Realistically though, I think we can be almost certain that the statutory copyright terms in both the EU and USA will be extended before then (there are just too many big entertainment companies pushing for the laws to be changed... and they're making their arguments on a fairly sound legal basis)
Do they? I'm not sure the mere fact there are currently a number of franchises based on the exploitation of characters whose expiring copyright might force big entertainment players to search for new original content is a valid argument. Other characters became public domain without copyright holders and industry forcing their own interests down our throats, why should Bond be different? It's important to look at the consequences of a respective character becoming a public domain subject. When the copyright expires that doesn't mean the holder isn't in a position to use his property any more, he merely can't do so exclusively. In Eon's case they could of course continue to produce Bond films, with the added advantage of using their own trademark elements - gun-barrel, 007 logo, so on - still exclusively. Only, such productions would finally have to compete with other non-Eon productions. I have no fear for Eon's fate there. I'm not even sure the contenders would rush to the starting blocks. Bond at the cinema without the Eon trademark - or the trademark in the 'wrong' place - has a difficult standing.
The copyright was originally intended as a limited monopoly, not an indefinite one. Of course the pressure is on to stretch existing laws to previously unheard of limits, whenever large sums of money are involved. But that doesn't mean original intent of these laws - protecting the originator and his heirs for a definite time - should be completely ignored.
All your points are absolutely valid Dustin. It's certainly the case that the entertainment companies are attempting to push the copyright terms to previously unheard of limits. When it was pointed out that the late Sonny Bono's wish to extend the copyright term to "forever" was unconstitutional, Jack Valentini suggested - quite seriously - that it be extended to "forever minus one day"
When I say that "they're making their arguments on a fairly sound legal basis", I don't mean that their arguments are necessarily correct. But they're in a solid position to argue that copyright law was intended to protect "the originator and his heirs for a definite time", exactly as you say, but that the time period originally settled upon couldn't account for how long the intellectual property would be valuable to those heirs
I imagine MGM/Danjaq, for example, would argue that they have spent billions of dollars investing in the James Bond film franchise and that it would give their competitors an unfair competitive advantage if they were able to to profit from their own James Bond films without having shared any of the risk in that investment.
Again, I don't necessarily agree with this line of reasoning (e.g. if The Walt Disney Company lasts for 1000 years, its copyright on Mickey Mouse should last for 1095 years...) but it has some merit hence why I think it will certainly be up for serious legal debate.
Edited by Sir_James_Moloney, 12 May 2013 - 06:28 PM.