I don't think a costumed hero's popularity has much to do with his/her potential for success in a movie. Nobody knew or cared who Blade was, and that film spawned two sequels, a TV-series, and a planned spin-off. Same goes for Hellboy and even Iron Man. Even panned movies such as The Punisher and Daredevil did pretty good business.
Very good point! Believe it or not, although I knew Blade first hand from 'Tomb Of Dracula' from the mid-seventies, I actually didn't realize it was the guy with the M65 field coat clone and crossed belts for his wooden knives. With Hellboy I daresay while most audiences realise it's a comic character, most of them still wouldn't care much for the originals, their tone and graphics perhaps just that little bit on the far side of 'enjoyable creepy'.
You avoid looking at "political" reasons, but I should add that I feel a movie called Captain America has a better shot at succeeding in Europe and other parts of the world now that a certain Mr. Bush is back in Texas...
Goes without saying, since Obama is in charge a film called 'The First Avenger: Captain America' stands a much better chance of getting halfway friendly critics. Still, I think the 'time-warp' angle with Cap coming from the 40's directly into the WOT and all that entailed (I refrain here from the term 'hysteria') would have made a particularly interesting contrast.
Yet, it's entertainment we're talking here, and that, more often than not, isn't a good platform for serious political content. I'm actually undecided, but a Cap film of, say 2006, picking up on those issues, may actually have fared better
outside the States; certainly not what a lucrative enterprise would aim for.
I think the planned reboots of the Phantom (a planned big budget movie and an upcoming, and surprisingly expensive, SyFy TV-series) and the Shadow (a Sam Raimi-produced project) also has better shots at success than their previous incarnations.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed for them, very much so! Both those previous attempts have suffered (I
think) from people regarding them as small-time Indiana Jones-wannabees. Lots of potential, zest, suspense and adventure, but unfortunately
after Spielberg let his hero off the leash. I sometimes wondered what would have happened had Lucas/Spielberg grabbed The Phantom instead of creating their own character.
People just seem to be more open to these types of films than they used to. Even a movie as uncommercial as Watchmen made around 180 million dollars worldwide. The Spirit's main reason for flopping was probably because it was a
movie, and the marketing made it look like such (this sounds logical in my head, at least!
). They may all be slightly dated characters, but it's all a question on how you update them.
I'm mostly more excited about non-superhero comic book adaptations (with the exception of The Phantom, "The Ghost Who Walks"), but I am really looking forward to seeing a Cap America movie. At least it sounds like they're trying something new with it, and I loved director Joe Johnston's take on The Rocketeer.
Tintin too, I think can be a big hit if it is as good as I hope it will be. They have some excellent source material than can make a great film that will appeal to families, much like Indiana Jones.
With you on that, except that I cannot judge the Spirit film as I haven't seen it as yet. Only thing that makes me hesitate is the question of whether the market
stays friendly to superhero flicks.