrong. My ego is bigger than Zorin's zeppelin, and filled with more hot air.

Here are the admission numbers for Turkey:

14 Casino Royale 17.11.2006 WB 16 255.734

9 Quantum of Solace 07.11.2008 WB 7 300.599

However it gained less in terms of US dollar because of the appreciation of dollar.

USD/TRY 1 ABD DOLARI 1.4369 17.11.2006

USD/TRY 1 ABD DOLARI 1.5368 07.11.2008

I just choose the days that they were relased the marjim maybe higher because we have seen higher values.

This happened all over the world. QOS has beaten CR in Turkey. In US CR can beat QOS. But in general the revenues has diclined because of the sharp appreciation of dollar.

Note: Numbers taken from Turkish Central Bank. It has an also English database so you can chack it. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/

[blueman]

You forgot one: the recession was and still is there.

What are youuuuuuuuu boy? Some kind of fact-checking machine?

Enough people showed up opening weekend to earn nearly $70 million dollars, recession be damned. That's your proof right there.

And same for Twilight, and for...

Lots have recent releases have opened strong. Problem is legs, and no film released since the recession hit in the US has grossed over $175m. That's freakin' huge. I think this might be another one of those bone-headed theories re the Craig era you have to eat... sorry about that, but I suspect you're used to it by now.

[Qwerty]

UPDATED...

'Quantum of Solace' - Box Office Details

CommanderBond.net rounds up all the latest details (Updated Weekly)

[HildebrandRarity]

The only way those final two preditions for final International and final Overall Total will come true is if the accountants convince everyone to use the same exchange rates that were used for Casino Royale.

At current exchange rates there's NO WAY those last predictions will come true.

We also know that pirated DVDs were sold for Christmas.

So, the only other way to make those preditions come true would be to sue people for
lost revenue.

[MrKidd]

You forgot one: the recession was and still is there.

What are youuuuuuuuu boy? Some kind of fact-checking machine?

Enough people showed up opening weekend to earn nearly $70 million dollars, recession be damned. That's your proof right there.

And same for Twilight, and for...

Lots have recent releases have opened strong. Problem is legs, and no film released since the recession hit in the US has grossed over $175m. That's freakin' huge. I think this might be another one of those bone-headed theories re the Craig era you have to eat... sorry about that, but I suspect you're used to it by now.

As I've said I'm not going to say anything more about Q0S BO, I've had my say, but I have to pick up on your constant assertion that the recession has only just begun. FYI - the subprime mess first hit in August 2007 - - and things got really bad in the US - headline hitting so - in early 2008. The press have been 'debating' whether we've been in a recession for months and months, and there are political reasons why noone wants to admit a recession is happening, but anybody who knows anything about the economy agrees we've been in recession for most, if not all, of this year. I'll remind you that Bear Stearns went bust in March, BoA rescued Countrywide (the US biggest mortgage provider) in January 2008. All before Iron Man et all made more than 175mm. I'm not going to say a word about the BO but your naive reasoning required correction. If I do does it make you feel any better?

Edited by MrKidd, 02 January 2009 - 06:19 PM.

[blueman]

Don't think it was felt in folks' pocketbooks til after summer, and really only hit home in the last couple months. Just a casual observation, not science. FWIW.

[MrKidd]

Don't think it was felt in folks' pocketbooks til after summer, and really only hit home in the last couple months. Just a casual observation, not science. FWIW.

Not true - diposable income peaked in November 2007, payrolls decreased and unemployment increased for at least 10 months of this year. Where do you live? Because in the US its been obvious for months what's been going on. BTW - these aren't my stats - the National Bureau of Economic Research have formally announced the recession started in December 07.

[blueman]

Yeah, but we have this magic thing called credit in this world. Again, just an observation on spending habits, but looked to me like summer was biz as usual, but disposable income became mighty scarce around September or so.