At the moment (judging purely by what the rumour mill is churning out) it seems the most likely candidates are Craig and McMahon. Personally I think McMahon is more likely.
Agreed with both of those statements, Skudor. Having seen LAYER CAKE last night, I'd love to see Craig in the role (if it isn't going to be Owen), but he'd be an extraordinarily brave choice (which accounts for both my interest in him and my suspicion that The Powers That Be would pull back from the brink before casting him).
I think Craig will go down as the Sam Neill of the hunt for Bond 6 - an excellent actor, with amazing screen presence, and plenty of really terrific Bondian qualities (the cockiness, the smoothness, the danger, etc.), but ultimately someone whose less-than-perfect facial features prevented him getting the job.
Also, it seems that the LAYER CAKE actor/director combo of Craig and Matthew Vaughn was Sony's choice for CASINO ROYALE at one point, not Eon's, and that now that Vaughn is out of the picture maybe Craig is too.