333 replies to this topic

[Dustin]

I guess I'm still waiting for some evidence of SP being a disappointment to the people who made and distributed it...supposition (even educated supposition) is neat and all, but an actual comment or three would be nice (from someone other than Brosnan). Too much to ask?

Well, look at me, I'm still waiting for all that stellar output MGM was supposed to produce after becoming 'new and improved'. Didn't happen either...

But I digress. Okay then, let's see if we can approach the topic from a different direction. According to your - no doubt just as educated supposition - there should be a great number of smiling faces behind the works of SPECTRE; people drunken with bliss from counting their considerable profits and ready to sign blindly any contract MGM might offer them for the mere chance to have a similarly ecstatic experience three years from now.

Let's see those faces, okay? Can't be all that difficult to find them...

Blueman, we both know there will be no such thing since the people in the know keep mum about their exact figures. If for example pension fund XYZ turns up with actual returns only around 88 per cent of the projected sum, with no way of catching up on the missing 12 per cent till end of December (or afterwards) that result can be anything from a minor drawback to a real disaster. But you are hardly going to hear about it unless you are either managing that fund, one of its investors - or the tax officer responsible for it. People rarely feel the urge to brag about the things that went not according to plan.

Once more I have to wonder what happened to your knowledgeable grasp on the matter? Supposition, as you put it, is the most we have in this case. And you are perfectly aware of this, so I'm at a loss why you pretend to be ignorant of the fact.

But past experience, together with a number of better known examples, give a pretty good idea where a production stands in terms of break-even point, profit zone and so on; so it's indeed a pretty well educated supposition, thank you.

But since my supposition doesn't cut it for you - and yours not for me - we will have to continue to disagree. What other way would there be to support the argument either way?

Of course we could always wait till the proceedings for MGM's next distribution partner are under way. There is always a chance the odd spin doctor turns up and drops a line or two about how they want things presented. How funny that will be...

How tremendously constructive.

Just so nobody wonders, I put Mr Socks to rest. Anybody feeling the need for a puppet to voice his dissent is wrong here.

I hope that's okay with you, blueman?

[A Kristatos]

I don't know anyone who expected SP to beat SF at the box office. Why should we assume the producers did?

Thank you.

I'll back you up as well. SP is a terrific Bond film with a classic feel. It's on the verge of grossing $900 million worldwide. It seems like the same six or seven people here are constantly trashing that figure, and the film itself. But if anyone believes this is a failure, I don't know what to say.

Edited by A Kristatos, 16 December 2015 - 10:43 AM.

[Dustin]

I don't know anyone who expected SP to beat SF at the box office. Why should we assume the producers did?

Thank you.

I'll back you up as well. SP is a terrific Bond film with a classic feel. It's on the verge of grossing $900 million worldwide. It seems like the same six or seven people here are constantly trashing that figure, and the film itself. But if anyone believes this is a failure, I don't know what to say.

Can't see anybody trashing that figure here. I repeatedly pointed out - even in this very thread - that SPECTRE is still a strong money earner. As far as I can see nobody claimed otherwise. Would you be so kind as to point to where that famous trashing happened?

What you actually can find here is somebody deliberately playing dumb when I detailed a number of facts we were both well aware of. Instead of supporting his case with facts of his own. As far as I am concerned the case is closed, I don't need to work on an agenda here. Let's hope nobody else does either, shall we?

[seawolfnyy]

Spectre has earned a lot of money and will end up in the top 50 highest grossing films of all time. It's already the second highest grossing Bond film. Though, the problem is, with the box office returns of Skyfall, Spectre's budget, and expectations for the whole production coupled with how much money 2015 films have earned at the box office, $900 million still may be viewed as a failure. It doesn't mean it is, but it does mean that Spectre failed to live up to its lofty goals. Spider-Man 3 and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 both suffered from this problem. Both were financially successful, but poor reviews and (at least in TASM2's case) lower than expected box office returns, turned the films from hits to failures.

[Dustin]

Spectre has earned a lot of money and will end up in the top 50 highest grossing films of all time. It's already the second highest grossing Bond film. Though, the problem is, with the box office returns of Skyfall, Spectre's budget, and expectations for the whole production coupled with how much money 2015 films have earned at the box office, $900 million still may be viewed as a failure. It doesn't mean it is, but it does mean that Spectre failed to live up to its lofty goals. Spider-Man 3 and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 both suffered from this problem. Both were financially successful, but poor reviews and (at least in TASM2's case) lower than expected box office returns, turned the films from hits to failures.

In a nutshell, spot on. Can't see where the harm is in admitting this reality.

[blueman]

Funny image, but not my work, sorry.

 

Dustin, you have not agreed to disagree, and as for ignoring "facts," well I don't know what to say to that as you haven't presented any, just what you "feel" must be true.  My feeling: if I'm a savvy producer and just hit it big with SF, I might hope the next one would rake it in and do even better, but would I expect it to?  Not if I'm smart and have been doing this for a while successfully, I wouldn't, because I'd know SF was an anomaly for all the reasons stated and in this business it pays to recognize one.  SP got the budget it needed, and is damn close to equaling SF's take, and that's more than what I would have expected, again given some successful history in making and releasing movies.  Right now, it's performing above expectations, IMHO and I believe (but it's just a feeling) in the minds of the producers.

 

That is all my opinion, clearly (I hope), and if I've somehow stated something in there as fact then apologies, not my intent at all and - again - markedly different from what you've been stating Dustin, reread some of what you've wrote and I'm sure you'll catch it like myself and others have.  If YOU had different expectations for SP, well fine then and party on with your bad self.  Just recognize: it's you.  And if someone agrees with you, that's fine too, opinions on a fan board typically range the spectrum, right?  Anyway, when Babs or MW go on the record saying SP didn't meet their box office expectations, post it (MW did at one point say QOS wasn't what he had expected it to be, words to that effect, so not thinking they wouldn't at some point if they truly did feel that way).

[Dustin]

You keep coming back for more, don't you?

I think we understand each other pretty fine, blueman. I have nothing to add, so I'm at a loss what more I can do for you here. You are perfectly entitled to your opinion, otherwise you would not be here any more. But you better have to be prepared not everybody shares your sentiments. Can't be helped, such is life. From my perspective we're approaching a point where there is really nothing more I can do for you. On sober reflection I feel confident you will come to the same conclusion.

[blueman]

Yep, I feel there is nothing more I can do for you.

[stromberg]

Funny image, but not my work, sorry.

Maybe the image itself is not your work. But the post was. Or is it a coincidence that the post came from the same I.P. as the one you made minutes ago? I think not. Not a second time (and I don't mean "please").

 

An agreement on disagreement would be very much appreciated.

[blueman]

Coincidence it was. See my PM.

[stromberg]

Oh, come on. I've been doing this job for more than 10 years...

 

It's been a while since I've last heard the kid brother/flatmate/colleague story. It's the equivalent to "my dog ate my homework" from the days of old. I can live with heated discussions every now and then and with the occasional double account but I hate being taken for stupid.

 

Without a doubt, you're going to stand by what you said and I'm going to stand by what I believe (or not). Which redundantises all further discussion on the incident.

[A Kristatos]

I don't know anyone who expected SP to beat SF at the box office. Why should we assume the producers did?

Thank you.

I'll back you up as well. SP is a terrific Bond film with a classic feel. It's on the verge of grossing $900 million worldwide. It seems like the same six or seven people here are constantly trashing that figure, and the film itself. But if anyone believes this is a failure, I don't know what to say.

Can't see anybody trashing that figure here. I repeatedly pointed out - even in this very thread - that SPECTRE is still a strong money earner. As far as I can see nobody claimed otherwise. Would you be so kind as to point to where that famous trashing happened?

What you actually can find here is somebody deliberately playing dumb when I detailed a number of facts we were both well aware of. Instead of supporting his case with facts of his own. As far as I am concerned the case is closed, I don't need to work on an agenda here. Let's hope nobody else does either, shall we?

I can. The people who regard almost $900 million as a failure, including the person who posted just below your post. And I'm not sure why you seem to be uptight about my opinion. All of the sudden you're talking about "agendas" here. Please!

[Jim]

Well, that escalated quickly.

 

Other people's money, eh? One wonders what the atmosphere would have developed into if discussing something that actually affected or threatened any of our personal interests.

[seawolfnyy]

Maybe it's time we killed this thread.

[Dustin]

I don't think so, there is no reason this cannot be discussed sensibly. We've a couple of worse threads our members always managed to get back on track.

Everybody calm down and do the sensible thing, take a step back and consider how much of this affects us.

Not at all is the answer.

[Professor Pi]

Well, I added another $0.000000012 Billion to SPECTRE's coffers yesterday.  So at least I'm doing my part.

[Dustin]

And you're definitely not the only one.

[SecretAgentFan]

So, no reason to start an online petition? 

[MrKidd]

Ah BO chats, gotta love ‘em. As I said in my last post – please read it as it’s very good – no one is calling Spectre a failure – so stop saying that word. But budgets, projections, share prices and pipelines and all that boring business stuff is what BUSINESSES are about – the movie business included. It’s about trends and momentums that cause share prices to move not absolute dollars earned. Apple only sells 5 trillion billion iphones this quarter compared to 5 trillion billion and one last quarter then the results are ‘disappointing’. Don’t blame me blame Wall st!

 

Anyway – I remember having the same irrational discussion with the bluething some time ago – he doesn’t like it so stay clear - it’s not worth it. Make good choices kids and don’t engage. 

[glidrose]

So much has been posted in this thread - and I've not read it all.

But looking at Hockey Mask's weekend (adjusted for inflation) totals, SP is the least successful of Craig's run in the U.S.

So, yes, that is disappointing.

Although worldwide it seems to have beat CR and QOS, even when adjusted for inflation.

Skyfall was definitely an event movie. All that free publicity.

Not sure whose side this puts me on.

I know there were people on MI6 who thought SP could outdo SF. Don't know if the mods want us linking to them, but the meandering thread started in 2013 is now titled "SPECTRE: Can it do $950 Million Worldwide? (..and will 2015 be biggest movie year ever?)"

And we at CBN have this interesting thread from 2012 wondering if B24 can outdo SF. http://debrief.comma...-24-box-office/

Hey, Hockey Mask - if you're not a 00 any more are you now a Jason? Ki Ki Ki Ma Ma Ma.

[Hockey Mask]

Hey, Hockey Mask - if you're not a 00 any more are you now a Jason? Ki Ki Ki Ma Ma Ma.

Yes, there are two movie franchises in my life.

[blueman]

So, no reason to start an online petition? 

This thread is an online petition, exactly what for I'm not sure, lol.

 

Ah BO chats, gotta love ‘em. As I said in my last post – please read it as it’s very good – no one is calling Spectre a failure – so stop saying that word. But budgets, projections, share prices and pipelines and all that boring business stuff is what BUSINESSES are about – the movie business included. It’s about trends and momentums that cause share prices to move not absolute dollars earned. Apple only sells 5 trillion billion iphones this quarter compared to 5 trillion billion and one last quarter then the results are ‘disappointing’. Don’t blame me blame Wall st!

 

Anyway – I remember having the same irrational discussion with the bluething some time ago – he doesn’t like it so stay clear - it’s not worth it. Make good choices kids and don’t engage. 

Lovely, thanks. And I think "disappointment at the box office" is what's on the table, not "failure." Still waiting for someone involved with the money end of SP to sound off on that, so far it's fanboys with agendas and maybe a lazy reporter or two...

 

$822 mil worldwide as of today. Less than SF by what, $200 mil? Will the next Bond film have a smaller budget (many on this board claimed that would happen with SF as QOS didn't make more than CR, how did that work out?)? Concern about how the box office will impact the budget for the next one is about all I can think of that might really matter, but it's never stopped Bond producers before (DAF after OHMSS, TSWLM after TMWTGG, GE after LTK). Bond keeps making money give or take, and the budgets are what they are. (sorry if this conversation isn't safe for children, I'll stop now)

[A Kristatos]

Ah BO chats, gotta love ‘em. As I said in my last post – please read it as it’s very good – no one is calling Spectre a failure – so stop saying that word. But budgets, projections, share prices and pipelines and all that boring business stuff is what BUSINESSES are about – the movie business included. It’s about trends and momentums that cause share prices to move not absolute dollars earned. Apple only sells 5 trillion billion iphones this quarter compared to 5 trillion billion and one last quarter then the results are ‘disappointing’. Don’t blame me blame Wall st!

Anyway – I remember having the same irrational discussion with the bluething some time ago – he doesn’t like it so stay clear - it’s not worth it. Make good choices kids and don’t engage.

I made a couple of contributions to this thread, and I don't know the background of this particular poster and what he tried to do. But putting him aside, there were people posting here that while maybe not outright calling the SP box office a failure, where most certainly implying that many people would think it's a failure. All I was saying was that this is probably the wrong conclusion to make. But some posters here seem to be implying that many people involved in making this film would think of this as a failure. I don't see that happening though. I would think most of the studio executives are more than happy with the box office here.

Edited by A Kristatos, 18 December 2015 - 03:55 AM.

[Dustin]

So much has been posted in this thread - and I've not read it all.

But looking at Hockey Mask's weekend (adjusted for inflation) totals, SP is the least successful of Craig's run in the U.S.

So, yes, that is disappointing.

Although worldwide it seems to have beat CR and QOS, even when adjusted for inflation.

Skyfall was definitely an event movie. All that free publicity.

Not sure whose side this puts me on.

Places you in reality; certainly no harm in that.

To show some scope perhaps some actual figures are helpful. I took them from The Numbers, as good a place as any other to learn about such facts. They are rounded, but not so much as making them completely obsolete, merely for the sake of convenience.

SKYFALL had a production budget of $ 200.000.000 and took in a hefty 1.1 billion. Meaning it earned its producers $ 900.000.000 before taxes*. That's a rate of 5.5. Or in other terms: every invested dollar returned home in the company of 4.50.

SPECTRE had a production budget of $ 300.000.000 (some claim more, but we will ignore this likewise) and currently, at the end of its cycle, sits somewhere at $ 820.000.000. Some say it will reach up to 900.000.000, some doubt it. For the sake of the argument we will just agree on 900.000.000 and be done with it. That's a rate of 3; every invested dollar returned with two buddies.

For reasons of comparison we may take a look at an example from the genre, outside Bond: M:I ROGUE NATION. Different scale altogether, but not so different as not to give us an idea about proportions. At a budget of $ 150.000.000 (source Box Office Mojo) the film took in roughly $ 680.000.000. That's a rate of 4.5.



*That's still not the profit but we will ignore the details here, they don't concern us.

[SecretAgentFan]

Thank you.  This is what we were actually talking about. 

 

It is not about insulting the people who loved SPECTRE as a movie, it is just about looking at these numbers, to get a better impression of how SPECTRE actually is doing at the box office.

 

No vitriol involved, no agenda.

[Jim]

So the rich people got a bit richer at our expense albeit perhaps proportionately not as much richer as they did last time out?

 

Still, y'know, cool. Hooray all round.

[Dustin]

Just so.

 

The thing is, in the current climate you have to look long and hard for a capital investment that offers any returns - legally - in roughly the same region. That said, film business is notoriously fickle and normally not considered safe; many players in it are in the game because they have similar use for losses as for profits. Bond itself is not considered a top profit investment, that would be vehicles like BLAIR WITCH PROJECT where $60.000 returned $ 248.000.000. But Bond in the film market is considered a safe investment and that is the main attraction.

 

For the production side such a particular situation offers interesting possibilities as they can practically pick their investors from a large number of interested parties. Actually you can even think of constructions that offer the right to invest capital and finance that investment via a debt with the production side themselves, thanks to low interest rates. There are any number of ingenious models floating around that offer venture capital a share of the cake with different conditions and chances on profits. The actual numbers given at sites like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers tell only part of the story; the vast majority of that business is not invested in one single film but a whole number of firms and productions, so they always have to calculate with mixed returns and profits.   

[seawolfnyy]

This all perfectly demonstrates how the film may be seen as a failure by the film's investors and producers. The ereturns did not meet expectations. Not on the critical front, nor the commercial one. It's not meant as a slight to those who enjoyed the film. It's just business. As I stated above Spider-Man 3 made $890 million and it is widely seen as a failure and one that led to the equally weak Amazing Spider-Man series. The Phantom Menace is another great (or not great) example. In its original run it earned just under $1 billion, however, I don't know if there's anyone in the world who doesn't consider that film to be a failure.

[Achtung74]

But of course LTK beats them all with $150 million worldwide on a $30 million budget for a 5:1 return. 

[stromberg]

But of course LTK beats them all with $150 million worldwide on a $30 million budget for a 5:1 return. 

Nope. That would be Dr. No. Cost roughly 1 million and brought back some 60. With an (assumed) budget of 300 million, SPECTRE would have to make 18 billion.