1228 replies to this topic

[HildebrandRarity]

Do any gardening, Hilda?

I tended to my Danish girlfriend's trimmed shrub Friday night!

Does that count?

[Bondian]

Do any gardening, Hilda?

I tended to my Danish girlfriend's trimmed shrub Friday night!

Does that count?

There's nothing like catching up with a cutie from the Danish branch, old man.

I'm sure you found her figure a lot more rounded than the BO for Quantum of Solace.

Holy crap. Now I'm quoting from the Brozza's.

[HildebrandRarity]

Do any gardening, Hilda?

I tended to my Danish girlfriend's trimmed shrub Friday night!

Does that count?

There's nothing like catching up with a cutie from the Danish branch, old man.

So you love to dig into the bush too, Bondy?

[Bondian]

Do any gardening, Hilda?

I tended to my Danish girlfriend's trimmed shrub Friday night!

Does that count?

There's nothing like catching up with a cutie from the Danish branch, old man.

So you love to dig into the bush too, Bondy?

Only the smoked kind of rasher, mate.

[Mike00spy]

What effect will Japan's take have on the final figures-- what are we looking at Worldwide?

[HildebrandRarity]

Japan contributed US$ 19 Million to Casino Royale.

[Bonita]

...in terms of pure ticket sales, it will underperform Casino Royale. Additionally, in terms of adjusted gross, it will also underperform Casino.

Keep dancing....

The jury is still out on that because Q0S has not finished it's run and the data on Winter ticket prices v Summer/pre-deflation prices won't be out for a while either...but one thing is a FACT is that Casino Royale UNDERPERFORMED Die Another Day on both those counts of yours in the US.

Is that not true?

For all of CR's so-called "word-of-mouth", it totally underperformed DAD in the US. There's no debating that.

But even so...even though CR underperformed DAD, what does that say?

So CR underperformed...So what...?

Casino Royale did underperform DAD in the US. This was quite a shock to both Sony and Eon because they understood that the film had much better word of mouth than DAD. They blamed three things:
1. length of the film.
2. the graphic nature of the torture scene kept families away
3. opened against Happy Feet, further drawing away the family audience in North America.

But the film did spectacular international and held up well over the length of its run. More importantly, it did HUGE on DVD & Blu-ray. These figures showed a solid acceptance of Craig as Bond and a growing fan base for Bond in the US. So, just as Austin Powers did only around $50 mil US, the film was such a hit on DVD and VHS that the studio was confident the second would have a huge audience. It did ($206 million for Spy Who Shagged Me). Batman Begins disappointed WB upon opening - only $48.7 million opening weekend. But it hung on. Word of mouth was great. DVD sales were spectacular. WB had very high hopes for The Dark Knight, and rightfully so.

So, maybe you are right. No matter how good a Bond film is, it just won't ever break through here. The evidence to me says something very different. It says that this film could have done over $200 IF audiences had liked it as much as I did. But they didn't. The film underperformed expert projections for its first Sunday. It's drop was faster than it should have been. Word of mouth is just not very good.

Wish it were. But I think films like Marley & Me are quickly showing that this just ain't a question about the economy.

And you can bank that QoS won't meet the actual ticket sales of Casino, whether you wish to believe it or not. It's a better bet than the derivatives market right now.

Keep dancing...

[Bonita]

Looks like ticket prices did rise in 2008. The New York Times reports the following (to be found at:

http://www.nytimes.c...xoffice.html?hp

"Ticket sales at North American movie theaters totaled $9.6 billion, a decrease of less than 1 percent over the previous year, according to Media by Numbers, a box office tracking company. Although attendance declined 5 percent, to about 1.3 billion, the industry was able to buttress revenue with higher ticket prices and premium 3-D offerings."

Of course, the NY Times could be wrong.

Now the head of Regal Entertainment could be wrong, too. He says:

“Considering the economic climate, I think that’s a pretty terrific result,” said Michael L. Campbell, the chief executive of the Regal Entertainment Group, which owns the nation’s largest chain of movie theaters. “This industry is as recession-resistant as any I can think of,” he added.

So, I think we might want to re-examine the premise that QoS lost box office to the recession in the US.

Keep dancing...

Also, using the NY Times numbers, you get an average ticket price of $7.38.

That is 9.6 billion in ticket sales divided by 1.3 billion in attendance.

Happy to see other numbers. These are only the most recent I've seen.

Keep dancing...

[blueman]

So, maybe you are right. No matter how good a Bond film is, it just won't ever break through here. The evidence to me says something very different. It says that this film could have done over $200 IF audiences had liked it as much as I did. But they didn't. The film underperformed expert projections for its first Sunday. It's drop was faster than it should have been. Word of mouth is just not very good.

I'd believe the not so good word of mouth theory if QOS had actually underperformed (for a Bond film). That it's doing what Bond does kinda torpedoes that, regardless of what Sony thought.

CR is the white elephant in the room IMO: that a Bond with a very strong love story had slightly longer legs and made more than usual (for a Bond film) post its theatrical release shouldn't surprise. QOS is Bond back to being Bond, that's what the BO shows, and that it's earning Bond-type $$$ even with its more adult stylings is the surprise IMO.

Bad word of mouth just isn't supported by anything in the numbers. One can read them that way I suppose, but IMHO it's conjecture based on a fallacy.

[HildebrandRarity]

Casino Royale did underperform DAD in the US. This was quite a shock to both Sony and Eon ...

because they understood that the film had much better word of mouth than DAD. They blamed three things:
1. length of the film.
2. the graphic nature of the torture scene kept families away
3. opened against Happy Feet, further drawing away the family audience in North America.

That's the first i've ever heard of Eon being negatively shocked about CR's grosses. What the are you smoking?

Going into October 2006, the jury was out on Daniel Craig and the fact that CR surpassed the VERY PUBLICALLY POPULAR Brosnan's highest grossing Bond was pure relief and joy for them and most James Bond fans.

I don't know where you were back in 2006 but we here were very pleased with CR and it's box office. All of us here discussed run times, Happy Feet and torture/violence scenes to death two years ago!

Tell me something new.

LOL

Shame, too, how these factors didn't hurt the grosses of long and violent/scarey-for-kiddies films like the LORTs and Harry Potters.

[HildebrandRarity]

But the film did spectacular international and held up well over the length of its run.

So, maybe you are right. No matter how good a Bond film is, it just won't ever break through here.

It did well Internationally because 1) the strength of the Pound and other currencies inflated it's grosses when translated back to dollars. Look at what currency moves have been doing to Q0S's grosses. And 2) Russia, China and other former Soviet bloc countries didn't have DAD. The world was changing quickly and CR was shown in more and newer markets.

You need to point ot facts. The rest is pure bull[censored].


So...May be I am right...and the US has a certain 'window' of admissions for Bonds whether its 94 on rottentomatoes or below 60.

But I think films like Marley & Me are quickly showing that this just ain't a question about the economy.

And you can bank that QoS won't meet the actual ticket sales of Casino.

So, you expect Marley & Me to do $200 million?

Call me in March when all the ticket sales are in.

"Ticket sales at North American movie theaters totaled $9.6 billion, a decrease of less than 1 percent over the previous year, according to Media by Numbers, a box office tracking company. Although attendance declined 5 percent, to about 1.3 billion, the industry was able to buttress revenue with higher ticket prices and premium 3-D offerings."

“Considering the economic climate, I think that’s a pretty terrific result,” said Michael L. Campbell, the chief executive of the Regal Entertainment Group, which owns the nation’s largest chain of movie theaters.

So, I think we might want to re-examine the premise that QoS lost box office to the recession in the US.

Keep dancing...

No actually.

These quotes tell me that the box office IS DOWN from last year.

I wonder WHY it's down?

Do tell...

And you're actually providing me with ammunition here...i.e., "Considering the economic climate, I think (Q0S's numbers) are a pretty terrific result..."

These quotes wouldn't have exsisted in the spring BEFORE the stock market crash of September/October and the huge job losses of Sep/Oct/Nov and December (with the data coming out this friday which could have the largest single month of job losses in the US EVER, i.e. December).

Stick your head out of the sand. There was a lot of pain out there in the 4th Quarter of 2008...pain that was not there to such levels back in the Summer.

[HildebrandRarity]

I still remain convinced that if QoS was deemed better...it would have done closer to $200m easily in the USA. It only needed a 3x multiplier from opening weekend.

Welcome back to the party, my dear.

What if opening came in at expectations? Do you remember the expectation numbers?

I'll tell you...$55 Mil, $60 Mil tops. What if Q0S opened at $55 Mil...would you be happier?

The proper end number to use for "expectations" would be to use the multiplier for the "expected" opening. It seems logical to do so.

Once again, Q0S opened WELL ABOVE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE estimate...and then merely CORRECTED to the NATURAL level of the previous 5 Bonds in the new era.

[HildebrandRarity]

Japan contributed US$ 19 Million to Casino Royale.

To add, that gross was calculated when the Yen was at ~119.

The Yen has rallied since then and is currently at ~93.

This means that if the Japanese spent the same amount of Yen on Q0S than they did on CR, then you can add about US$ 24 Mil to the tally.

[HildebrandRarity]

It would have justified its enormous budget and marketing costs.

I said it in late October and i'll say it again. Sony ed up. They set the budget in, let's say, July 2007 during pre-production. Not only did the capital markets change significantly sice then, but they cleary didn't pay attention to the admissions of the average James Bond movie since 1995, regardless of word of mouth.

It's very clear, "great" word-of-mouth/reviews (it would seem) don't punch Bonds above established thresholds in the US market. "Bad things", however, can certainly sink them like it did LTK.

It's pretty clear, isn't it.

Shame about the dummies running Sony Pics but i'm very happy with Quantum and what Eon did. Eon took genuine risks with QOS. They could have played it safe. It's a credit to their series they didn't.

[Bonita]

Casino Royale did underperform DAD in the US. This was quite a shock to both Sony and Eon ...

because they understood that the film had much better word of mouth than DAD. They blamed three things:
1. length of the film.
2. the graphic nature of the torture scene kept families away
3. opened against Happy Feet, further drawing away the family audience in North America.

That's the first i've ever heard of Eon being negatively shocked about CR's grosses. What the are you smoking?

Going into October 2006, the jury was out on Daniel Craig and the fact that CR surpassed the VERY PUBLICALLY POPULAR Brosnan's highest grossing Bond was pure relief and joy for them and most James Bond fans.

I don't know where you were back in 2006 but we here were very pleased with CR and it's box office. All of us here discussed run times, Happy Feet and torture/violence scenes to death two years ago!

Tell me something new.

LOL

Shame, too, how these factors didn't hurt the grosses of long and violent/scarey-for-kiddies films like the LORTs and Harry Potters.

It's just a shame you aren't running the world. Your ability to see into the future is so absolutely amazing.

I don't smoke. You should try to quit. Your penchant for laughing out loud at your own jokes appears to make you unable to hear others properly.

Sorry you didn't know Eon was confounded by the inability of CR to push above the $200 mil mark in the US. The UK grosses in POUNDS, were 55 mil., placing at 6th on the all-time list then. (Momma Mia! soared to #1 this year and moved CR to 7th). No currency issues there at all. CR did better than all but one Harry Potter film in the UK. The next closest Bond (DAD) did 36 million POUNDS. No currency movements to get these comparisons. So in the UK, you get a jump of 34.5% in the UK (less minus ticket inflation, but I have NO CLUE what that number is) and rave reviews, and great word-of-mouth numbers and...NO significant increase in US box office? Oh, yeah, Eon and Sony were dancing in the streets over that.

Now, I can't say what did or did not hurt Casino's numbers in the US compared to the UK. What I can say is what SONY felt could be done to make the grosses higher in the US. Top on that list was that US audiences didn't want epic-length Bonds. Were they right or wrong or did it not matter? I'm sure you, in all your all-seeing wisdom, will let us know.

Keep dancing...

[HildebrandRarity]

So now this has turned into the "Casino Royale Was A Shocking Disappointment in the US" thread, then?

If you were around these forums a month before Casino Royale was released you'd have a good idea how low some of the estimates were.

Honestly, there was worry that CR would do horribly and Craig would only do one.

Start a thread on the subject (in the Craig section) if you don't believe me.

[HildebrandRarity]

Sorry you didn't know Eon was confounded by the inability of CR to push above the $200 mil mark in the US.

...so, if they were "confounded" that CR was unable to push above $200 Mil in the US and only got to $167 Mil, what made them think that the second movie of a new Bond actor - usually less successful for them historically - with supposedly less critical acclaim would be able to do so?

It's a rhetorical question, Bonita.

[SecretAgentFan]

`scuse me, but the sound I just heard was EON laughing all the way to the bank.

So what if QOS does not make as much money as CR in the end? It is a highly successful film. Nothing´s gonna change that.

And it set out to do what it was supposed to: It made it possible for Bond 23 to be made.

[YOLT]

I heard from somewhere that the worldwide total is 547m$ or something like that. It now all depends to Japan. Considering the Golden Compass made 33m$ why not for QOS ? However it seems it will reach 30m$ and stop there

US and other international areas are nearly finished. Another 5m$ from US is wanting too much but who knows ?

With good Japanese numbers we can see 580m$ and more. I will be sad if it makes under CRs' 594m$, which seems the most highly possibility.

[HildebrandRarity]

With good Japanese numbers we can see 580m$ and more. I will be sad if it makes under CRs' 594m$, which seems the most highly possibility.

But that's strictly down to the decline of the Pound and the impact of it from James Bond's second biggest market, the UK.

You know what the impact is...so don't be sad!

[YOLT]

With good Japanese numbers we can see 580m$ and more. I will be sad if it makes under CRs' 594m$, which seems the most highly possibility.

But that's strictly down to the decline of the Pound and the impact of it from James Bond's second biggest market, the UK.

You know what the impact is...so don't be sad!

Ofcourse I know. It s sad that years later no one will mention the depreciation of the currencies regarding dollar, but will only say that QOS didnt did well enough to surprass CR. Thats whats going to happen you know.

[blueman]

With good Japanese numbers we can see 580m$ and more. I will be sad if it makes under CRs' 594m$, which seems the most highly possibility.

But that's strictly down to the decline of the Pound and the impact of it from James Bond's second biggest market, the UK.

You know what the impact is...so don't be sad!

Ofcourse I know. It s sad that years later no one will mention the depreciation of the currencies regarding dollar, but will only say that QOS didnt did well enough to surprass CR. Thats whats going to happen you know.

It wasn't that good of a movie. If only it had been X, Y or Z (ie more to "my" liking). That EON didn't make the Bond film I think they should've is why the BO is "suffering."

Now where's my banana?

[HildebrandRarity]

I heard from somewhere that the worldwide total is 547m$ or something like that.

Mojo has it as $539.6m. An 8m variance at this stage sounds a bit suspect.

These guys at Box Office Guru have it somewhere in the middle at ~ $543.4 mil:

http://www.boxofficeguru.com/intl.htm

[Bonita]

So now this has turned into the "Casino Royale Was A Shocking Disappointment in the US" thread, then?

If you were around these forums a month before Casino Royale was released you'd have a good idea how low some of the estimates were.

Honestly, there was worry that CR would do horribly and Craig would only do one.

Start a thread on the subject (in the Craig section) if you don't believe me.

Hildy,

I know this will come as a shock, but Sony, MGM and Eon do not use the commanderbond.net message boards to create their box office estimates, despite all the wisdom shared here.

What they do is to make calculations based on title awareness, surveys on want-to-see factor, and market research on posters, trailers, television spots, official website hits, and closer to release, advanced ticket sales. They look at similar films, their patterns at the box office, and then they make projections. These are often a bit more informed than those on message boards, but none can obviously top yours. Now studios (and producers like Eon) know there are lots of variables. They also want their films to be hits and are often optimistic. Nature of the beast. Independent firms make projections for all the studios, and they are not swayed by hope, dreams, aspirations of the filmmakers or studio execs involved.

So, while you may have been able to call Bond's grosses for DAD, CR and QoS, what gets the Bond producers and Sony is that the scale of success of CR was at one level in the UK and an entirely different level in the US. But, as I have stated repeatedly, CR's success on DVD and Blu-ray, led Sony to think they had a high anticipation level for QoS. The shorter run-time would give them one more show a day, particularly important on weekends and holidays. The advance anticipation level tested very high. While advance ticket sales were well-below something like Transformers or The Dark Knight, they were very, very good. All signs pointed to a film that might hit $225 mil domestic.

There was only one problem: audiences didn't relate to the film. This is why, for example, the Sunday estimates were so far off - over $2 million. Based on Friday and Saturday, you should pull in X on Sunday. For QoS, the audience didn't show up on Sunday the way they were expected to show. And, before you start talking about Sony screwing up, those calculations are done by an outside firm because the studios long-ago discovered that they couldn't help but cook their own books.

Again, I love the film. I'd go see it tonight if I didn't have to get up early tomorrow (and I could find a show). I want the Bonds to do well. I wanted Quantum to do better. I would have liked it to break Casino's record in the UK (it will do about $4 million pounds less than CR).

And since I have no piece of the Bond pie, it is not up to me to make adjustments to the series.

Of course there are those in the Bond camp who argue as you do - that the US will only buy so many tickets to a Bond film nowadays. Others say that the glut of Bond on cable and DVD hurts the films in the US. For Quantum, the major issue Sony has heard in response to the film has been the action scenes being incomprehensible. Other issues have come up - not glamorous enough; not sexy enough. But audiences appear to be checking out mostly on the action scenes.

Or maybe it is the recession.

Keep dancing...

[Bondian]

Keep dancing...

You wouldn't be Bruce Forsyth or Tess Daly would you? If you are, it's "nice to see you, to see you nice".

[Bonita]

No, I'm Ginger Rogers.

Keep dancing...

[Bondian]

No, I'm Ginger Rogers.

Keep dancing...

[YOLT]

I heard from somewhere that the worldwide total is 547m$ or something like that.

Mojo has it as $539.6m. An 8m variance at this stage sounds a bit suspect.

Mojo is coming way behind. Just as you dogbond

[blueman]

The NY Times today had an in-depth article on US BO for the year, down less than 1% in dollars, but 5% in admissions. Also, in a paragraph citing Sony's earnings, it called both Hancock and QOS blockbusters - not "lesser blockbuster" for QOS, just blockbuster. I guess if it "underperformed," it wasn't enough to merit a mention in the NY Times. FWIW.

[Jim]

Yet to understand where all this actually gets us.