289 replies to this topic

[HildebrandRarity]

Now on the CBn main page...

James Bond Vs. Penguins For #1 At US Box Office

_{Run time of Casino Royale may be a factor}

Been tracking the Casino Royale v Happy Feet debate on the other thread and was interesting in peoples' views on what constitutes "Success" and what constitutes "Failure."

Further, do the insulated Americans (the majority of those from that country on this site seem to have a much 'wider world view', i believe) really feel that only the "US Domestic" counts when it comes to Bond's box office success?

IMO, Casino Royale will be a world wide hit likely surpassing Die Another Days box office gross by at least 10 percent globally for a variety of reasons:

- Ticket price inflation

- The significant increase of theatre counts/prints in European (including new territories e.g. Eastern Europe) and Asia (such as India which will have double DAD's screen count)over four years ago.

- The cultivation of 4 years of gamer generation demographic.

- Four year absense and New Bond curiosity factor.

In the end Casino Royale will make a sizable profit for the shareholders of Danjaq and Sony/MGM/Columbia. No question about it.

CR will not be a failure.

[CM007]

Well American Grosses are what the studios care about for the simple reason is that they are based there,it

Edited by CM007, 29 October 2006 - 04:07 PM.

[HildebrandRarity]

The US constitutes about 30 percent of Bond's historical gross. Canada is included in "US Domestic"...I don't think a lot of people know that. Canada is about 11 percent (give or take 1 percent) of "US Domestic"

Plus, the US consumption of Bond peaked at Thunderball percentage wise. US admissions (includes Canada) were about 24~ish million
for Brosnan Bonds. TSWLM and Moonraker were also about 22-24 million admissions. Thunderball admissions were 70 million tickets. I cite this to indicate that US admissions have levelled off since 1977.

On the other hand, other jurisdictions' consumption of Bond has been increasing and will CONTINUE to increase exponentially.

Also, the last I checked, this Bond movie is being financed by Japanese money, not American money. Am I mistaken?

As for Casino Royale being a quality film vis-a-vis Die Another Day NOT being mentioned in my list...well, I have not seen it to judge its quality in relation to DAD...so how can put that into my list. And isn't "quality" subjective/in-the-eye-of-the-beholder sort of thing?

I cited mainly tangible/concrete/measurable number-oriented factors in that list.

We'll only figure out quality when we actually consume the product. Non?

Also, do you seriously think Casino Royale will only gross 200-300 world-wide?

Seriously? Or is that a tainted/biased anti-Craig oriented projection?

[CM007]

The US constitutes about 30 percent of Bond's historical gross. Canada is included in "US Domestic"...I don't think a lot of people know that. Canada is about 11 percent (give or take 1 percent) of "US Domestic"

Plus, the US consumption of Bond peaked at Thunderball percentage wise. US admissions (includes Canada) were about 24~ish million
for Brosnan Bonds. TSWLM and Moonraker were also about 22-24 million admissions. Thunderball admissions were 70 million tickets. I cite this to indicate that US admissions have levelled off since 1977.

On the other hand, other jurisdictions' consumption of Bond has been increasing and will CONTINUE to increase exponentially.

Also, the last I checked, this Bond movie is being financed by Japanese money, not American money. Am I mistaken?

As for Casino Royale being a quality film vis-a-vis Die Another Day NOT being mentioned in my list...well, I have not seen it to judge its quality in relation to DAD...so how can put that into my list. And isn't "quality" subjective/in-the-eye-of-the-beholder sort of thing?

I cited mainly tangible/concrete/measurable number-oriented factors in that list.

We'll only figure out quality when we actually consume the product. Non?

Also, do you seriously think Casino Royale will only gross 200-300 world-wide?

Seriously? Or is that a tainted/biased anti-Craig oriented projection?

No...I

[HildebrandRarity]

Well American Grosses are what the studios care about...

I thought studios only care about pure profit.

American grosses (at 30 percent of total gross) are only about 30 percent of the profit picture. And American grosses have been becoming a lesser and lesser part of James Bond's formula for success over the decades.

Yes, American gross is important. But any shareholder will tell you about "diversification" and "growth markets" and that, in the end, only the WORLD WIDE number matters.

They're cutting deals for Casino Royale to be shown on regular tv in every corner of the planet in a couple of years time. Not just on CBS or NBC or ABC or Fox.

I would have thought Americans on CBn would have had a wider world view. Perhaps I was mistaken.

[CM007]

Well American Grosses are what the studios care about...

I thought studios only care about pure profit.

American grosses (at 30 percent of total gross) are only about 30 percent of the profit picture. And American grosses have been becoming a lesser and lesser part of James Bond's formula for success over the decades.

Yes, American gross is important. But any shareholder will tell you about "diversification" and "growth markets" and that, in the end, only the WORLD WIDE number matters.

They're cutting deals for Casino Royale to be shown on regular tv in every corner of the planet in a couple of years time. Not just on CBS or NBC or ABC or Fox.

I would have thought Americans on CBn would have had a wider world view. Perhaps I was mistaken.

I

[Loomis]

America, yeah!

LOL! But, remember, your beloved (and mine ) DIE ANOTHER DAY didn't even crack the 2002 US box office top ten. Safe to say that CASINO ROYALE will make this year's top ten, though, and I'll venture a prediction: number seven.

When the world starts lining up to see the latest big budget productions from Angola or Kazakhstan, then we'll talk.

OT, but what the heck is with Kazakhstan's ludicrous overreaction to Borat? I mean, the French didn't sue over Clouseau (although, granted, Clouseau wasn't a raging antisemite and all-round barbarian), and don't they realise the boom in tourism that's going to result from the popularity of the character (maybe mostly just drunken young Brits on stag weekends, perhaps, but, still....)?

[CharlieBind]

The United States of America ***IS*** the single largest market in the world.

Hasn't India surpassed it? It's certainly the biggest producer of Non-English speaking movies.

I understand that Dr No and From Russia With Love initially fared poorly in America and were only box office successes there after Goldfinger hit the jackpot. It was the non-American audiences which made those films a success and isn't it true that historically Bond has fared better in the non-American market.

Coming back to 'success' and 'failure'. I'm not sure if there can any failures nowadays, once you factor in DVD rental/sales, sale of tv/satillite/cable rights and various merchandise.

Look at Hulk or Superman Returns, both 'under-performed' at the box-office, both are getting sequels. Or, an older example. Highlander, which back in '86 flopped at the cinema, but gained an audience via video rental and so spawned a francise.

[HildebrandRarity]

Also, the last I checked, this Bond movie is being financed by Japanese money, not American money. Am I mistaken?

Technically, yeah.

The world LOVES American films. Loves them, I tell ya! They can't get enough of John Wayne and other American icons.

Also, do you seriously think Casino Royale will only gross 200-300 world-wide?

Seriously? Or is that a tainted/biased anti-Craig oriented projection?

Or is your overestimation of CR's box office pull based upon your own pro-Craig/CR prejudice?

It's Japanese money in the end. Not American money. Just like Honda and Toyota plants in America are funded by Japanese money.

James Bond is sure an "American Icon". Yup! LOL. Get your head out of it GS. LOL!!!

And, no. I have no pro-Craig/CR bias. I have a HUGE pro-James Bond bias and have had one since i was 5.

Connery, Laz, Rog, Dalton, Pierce, DC...i love each and every one of their own individual interpretations.

So, if i do have a bias, it's for the new "James Bond" movie. I'd see it if Pierce was in it...or Jackman...or Owen. Craig is in it and he seems good enough for me.

[Moore Baby Moore]

Look at Hulk or Superman Returns, both 'under-performed' at the box-office, both are getting sequels. Or, an older example. Highlander, which back in '86 flopped at the cinema, but gained an audience via video rental and so spawned a francise.

Hulk's getting a total reboot with a new cast. Not the same thing.

Edited by Moore Baby Moore, 29 October 2006 - 05:11 PM.

[CharlieBind]

Look at Hulk or Superman Returns, both 'under-performed' at the box-office, both are getting sequels. Or, an older example. Highlander, which back in '86 flopped at the cinema, but gained an audience via video rental and so spawned a francise.

Hulk's getting a total reboot with a new cast. Not the same thing.

Hulk's getting a follow-up movie because it made money. If the original movie didn't do you think they'd have made another movie so soon? From what I understand it made a fortune from toys alone and a cheaper follow-up was always on the cards (I remember it getting talked about a year or so after the original was released).

Edited by CharlieBind, 29 October 2006 - 05:20 PM.

[doublenoughtspy]

Foreign markets have always been significant to the Bond profit margins.

However, one thing that hasn't been mentioned is the fact that foreign markets keep a higher percentage of the box office take than the American market.

So if a film grosses 100 million US - studios might get back 45-50 million.

If a film grosses 100 million overseas - studios might get back 30-40 million.

And even then they sometimes have to fight for it (look at all the lawsuits Icon Productions was involved in to get foreign box office takes.)

I would be very surprised if CR does more than DAD - but that hasn't really been their goal, IMHO. The 3 leads (Daniel, Eva, Mads) show that they aren't after the flavor of the month or who can put the most butts in seats.

The budget is smaller than DAD as well.

Loomis I see your point about DAD re: top 10, but keep in mind that OHMSS was in the top 10 for the year in every market it played in (and was in the top 5 in Britain and number 1 in Australia) - but it is still considered a "failure" at the box office.

With the huge foreign market push, all the revenue streams (broadcast, cable, in-flight movies, DVD, etc.) CR will easily make back it's budget, regardless of how well it does in America.

[HildebrandRarity]

..if your own people don't like your product, then yes, it feels like failure.

That's just plain 'dumb-down' thinking.

Feelings have zilch to do with hard profits. Money talks.

Casino Royale will make a nice profit from its theatrical run...and tons and tons more from cable, dvd, regular tv from EVERY CORNER OF THE WORLD over the next two years ... and then continue to make more and more and more money every single time it's shown on tv and when they release future box sets with each new James Bond movie that comes out.

Dr No, the LEAST successful James Bond movie EVER in the U.S. during it's release, continues to make money today every time it's shown on tv anywhere in the world and as part of future box sets.

Talk intelligently, please, GS instead of with your admitted insulated, miopic and negative bias. LOL

Edited by HildebrandRarity, 29 October 2006 - 05:39 PM.

[HildebrandRarity]

CR will have to struggle to make a profit for the company, as even the most successful films do.

Do you even know what constitutes "profit"? Do you know the equation to measure it? (I mean numbers wise...not "feelings" wise)

[Publius]

America, yeah!

That's all well and good. But HildebrandRarity is right. The rest of the world is only going to become more significant for Bond (and many other movies, I'm sure), and this will be more apparent with CR than it was with DAD four years ago. We've got growing economies in Eastern Europe, India, and elsewhere, and it's a trend that won't reverse as long as the US is...well, without getting into specific domestic issues, let's just say there's reason to believe we won't be topping every list worth being proud of anymore. The Cold War is over.

And curiously not a single mention of CR being a quality film there in your list. You mentioned basically some fancy accounting manipulations, but in the end you never stated that the film was going to be so good that millions of people would see it and refer it to friends.

Well, we haven't seen it yet. I know you like to draw these battle lines, but we're all in the dark until it's almost too late to make predictions before the real numbers start rolling in.

[Loomis]

Loomis I see your point about DAD re: top 10, but keep in mind that OHMSS was in the top 10 for the year in every market it played in (and was in the top 5 in Britain and number 1 in Australia) - but it is still considered a "failure" at the box office.

Well, that's crazy. Granted, it didn't do THUNDERBALL business, but then only THUNDERBALL did that. And it couldn't have cost all that much relative to THUNDERBALL and YOU ONLY LIVE TWICE (just guessing on that, mind).

Elsewhere, CR will have to struggle to make a profit for the company, as even the most successful films do.

Why? It cost next to nothing (in blockbuster/modern Bond terms, anyway), and is by far the most hyped film of the moment. It also belongs to the most successful franchise of all time (arguably), which you yourself suggest is still doing brilliantly (judging by how you often mention that DIE ANOTHER DAY was a smash, and let's not forget that that was just four years ago - Brosnan may have gone, but there's zero evidence that the vast global audience for Bond has gone with him). What's more, the reviews will be - at worst - mostly positive. Yeah, CASINO ROYALE will really have its work cut out for it.

[HildebrandRarity]

Elsewhere, CR will have to struggle to make a profit for the company, as even the most successful films do.

Why?

Because he said so. And his opinion is fact. And because a certain flabby 54 year old Irishman is no longer in the lead role.

And also because the dark forces he's channelling from the old sith order (who, by the way, have made America The Great their new spiritual home) have 'felt' the future and they know more than any other. And that, too, is a fact.

So don't argue with him or his feelings.

[jaguar007]

You can't compare the International market for Bond with the international market for most other high profile films. For the past 25-30 years, most of Bond's box office have come from outside the US. LTK made $34million US in 1989 and grossed $156million worldwide. Also to say that CR Royale will only gross $200million worldwide is insane, especially when considering LTK made 156million in 1989. Wether or not it does DAD business remained to be seen.

[Auric64]

I`m sure the people at SONY have an idea as to how much they think CR should make, in today`s market. Whether it reaches that figure remains to be seen.

If CR doesn`t make the figure SONY is looking for, will they press the panic button, and demand changes for Bond 22? Can they force EON to change Bond 22?

After Spider Man 3 comes out next May, (and with no guarantee of a fourth movie) SONY will only have Bond left as a franchise. Whether we, as Bond fans believe that Bond cannot fail at the box office, SONY may feel differently, and demand EON make changes for the next film, to protect that franchise, should CR not do as well as they thought it would.

Will that then change the direction that Bond 22 is supposed to go in, with it being a direct continuation/sequel to CR, (and a similar type gritty back to basics approach) thus undoing all what EON wanted to achieve, which was to bring the series back down to Earth after the excess of DAD?

Would Craig be comfortable in a GE/TND/TWINE like film, should EON have to agree to SONY`s demands to return Bond to the safety net of these formula type Bond films, or would/could EON just up and leave, taking the franchise to another studio?

Best

Andy

[K1Bond007]

I`m sure the people at SONY have an idea as to how much they think CR should make, in today`s market. Whether it reaches that figure remains to be seen.

If CR doesn`t make the figure SONY is looking for, will they press the panic button, and demand changes for Bond 22? Can they force EON to change Bond 22?

I don't think Sony has all that much say. They get a seat at the table, but at the end of the day, if EON wants it their way they're gonna get it.

I don't think it's all that possible that Casino Royale will be a failure. They'll make their money back somehow. The true test of Daniel Craig and the series as it is will be Bond 22. Curiosity will drive Royale to profitability and even if it isn't an instant success it'll get there over time. As it has been stated The World Is Not Enough failed to make a profit at the box office for MGM - the only Bond film, but it instantly made it all back once it made its way to DVD. That doesn't even count (I don't think) advertising deals (both on screen and off) and whatever else Bond-related sales it may have drudged up - books, action figures, posters, DVD/VHS/TV sales for past films etc. The budget for CR is supposedly cheaper than even TWINE so it supposedly has even more leeway at the BO. (I say supposedly because I don't buy the 72m figure)

[kneelbeforezod]

After Spider Man 3 comes out next May, (and with no guarantee of a fourth movie) SONY will only have Bond left as a franchise.

Just a minor point... but Spiderman 4 is a certainty.

[Auric64]

After Spider Man 3 comes out next May, (and with no guarantee of a fourth movie) SONY will only have Bond left as a franchise.

Just a minor point... but Spiderman 4 is a certainty.

Right. I hadn`t heard that. It`s been said that it`s extremely doubtful that Tobey Maguire and Kirsten Dunst will return, (should there be a 4th film) so can you say how you know there will be a Spiderman 4?

Something you`ve read to back that statement up, or just a gut feeling?

Best

Andy

[JimmyBond]

After Spider Man 3 comes out next May, (and with no guarantee of a fourth movie) SONY will only have Bond left as a franchise.

Just a minor point... but Spiderman 4 is a certainty.

Right. I hadn`t heard that. It`s been said that it`s extremely doubtful that Tobey Maguire and Kirsten Dunst will return, (should there be a 4th film) so can you say how you know there will be a Spiderman 4?

Something you`ve read to back that statement up, or just a gut feeling?

Best

Andy

Here you go:

Spider Man 4 confirmed

They're going to do it with or without Maguire.

[Gobi-1]

Even though Superman Returns had a disappointing gross at the US box office, it still finally crossed the 200 Million dollar mark something Casino Royale may not and probably will not do.

Here's how I'll guage Casino Royale's succes keeping in mind the previous Bond film grosses and the fact we don't know how general audiecnes will respond to Daniel Craig and the new direction.

US Opening Weekend
Very Successful - Above 50 million
Successful - 40 to 49 million
Moderately Successful - 30 to 39 million
Disappointing - 20 to 29 million
Very Disappointing - Below 20 million
Box Office Bomb - Below 10 million

US Final Gross
Biggest Bond Ever! - Above 200 million (not likely but never say never)
Very Successful - Above 160 Million (Topping Die Another Day)
Successful - 130 to 159 million
Moderately Successful - 100 to 129 million
Disappointing - 75 to 99 million
Very Disappointing 50 to 74 million
Box Office Bomb - Below 50 million

[HildebrandRarity]

Even though Superman Returns had a disappointing gross at the US box office, it still finally crossed the 200 Million dollar mark something Casino Royale may not and probably will not do.

Here's how I'll guage Casino Royale's succes keeping in mind the previous Bond film grosses and the fact we don't know how general audiecnes will respond to Daniel Craig and the new direction.

US Opening Weekend
Very Successful - Above 50 million
Successful - 40 to 49 million
Moderately Successful - 30 to 39 million
Disappointing - 20 to 29 million
Very Disappointing - Below 20 million
Box Office Bomb - Below 10 million

US Final Gross
Biggest Bond Ever! - Above 200 million (not likely but never say never)
Very Successful - Above 160 Million (Topping Die Another Day)
Successful - 130 to 159 million
Moderately Successful - 100 to 129 million
Disappointing - 75 to 99 million
Very Disappointing 50 to 74 million
Box Office Bomb - Below 50 million

I agree with your synopsis. I think it's bang on!

But what about Total World Wide keeping in mind that theatre/print/screen count will be higher than DAD.

[Moore Baby Moore]

Even though Superman Returns had a disappointing gross at the US box office, it still finally crossed the 200 Million dollar mark something Casino Royale may not and probably will not do.

Not really a fair comparison with Casiino because Superman Returns cost $260m to make. Casino cost less than half of that, although I think the 72m is also way too low. CR also started off rather nicely by selling the tv rights to ITV for a record amount and also landed a multi-million dollar sponsorship from Ford. Casino has already started off with some decent money in the bank for sure.

Much of Superman Returns' budget was due to failed earlier attempts over a span of at least 12 years. The final cost of the actual film was $185-204 million, depending on who you ask. A ton of money was wasted on proposed "re-imaginings" that would have changed everything but the character's name. The same thing happened to the first Star Trek movie. Half of its final price tag was comprised of a decade's worth of failed revivial attempts.

[Gobi-1]

Even though Superman Returns had a disappointing gross at the US box office, it still finally crossed the 200 Million dollar mark something Casino Royale may not and probably will not do.

Not really a fair comparison with Casiino because Superman Returns cost $260m to make. Casino cost less than half of that, although I think the 72m is also way too low. CR also started off rather nicely by selling the tv rights to ITV for a record amount and also landed a multi-million dollar sponsorship from Ford. Casino has already started off with some decent money in the bank for sure.

Well there are different measures of success. 200 million is disappointing to Superman because of the extreme costs and the huge sums Spider-man raked in. Superman had financial expectations it just didn't met. However 200 million would be jaw dropping for a Bond film to make in the US alone.

For example The Prestige only cost 40 million to make so it's 14 million opening weekend isn't as disappointing as it seems. It will make it's budget back and more. Still compare it with Saw III which cost 10 million to make and raked in 34 million over this weekend. Triple your budget in one weekend, you can't get more successful then that. Most horror films are way more profitable then your major Hollywood blockbusters.

If Casino Royale can't top 34 million we may be in trouble.

[Vanish]

If it's a good film, it'll greatly outweigh the "success" of Die Another Day, in my eyes.

[Skudor]

If it's a good film, it'll greatly outweigh the "success" of Die Another Day, in my eyes.

Nice sentiment.

[Fro]

You guys do know Sony only owns 20% of MGM, right? They are distributing it so they probably have put up some $$, but they don't control Bond.

Providence Equity Partners (29%)
Texas Pacific Group (21%)
Sony (20%)
Comcast (20%)
Credit Suisse (7%)
Quadrangle Group (3%)

That's the breakdown of MGM's ownership.