19 replies to this topic

[Loomis]

I know a lot of you might think this is a pointlessly negative posting, but I have the feeling that Die Another Day may be the biggest box office disappointment for the Bond series since Licence to Kill.
Sure, millions of people will flock to see it, and it won't go straight to video or anything. It's the new Bond movie, after all. Somehow, though, I don't think it will be a massive smash along the lines of the last three Bond films.
Why do I say this? Well, where is the buzz surrounding DAD? Obviously, the film won't hit cinemas until November, so there's still plenty of time for a marketing campaign to build anticipation, but I can't help feeling that MGM aren't exactly pulling out all the stops to promote DAD, especially given the fact that this year marks both the 40th anniversary of the Bond films and the 20th entry in the series. Memory may be playing false here, but I seem to remember a far bigger media blitz for The Living Daylights (the 25th anniversary Bond) and Goldeneye kicking in months prior to those films' release.
If the studio doesn't care, why should the media? Surf the Internet's film sites (Ain't It Cool, Dark Horizons, Coming Attractions, Film Unlimited, etc. etc.) and you'll find far, far more coverage and excited speculation of such movies as Terminator 3, The Matrix 2&3, and Hulk, none of which will be with us until at least summer 2003. The Matrix Reloaded is at least 18 months away, while Hulk already has a teaser trailer online!
I'm sure that MGM's marketing blitz on DAD has yet to swing into full gear, and obviously Joe Public will become more aware of DAD nearer the time, but at the moment it seems like the studio figures there's a built-in audience for Bond and therefore no need for aggressive promotion. Wrong! In the Internet age, you need to start creating a buzz months ahead of a movie's opening. Spider-man was one of the hot topics on film sites a year ago, leading to feverish anticipation of its release. Similarly, The Sum Of All Fears, which is about to open in the US, looks like it will be a colossal smash. Sure, a lot of people might say that The Sum... will do well because of its post-September 11th topicality, but there's also the fact that film sites and magazines were talking about the project a great deal since as early as last June.
I read on a Commander Bond.net thread that nearly all of the Bond films ended up among the top ten grossers of the years they were released. Well, DAD will be lucky to make this year's top ten, given that a whole raft of blockbusters (such as Spiderman, Episode II, Men in Black II, Austin Powers in Goldmember, The Sum of All Fears) will each take considerably more money at the box office. There's also the little matter of a couple of films due for release shortly after DAD hits the world's screens. Come November, people will talk about James Bond for a couple of weeks, then go barmy over Harry Potter and The Lord of the Rings.
Sure, WE are all going crazy with anticipation over Die Another Die. The question is, does the average guy or girl on the street give a damn?
Will Die Another Day establish the Bond series as a bit like the Star Trek films, i.e. reliable moneymakers for the studio, but not really a mammoth blockbusting franchise?
In case anyone reading this is [cuss]ed off and thinking of firing off a hysterical reply accusing me of treachery to the cause of being a Bond fan, let me just say that I fully realise that if DAD doesn't make as much money as X, Y or Z, it obviously doesn't mean that DAD is an inferior as a film. In fact, I think DAD has the makings of one of the best Bond films in a long time, and I predict it will get some of the best reviews the series had ever had.

[david0007]

I am totally sick of such baseless speculation, which seems to appear so often in this site recently adn I wonder why. Maybe you can take a look at this link, DAD is still the 'most watched' trailer in Yahoo movie since its launch two weeks ago beatng out all the summer releases. And yes, it is Yahoo site, top traffic website with unique audiences of 35m, and not upcomingfilm.com as someone have quoted recently..
http://movies.yahoo.com/trailers/
The past Brosnan films have enormous goodwill because they have maintained the past standard, they are entertaining and of course the main cast have garnered excellent reviews despite some of the movies' flaws. Unlike some adolescent-skewed films, Bond films have a more balanced audience mix and for adult, their reactions are more tame, but that doesn't mean a day they are not going to see a Bond film because Bond film is pretty much a stable provided the standard is there. I also do not worry a day MGM marketing effort because this is their lifeblood and since they have recently replenishd their arsenal ($$$$) they are already throwing tons into event like Cannes, and with all the merchandizing link like Ford, Revlon, Swatch etc. all extremely popular brands, you can just expect deluge of marketing coming. As for those overly obsessed with the word 'buzz', I am a believer of 'word of mouth' which sadly is almost a forgotten word.Again, I am in no way implying there is no buzz on DAD, quite the contrary. Lastly, with all due respect to all mega-buster and in no way try to mock at them, it's just a little sentence which does not apply to all but do shed a little insight 'A billion flies eat excrement, that does not ennoble the practice.'

[ray t]

loomis, it's not the US gross that matters for Bond...It is the WORLD-WIDE gross that matters.

Austin Pooh-ers did not do better than TWINE on that basis...and neither will Sum. they may be bigger in the US but Bond WILL beat them out GLOBALLY.

I think Die Another Day WILL GROSS in the US$ 400-450 Mil range

I think Die Another Day WILL be in the TOP 10 this year. But will be behind:

Spidey
Episode 2
harry potter 2
lord of the rings 2

these 4 will be head and sholders above the rest but bond will be any where from 5th to 10th.

The BUZZ MACHINE has started and will get rolling in two months time.

James Bond will put those two movies you mentioned,( Austin Poohers and Sum...), in their place on a global basis.

and even if it doesnt, i will not give a stuff because elements of bond are in my very soul and all i care about is a DAMN MEMORABLE movie AND a terrific song and score/soundtrack!!!!


So to answer the question posed on this thread:

NO!!!!!!!

[rafterman]

it's odd, but Bond films are really the only successful films MGM makes these days...

[solitaire]

Die another day will do well at the box office,but it's November release will hurt it in the long run. I think it will be crushed by "Harry Potter" which is released in November as well,not to mention "The Two Towers" in December. Those two films are going to be massive,and let's face it the Bond series of late has been showing it's age "TND" and "TWINE" were awful,hopefully "DAD" will breathe new life into the franchise.

[Carver]

I have to agree with Loomis for some reason My mind says yes, it will be a success, and I'm hoping it will, but I have this horrible gut feeling that it will flop. Why? I don't know. But I reckon that in November, we will all be saying how [cuss] DAD was and stuff. Oh well, we will just have to wait until Nov 22nd.

[Blofeld's Cat]

To be brutally honest, I don't really care if Die Another Day turns out to be a box-office flop, as long as I, a true Bond fan, enjoys it.

But, of course, I hope it isn't.

[rafterman]

well you can't really compare hype for Bond to hype for all these other films, movies like Star Wars, Spider-Man, Harry Potter, Terminator 3....they're all a little different, fewer films...Spider-Man is brand new, Harry has a new young following, Star Wars has made few films, people are still really eager for new stuff, there hasn't been a Terminator since 91...while it's been three years since The World is not Enough and there are 18 Bonds on video....it's like the old stand by, stable, reliable, but nobody except us diehards gets too terribly excited too far ahead...Bonds are expected...wait until a month or so before, then real interest will start and bring in the people who don't surf sites like this...it will be a big movie year and Die Another Day will do fine...

[level007]

tssss.....tssss.....

i am not worried about this. And you know why ?

Remenber when TND went out in November 97 ? It opens the same day as Titanic. Everybody said that Bond will be crushed by the boat. BUT NO ! BOND made a huge success everywhere ! SO don't think about it. I am sure that DAD will be the movie of the end of the year.
On a personnal opinions, i'll be happy if DAD is a huge success, but what is th emost important to me, is that the movie is great. that's all

level007

[Turn]

Let me jump in with a few thoughts.

First, Loomis brings up The Sum of All Fears being hyped back to last June. This is true, but only in the sense that it was either filming or just gotten in the can at that time. Everything that resulted from Sept. 11 held the film back and Affleck replacing Ford created the buzz on that as we now know it. That series and Bond aren't even close.

Also, I've got to disagree with Ray T on the U.S. gross not being important. Don't forget the U.S. is the biggest movie market in the world and that Licence To Kill flopped here and people still point to that as one of the reasons besides the legal matters, the series was dormant in the early 90s. That was the big part, but remember all the stalwarts who were released (Glen, Maibaum, etc.) aftert that.

And don't you mean DAD will gross $4-500 million worldwide. To gross that just in the U.S. would put it top two or three all time which is unlikely.

And the references to being more hype during the 25th anniversary, well that is a little more significant number than 40. But then again, the competition wasn't nearly as tough and the marketing not as cut-throat and aggressive back in '87.

The fact that Bond has always been around and a reliable source of entertainment for 40 years with constant television airings, videos and a new film every two or so years puts it in a different category than other blockbusters of today. It still gets the hype and the coverage, but like we've said before, we can take less of the pomp of the Harry Potters and LOTRs if the product turns out successful and we get another in two to three more years.

[Blue Eyes]

We've had this discussion a few times now. But it's always interesting to revisit.

I'm not going to add much to it, but just say that MGM's campaigns to worry me. I saw Harts Wars on Thursday (finally opened out here) not because of the campaign, but because Zencat said it was good. But one thing that struck me, Harts War was almost a courtroom drama. Yet I dind't get a single hint of that from the trailers. In fact from the tv spots I couldn't work out a bit about the film, except for some guy named Hart who thought that Bruce Willis' character should be the one to die.

I just hope they put a bit more work in for Die Another Day.

Zencat may be able to help out here. He didn't like the teaser trialer as much as the rest of us, and also he said the LA crowd didn't like it. Care to say anymore on that Zencat?

[Loomis]

ray t (02 Jun, 2002 12:38 a.m.):
loomis, it's not the US gross that matters for Bond...It is the WORLD-WIDE gross that matters.

Austin Pooh-ers did not do better than TWINE on that basis...and neither will Sum. they may be bigger in the US but Bond WILL beat them out GLOBALLY.

I think Die Another Day WILL GROSS in the US$ 400-450 Mil range

I think Die Another Day WILL be in the TOP 10 this year. But will be behind:

Spidey
Episode 2
harry potter 2
lord of the rings 2

these 4 will be head and sholders above the rest but bond will be any where from 5th to 10th.

The BUZZ MACHINE has started and will get rolling in two months time.

James Bond will put those two movies you mentioned,( Austin Poohers and Sum...), in their place on a global basis.

and even if it doesnt, i will not give a stuff because elements of bond are in my very soul and all i care about is a DAMN MEMORABLE movie AND a terrific song and score/soundtrack!!!!


So to answer the question posed on this thread:

NO!!!!!!!

Fair enough, but re-read my original posting, where do I say that only the US gross matters?

[PaulZ108]

I have to disagree. The previous film did well and it had a pathetic campaign. Also, the trailer seems to be making an impression and is getting widespread viewing as it's being screened in front of a megahit (Attack of the Clones). Already I've overheard people talking about the film in random places since the trailer came out.

[General Koskov]

I, too, have this 'bad' feeling about Die Another Day. Not that I really believe it'll flop, but my restraint from spoiling the plot has caused me to have no inkling whether Die Another Day'll be good or not. However until now I haven't heard any bad rumours, so I'll accept that all is well.

[General Koskov]

What if Eon had, say after Moonraker, produced a Bond film only every three, four, or five years? Would that help the series not be 'the old faithful' of films, and thus be more hyped? 'Cause GoldenEye and The Spy Who Loved Me were pretty hyped after the gaps, but with Die Another Day, the gap seems to only be leaving the public behind--a.k.a. our non-Bond-fan friends mentioned in another thread.

Just a thought. My problem would be that there would be so much more waiting time and then I'd be tempted to look at spoiler articles (horreur!) which I'm able to refrain from with only a year or so since I got 'wired to Bond'.

[freemo]

I'd say DAD will eb a hit, but perhaps more despite MGMs effort than because of it, but I'd still say its pretty early folks, anoterh five or six months yet until the films released, plenty of time for the world to go Bond crazy.

[david0007]

solitaire (02 Jun, 2002 06:28 a.m.):
Die another day will do well at the box office,but it's November release will hurt it in the long run. I think it will be crushed by "Harry Potter" which is released in November as well,not to mention "The Two Towers" in December. Those two films are going to be massive,and let's face it the Bond series of late has been showing it's age "TND" and "TWINE" were awful,hopefully "DAD" will breathe new life into the franchise.

Awful! How awful? If they are awful, they will get no where near that box office, and DAD can no where command a budget of 120m. If they are awful, it's because of the scripts which have always been criticized and the workmanlike directors who are still working diligently and conservatively on the formula without a gut to blend it.

[Hardyboy]

I think there's every possibility that DAD might be the biggest hit of the Brosnan years. Certainly, there isn't much buzz on the film right now, but how much did you hear about The Sum of All Fears just a couple of months ago? Spider-Man and Attack of the Clones had been hyped for over a year before their releases, but who would have anticipated the success in America of About A Boy? No doubt the buzz about DAD will keep growing--especially since EON is building up to the film's release by putting the first 19 films back on the shelves, and a whole new line of toys is coming out.

Also, let's not forget that moviegoing has radically changed. DAD will open in thousands of theaters on the same day, and in even mid-sized cities it will be playing on several screens. DAD will likely make most of its money on its opening weekend and then experience a dropoff. I'm not too worried about DAD's boxoffice: I just hope it delivers an excellent story, acting, and thrills.

[Blue Eyes]

While I think that Die Another Day won't flop at the box-office, it will have a hard time if it wants to be a blockbuster. For starters it needs a huge opening weekend. And then it needs to hold off the competition for three weeks (the third week, I'm told, usually defines a movies block-buster status). But that said, internationally I'm sure it will do fantastically.

[Loomis]

Okay, I forgot about the trailer going with Star Wars, that's obviously going to help a lot.
And when you add up other factors - i.e. the Madonna theme song, Halle Berry, not to mention the fact that it's the new James Bond film, the latest addition to the most successful movie series of all time, etc. etc. - it may, I admit, seem strange to wonder whether DAD is going to do well at the box office.
I guess my position is the same as Blue Eyes: of course DAD will be a hit, but is MGM really doing enough to ensure this? Time will tell....