I was told in March that he's "not in the running." That's all I know. Could something have changed? Maybe, but I doubt it.
With respect, is it possible that you're not being told everything by your source(s)? Or that The Powers That Be aren't telling your source(s) everything? Or that TPTB are feeding your source(s) disinformation? Humour me (because I know he seems a hugely unlikely candidate because of his, erm, unconventional good looks), but if Craig had actually landed the role or was close to landing it, isn't it even more likely that TBTB would want it to be kept quiet? Remember when The Sun announced Craig? What if - and keep humouring me, since this is The Sun we're talking about - that paper had actually got it right? If so, Craig's subsequent denials start to make an awful lot of sense - TPTB obviously moved swiftly to put their new Bond back into the box until the official announcement. But Craig's recent comments don't sound like denials at all - quite the reverse. This isn't Clive Owen scratching his chin on a TV chatshow, or grinning on a red carpet while telling the world he's going to be very busy. Seems to me that Craig couldn't be hinting more heavily at Bond if he tried. Maybe he now feels free to make such hints because the official announcement is just weeks away (Brosnan was announced in June, I believe).
Sounds like Craig has some sort of relationship with Babs so they have had a "talk." The talk could have been nothing more than Craig saying over dinner, 'What about me?" and Babs politely saying, "Hmmm, I'll run it past the group." Craig saying publicly that he might not take the role if offered is his polite way of giving Babs an out.
To quote LETHAL WEAPON: sounds a bit thin.... anorexic.

But as you say, zen, who knows what to believe? I'm still half-convinced that Judi Dench knew what she was talking about when she said Brosnan would be returning.