289 replies to this topic

[K1Bond007]

It's been 1979 since a Bond movie was a "smash" in America.

What? GoldenEye through Die Another Day were "smash hits" in America. I don't know what you're talking about. All of them were roughly on the same level and even two of them (TND and DAD) surpassed Moonraker. Being in the top 10 doesn't mean anything.

I watched Moonraker on opening weekend. It was regarded as a great summer action adventure. It was a smash hit and finished 2nd that year at the US box office. Inflation adjusted it beats the Brosnans hands down.

I think Loomis' definition of "smash hit" in America would be "top 4 or 5" with a gross in the $200 Mil + territory inflation adjusted. I don't mean to speak for him, but I think that's what he's implying his definition to be. Is that right, Loomis?

No it doesn't beat Brosnan's "hands down." Do the math to prove to me that I'm wrong. The admissions prove Brosnan's were just as big, and as I said two of them were actually bigger.

It doesn't matter if they're in the top 10 (btw Moonraker was #5 that year, I believe). Things change, competition for the top 10 changes. Casino Royale (1967) was #3 in 1967 for instance, yet it didn't do as good as Moonraker and it got its handed to it by #2 - You Only Live Twice in the same year.

[blueman]

Yup. Now it's "$150 million is only good if it's against Harry Potter." A month ago they were predicting it would tank. Now the highest worldwide gross in years only means anything if it's against Lord of the Rings or it's more than Thunderball.

I hate seeing illegitimate $300 mil worldwide box office takes in two weeks, It's just too damn easy. 94% rating at Rotten Tomatoes, best reviews for a Bond film ever, a 93% fan approval rating on the same site, and there you go. Cheap. Easy. What a shame...

lol beautifully put.

I think mr Tinfinger was the chap who, after CR's very healthy opening weekend, was saying "well... its the second weekend that's really important, what are you guys going to say when it drops over 50%?".

Needless to say, it dropped 24%. And thus, brand new excuses had to be hastily concocted.

Yeah, love the way the target keeps getting redefined. Can't they just admit they're throwing Nerf darts and have the credibility of a Nixon aide?

[Harmsway]

It's a hit, yes, but it doesn't seem to me to be a real smash, at least not in the United States. I was hoping for CASINO ROYALE to do BATMAN BEGINS-type business, or even Bourne-type business, but I guess that just ain't possible for whatever reason or reasons.

Well, we'll see. CASINO ROYALE has a while to go as far as box office is conerned. BATMAN BEGINS only did huge business in the US after being out for a loooooong time - its opening was very lackluster. For example, compare the two (along with M:I:III):

WEEKEND 1
BATMAN BEGINS: $48,745,440
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE III: $47,743,273
CASINO ROYALE: $40,833,156

WEEKEND 2
BATMAN BEGINS: $27,589,389
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE III: $30,785,874
CASINO ROYALE: $30,785,874

WEEKEND 3
BATMAN BEGINS: $15,609,638
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE III: $11,349,570
CASINO ROYALE: $15,112,870

Not entirely dissimilar in how they've progressed in their first three weeks. Now both M:I:III and BATMAN BEGINS present two different tracks. If CASINO ROYALE's success dwindles, we can expect around M:I:III's $133 million gross. If CASINO ROYALE ends up having a long run (and I think it will be, there's nothing to fill its niche), I think it will definitely enjoy some greater success, perhaps raking in as much as $150 million.

True, it's way too early, but I don't think BOND 22 will do as well simply because it won't have the bums-on-seats-boosting novelty factor of a new actor as 007, or the same amount of hype and anticipation as CASINO ROYALE.

This isn't entirely unprecedented. TOMORROW NEVER DIES and THE WORLD IS NOT ENOUGH both had lower amounts of ticket sales than GOLDENEYE.

[K1Bond007]

Not entirely dissimilar in how they've progressed in their first three weeks. Now both M:I:III and BATMAN BEGINS present two different tracks. If CASINO ROYALE's success dwindles, we can expect around M:I:III's $133 million gross. If CASINO ROYALE ends up having a long run (and I think it will be, there's nothing to fill its niche), I think it will definitely enjoy some greater success, perhaps raking in as much as $150 million.

You're essentially right, but CR already has a sizable lead on MI3 right now and it's consistently putting up better numbers so 133 isn't even possible for CR. At a minimum it'll probably do 150. I'm betting it tops out at about 165. That may be optimistic, but right now it's slightly behind, but also out pacing Die Another Day (not adjusted for inflation).

CR would probably be doing just as good as Batman if it were a summer blockbuster, which may be why Sony targeted May 2008 initially for Bond 22.

[Harmsway]

^Well, I agree with you, K1. I don't think there's a shot in hell that CASINO ROYALE will level out at $130 million. But I did want to put the lowest possible value. I'm a believer in the higher end of the spectrum, myself.

[jaguar007]

My gut feeling is that Bond 22 will do much bigger business than CR. Kind of like Pirates of the Caribean. The audience that does not see CR in the theater may pick it up on DVD and find out what a great movie it really is (not just your typical formulastic Bond movie). Many of those people may be more eager to see Craigs second movie and go see it in the theater.

[RazorBlade]

Thanks for the link Qwerty.

Remember, children enjoy Bond too. Mine grew up on helpings of Thunderball, Moonraker and Octopussy DVDs and saw Die Another Day with me at the theatre as a 6 year old.

;-)

I'm going to take my granddaughter. And I'm dragging 2 friends who normally wouldn't go see Bond. Ha reminds me of the heady days of rounding up people to go see SERENITY.

Now there's the spirit!

How old is your grandchild? Hopefully not too young to get traumatized by the 'nasty' bits. LOL

She's 6 yr old. But a mature 6. I think she can handle the violence as most of it is off screen. After all it's only implied that Le Chriffe is beating JB's junk with the knotted rope. Also, I don't want her to grow up to be a spy. lol

[Loomis]

I think Loomis' definition of "smash hit" in America would be "top 4 or 5" with a gross in the $200 Mil + territory inflation adjusted. I don't mean to speak for him, but I think that's what he's implying his definition to be. Is that right, Loomis?

Yes, more or less. Now, by no means am I saying that CR is doing badly or that it isn't a success, and so on, but, yes, I was hoping for it to enter the top five and outgross films like MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE III. In which case, I'd call it "a Stateside smash", rather than "a Stateside hit". I remain of the view that, for some reason or reasons that are beyond me, Americans, by and large, just aren't as fanatically into James Bond as cinemagoers in most other countries appear to be.

[Dr. Noah]

Yes, more or less. Now, by no means am I saying that CR is doing badly or that it isn't a success, and so on, but, yes, I was hoping for it to enter the top five and outgross films like MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE III. In which case, I'd call it "a Stateside smash", rather than "a Stateside hit". I remain of the view that, for some reason or reasons that are beyond me, Americans, by and large, just aren't as fanatically into James Bond as cinemagoers in most other countries appear to be.

Americans are fickle, and ther hasn't been a good Bond movie in a long time. They'll have to rediscover it.

[HildebrandRarity]

Here is something really interesting:


http://www.tribute.c.../box_office.htm


The above link shows the "true" US Domestic/North American box office for the Weekend ended Dec 1-3.

Within the $115,800,000 million that most people attribute to "US Domestic" for Casino Royale is about $13,000,000 from Canada (the CAD$ figure of $14,588,000 shown in the link, adjusted fpr a 1.13 currency cross rate).

That means that about 11.2 percent of the "US Domestic" came from Canada.


NOTE ALSO: Canada has Casino Royale "opening" WELL ABOVE Happy Feet as well as grossing more than DOUBLE the amount than Happy Feet so far after 3 weekends.



The above implies 2 things about "success":

1) That Casino Royale is truly BIG everywhere and is a world-wide "success"

and

2) That Happy Feet's "success" is primarily USA based and is EVEN MORE a uniquely American "hit" in relation to Casino Royale because the percentage difference between HF and CR would be even greater in America if you were to 'net out' the Canadian numbers from "US Domestic".

Interesting, isn't it?

As an aside,

I feel really sorry for some set of American parents...they have to sit through like Happy Feet and, in an effort to satisfy their kids, have to grin and bare things for 1h 30m having to cater to 5 year old minds who've been sucked in by the advertising.

Happy Feet, in the end, is about over-fishing and over-consumption.

I suppose that the other set of American parents, out of their own subconscious guilt, felt "good" that, for at least 15 minutes(*) of their lives, they were being supportive of an effort that had an "Environmently Friendly Message" to it.

LOL!

In my opinion, Happy Feet out-doing Bond in the USA has to do with run times and some degree of guilt by American parents for America's disproportionately higher level of over-consumption of the world's resources.

;-)


*The last 12 mins of Happy Feet and the 3 minutes it took to leave the crowded theatre.

Edited by HildebrandRarity, 09 December 2006 - 01:56 PM.

[Tinfinger]

I saw my name mentioned on here...of course in a not too nice way, but, oh, well...Yep, I am surprised it's holding on as well as it is. I am eating my words. Still not sure if it's because of the lack of any other big action movie or what, but it's definitely hanging in there.

[kneelbeforezod]

I feel really sorry for some set of American parents...they have to sit through like Happy Feet and, in an effort to satisfy their kids, have to grin and bare things for 1h 30m having to cater to 5 year old minds who've been sucked in by the advertising.

Happy Feet, in the end, is about over-fishing and over-consumption.

I suppose that the other set of American parents, out of their own subconscious guilt, felt "good" that, for at least 15 minutes(*) of their lives, they were being supportive of an effort that had an "Environmently Friendly Message" to it.

LOL!

In my opinion, Happy Feet out-doing Bond in the USA has to do with run times and some degree of guilt by American parents for America's disproportionately higher level of over-consumption of the world's resources.

I wonder if you would hate Happy Feet as much if it wasn't making more money than CR in the states? You're a bit of a "fanboy" ... if someone is a supporter of Liverpool football club here in the UK, then it arbitrarily becomes their duty to hate Manchester United. For no good reason, they suddenly become "the enemy". There are teenaged boys that swear by Nintendo games consoles... and it becomes their duty to hate the Sony Playstation.

I saw the first half hour of Happy Feet and found it to be pretty charming and beautifully made. There are a lot of awful cgi cartoons out there, but I dont think Happy Feet is one of them.

I saw my name mentioned on here...of course in a not too nice way, but, oh, well...Yep, I am surprised it's holding on as well as it is. I am eating my words. Still not sure if it's because of the lack of any other big action movie or what, but it's definitely hanging in there.

Come on, take a deep breath, and repeat after me: "Casino Royale is doing well all over the world, because people really like the film and have embraced Craig as Bond"

There that wasn't so hard was it?

[HildebrandRarity]

I feel really sorry for some set of American parents...they have to sit through like Happy Feet and, in an effort to satisfy their kids, have to grin and bare things for 1h 30m having to cater to 5 year old minds who've been sucked in by the advertising.

Happy Feet, in the end, is about over-fishing and over-consumption.

I suppose that the other set of American parents, out of their own subconscious guilt, felt "good" that, for at least 15 minutes(*) of their lives, they were being supportive of an effort that had an "Environmently Friendly Message" to it.

LOL!

In my opinion, Happy Feet out-doing Bond in the USA has to do with run times and some degree of guilt by American parents for America's disproportionately higher level of over-consumption of the world's resources.

I wonder if you would hate Happy Feet as much if it wasn't making more money than CR in the states? You're a bit of a "fanboy"

No. I don't "hate" Happy Feet. I do, however, think it is a movie because it changes so radically 1h 10m in...and tanks as a result. I have seen it with my 10 year old who gave it a 6 or 7 out of 10.

I think Happy Feet is an American film for uniquely Americian audiences and targeted specifically to that audience in order to send them a message about over-fishing, etc.

Casino Royale is a very good film. Period. It just happens to be a James Bond film which is the bonus kicker.

I think i'll see it for the 6th time. It's been two weeks. I need my fix.

See yez~!

[Tinfinger]

Well, Kneel Before Zod, as much as I liked your stuff in the new Donner Cut, I am not going to go your way on this one. You go your way, and I will gladly go mine. Good day.

[kneelbeforezod]

Well, Kneel Before Zod, as much as I liked your stuff in the new Donner Cut, I am not going to go your way on this one. You go your way, and I will gladly go mine. Good day.

er.. Good day!

[triviachamp]

I was hoping for it to enter the top five and outgross films like MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE III.

Well it is going to outgross MI3 Loomis.

[EWKDSMB]

tinfinger people are not being forced to go and see it, if they didn't want to they wouldn't.
they are going to see it because it's good and word of mouth helps as well.
you go your way and i will gladly go mine.... back to the cinema to furhter boost CR's BO takings.

[Onlooker]

I think Happy Feet is an American film for uniquely Americian audiences and targeted specifically to that audience in order to send them a message about over-fishing, etc.

And that's where you're very wrong. Happy Feet is no more American than Casino Royale. George Miller is Australian and so is almost everyone else involved in it. I read an interview with George Miller recently and he said he didn't set out to give an environmental message. Its just when they did their research that they discovered just how fragile the environment there is.

Edited by Onlooker, 09 December 2006 - 10:17 PM.

[Tinfinger]

That's cool, see ya later:)

[K1Bond007]

I saw my name mentioned on here...of course in a not too nice way, but, oh, well...Yep, I am surprised it's holding on as well as it is. I am eating my words. Still not sure if it's because of the lack of any other big action movie or what, but it's definitely hanging in there.

You can't really blame it on a lack of other big action movies. It went up against a Tony Scott action flick starring Denzel Washington and it didn't even bash an eye. It's now starting its 4th week of release and it's looking very possible it's going to do better than Blood Diamond starring Leonardo DiCaprio in its first week. Hardly a huge blockbuster, but one that should see a fair amount of success. You would think anyway. It's still got its fair amount of competition.