We're still having this conversation, huh?
The answer, then, is no. He's already 43, and even if Craig makes this his last one -- kind of doubtful since he signed for a 5th and SP isn't likely to fail at the box office -- that would STILL have Elba starting the role at 46 -- older than the youthful-looking Roger Moore was when he started, and too old to have any significant run at the role. Released at 3-year intervals, the best he could hope for would be about 3, and that's IF Craig doesn't do a 5th (BIG "if").
That being said, he's being touted as an early front-runner to win this year's Best Supporting Actor Oscar for a showy villain role (an African warlord with a squad of child soldiers) in "Beasts of No Nation". If he does win, I see him being HEAVILY touted to play a villain in either Craig's last or the next Bond's first.
I've been brainstorming off of the ideas that were originally in play for "The Property of a Lady" in the early 90s, with Bond's mentor being a turncoat villain, and if people really see Elba as Bond-like, then who better to essay the part of the secret agent who taught Bond everything he knows -- a man who was Bond before Bond was, even -- than a 50-something Idris Elba? With all the delving into Bond's past, and the enriching of Bond's character, now is perhaps the best time to beg the question of his future by drawing a parallel with a used-up, embittered, psychologically drowning former agent who outlived his usefulness as a field agent. Perhaps he even held the 007 code name before James Bond did, with the question looming: what's to become of Bond once he's no longer 007? The timing is ripe for a story like this. (And yes, I've been itching to share this for weeks since I first started percolating the idea. Do we have a Fan Fiction section?)
Dave